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Yes, I think this article is positing 99th percentile AI upside in the next five years, to the extent that tech and SaaS valuations will be the least of our con

by tibbar 3y ago

Yes, I think this article is positing 99th percentile AI upside in the next five years, to the extent that tech and SaaS valuations will be the least of our concerns. AGI that can replicate *Salesforce* nearly instantly from a video and *migrate all your data* within 20 minutes is probably society-ending as we know it. Forget human-level AI -- that's "100 human-years in 20 minutes" level AI.

block_dagger 3y ago
As I was reading, my intuition said the human couldn’t take the video and explain it in 20 minutes. Also the data could not be migrated that fast for any kind of real scale. However, GPT-4 is fairly close to filling in the AI side of that equation. Five years is a long time in AI research these days.
- tibbar 3y ago
  GPT-4 is amazing in short context windows, and you can patch together more complex stuff out of that, but an app with the complexity of Salesforce, with the associated backend, is orders of magnitude more complex (the difference between a React component and hundreds of years of human effort.) If it's allowed to cut corners and not actually build a working, scalable backend, then maybe -- but that sort of belies the premise of being able to migrate all your data. Teams/companies of humans are society's current way of producing superhuman structures. If AI can just perform at that level within 5 years, it's moved way, way past the current bar, is all I'm saying.
  - sdenton4 3y ago
    Where was the bar five years ago?
    - packetlost 3y ago
      Not much lower than it is now? The things that have gotten dramatically better are producing passable creative works, text->speech/speech->text but not much in terms of actually automating anything that requires a modicum of logical reasoning.
freeone3000 3y ago
I know several companies working on the latter and several companies working on the former. Jam ‘em together and suddenly humankind has reached 100 years of progress? No way; this is just the start. Imagine what we can accomplish once all the codewriting and data mungling has been taken off of our hands — what wonders we can dream.
- __loam 3y ago
  what bugs we're going to have to fix when these things inevitably fuck up because they're at their core stochastic machines.

by tibbar 3y ago

block_dagger 3y ago

As I was reading, my intuition said the human couldn’t take the video and explain it in 20 minutes. Also the data could not be migrated that fast for any kind of real scale. However, GPT-4 is fairly close to filling in the AI side of that equation. Five years is a long time in AI research these days.

tibbar 3y ago
GPT-4 is amazing in short context windows, and you can patch together more complex stuff out of that, but an app with the complexity of Salesforce, with the associated backend, is orders of magnitude more complex (the difference between a React component and hundreds of years of human effort.) If it's allowed to cut corners and not actually build a working, scalable backend, then maybe -- but that sort of belies the premise of being able to migrate all your data. Teams/companies of humans are society's current way of producing superhuman structures. If AI can just perform at that level within 5 years, it's moved way, way past the current bar, is all I'm saying.
- sdenton4 3y ago
  Where was the bar five years ago?
  - packetlost 3y ago
    Not much lower than it is now? The things that have gotten dramatically better are producing passable creative works, text->speech/speech->text but not much in terms of actually automating anything that requires a modicum of logical reasoning.

freeone3000 3y ago

I know several companies working on the latter and several companies working on the former. Jam ‘em together and suddenly humankind has reached 100 years of progress? No way; this is just the start. Imagine what we can accomplish once all the codewriting and data mungling has been taken off of our hands — what wonders we can dream.

__loam 3y ago
what bugs we're going to have to fix when these things inevitably fuck up because they're at their core stochastic machines.