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Ludricrous estimates are usually a symptom of other organizational quirks. I'd compare it to the military's $435 hammer [0], from the outside you'd think it ma
by makeitdouble 3y ago
Ludricrous estimates are usually a symptom of other organizational quirks.
I'd compare it to the military's $435 hammer [0], from the outside you'd think it makes no sense, but that's the logical end of a series of processes that all somehwat made sense on their own.
A common issue I've seen is devs having to put their head on the chopping block when making estimates. After the second or third time they get seriously punished for blowing pat deadlines, they'll happily go with around 10 times their own estimate. But there's so many other incentives where going with a "done in 2h" estimate is just a bad decision.
[0] https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/post/the-pentagons-435-hammer/2011/05/19/AGoGKHMH_blog.html https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/post/the-penta...
- dahart 3y agoOh wow, I had no idea the story of the $600 hammer was still around. This has been a talking point for like 40 years now, and it was a different number when I was a little kid. Turns out the story had been debunked at least 13 years before the article you posted was written, and is 25 years old now. The military never paid hundreds of dollars for a hammer, someone just averaged a bunch of financial R&D overhead and then someone else took the numbers out of context and spread it around. https://www.govexec.com/federal-news/1998/12/the-myth-of-the-600-hammer/5271/ https://www.govexec.com/federal-news/1998/12/the-myth-of-the...
- makeitdouble 3y agoThe averageing of the numbers is also the take of the article I checked, but to me it stays a good example of the phenomenon: that contract with no itemized prices and a high average price per item fits inside a procedure that probably isn't bad in itself, but gets turned into spicy headlines.
- arh68 3y agoI would not say it has been "debunked". The stories are real; they're not all "accounting misunderstandings" or what have you. [1] https://www.airforcetimes.com/news/your-air-force/2018/10/23/air-force-puts-the-kibosh-on-the-1300-coffee-cup/ https://www.airforcetimes.com/news/your-air-force/2018/10/23...