This argument seems to say: I observe a pattern, therefore it is caused by a conspiracy. Every pattern isn't caused by conspiracy. The nature of knowledge is t

This argument seems to say: I observe a pattern, therefore it is caused by a conspiracy. Every pattern isn't caused by conspiracy. The nature of knowledge is to first establish that there is a pattern (I've hypothesized the same one), and then look for what correlates with it. In this case, it's been well-known - or rather the leading issue - in international relations for generations, if not centuries: How do people get into dumb wars (all wars are awful, a very few are necesssary)?