When about half the mass in orbit is Starlink, comprising more than half the mass launched by Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy, and Starlink has about 2M subscribers,

When about half the mass in orbit is Starlink, comprising more than half the mass launched by Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy, and Starlink has about 2M subscribers, I am skeptical about the TAM for Starship. If Starship has a TAM, we would see it and be able to estimate it based on existing rockets' customers and how riding down the cost curve would change the TAM. Space launch capacity has a long sales cycle. There should be customers for 10 launches per day lining up. If you believe a Mars colony is realistic, OK, it will take that kind of capacity to build it. But that, like Starlink, sounds like another SpaceX project without outside launch customers. I would applaud taking thousands of Elon's fans to Mars to build their paradise, but there are plenty of reasons to think that will not happen in time to be relevant to Starship.