This is an interesting source of evidence, but I think the analysis might be wrong because it only accounts for the direction of lateral motion, and doesn't acc

This is an interesting source of evidence, but I think the analysis might be wrong because it only accounts for the direction of lateral motion, and doesn't account for the fact that the main direction of travel around the moment of impact isn't northeast or west, it's _down_. The speed would also not have been constant. I believe you would get the same effect even if it was traveling straight down: rising pitch from acceleration due to gravity, then falling pitch as the angle to the camera goes from zero to 90 degrees.