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Cratering motor fuel sales in Norway show the death spiral that can end oil

4 points by jseliger 3y ago

jacquesm 3y ago
It's a perfect case of externalization: Norway sells oil to other countries (recently in record volumes[1]), these then burn that oil. In return Norway subsidizes it's own electric fleet to the hilt and has penalized ICEs [3]. The result, while locally a big positive isn't nearly as big a positive if they weren't selling their oil to finance all this. And with the tax base of gasoline cars rapidly dwindling there will come a point where this scheme will no longer work and the electric vehicles will be taxed to the point that the income thus generated will be enough to support the various infrastructure costs. [1] https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/norway/crude-oil-exports https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/norway/crude-oil-expor... [2] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-26/norway-pulls-the-plug-on-ev-tax-incentives-and-subsidies#xj4y7vzkg https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-26/norway-pu... [3] Various taxes on the vehicles themselves as well as taxes on ownership and fuel.
toomuchtodo 3y ago
https://robbieandrew.github.io/EV/ https://robbieandrew.github.io/EV/
happytiger 3y ago
Wait are you saying that tax incentives can cause transitions in transportation infrastructure and are in fact effective? Huh. Maybe the US should stop subsidizing the oil industry. Hard to take electric futures seriously when tax dollars are funneled into oil projects constantly. However I don’t believe the national defense priorities will allows the US to make a similar transition. EVs are not the vehicle of choice in a combat war zone — yet — and that stands in the way of the transitions in ways most of the public does not realize.
perrygeo 3y ago
There's a fundamental error in this article. Gasoline != Oil. Beware shady accounting. So Norway reduced gasoline demand. Cool. It also increased diesel demand by roughly the same amount over the chart's timeframe. Oh and those EV tires, plastic parts, and the roads they drive on require oil products, driving up oil demand further. A barrel of oil can be processed into roughly 45% gasoline, 25% diesel, 10% jet fuel, and 20% misc (when you process a barrel of oil, you don't really get to choose). If you only need the diesel, jet fuel, plastic stock, and tar - what are you going to do with the gasoline? Toss it in a hole in the ground? The gasoline will still need to be refined off (and likely burned elsewhere) to get at the other petrol products that Norway demands. But if you cook the books right, you can make it look like someone else is burning the gasoline so it's __their__ problem, not yours. An honest framing of the problem, and honest accounting, would show that Norway's EV play has done very little to decrease its reliance on oil. It's only gasoline demand that's declining. If you can't make that basic distinction, you shouldn't be writing articles about it.

4 points by jseliger 3y ago

It's a perfect case of externalization: Norway sells oil to other countries (recently in record volumes[1]), these then burn that oil. In return Norway subsidizes it's own electric fleet to the hilt and has penalized ICEs [3]. The result, while locally a big positive isn't nearly as big a positive if they weren't selling their oil to finance all this. And with the tax base of gasoline cars rapidly dwindling there will come a point where this scheme will no longer work and the electric vehicles will be taxed to the point that the income thus generated will be enough to support the various infrastructure costs. [1] https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/norway/crude-oil-exports https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/norway/crude-oil-expor... [2] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-26/norway-pulls-the-plug-on-ev-tax-incentives-and-subsidies#xj4y7vzkg https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-07-26/norway-pu... [3] Various taxes on the vehicles themselves as well as taxes on ownership and fuel.

toomuchtodo 3y ago

https://robbieandrew.github.io/EV/ https://robbieandrew.github.io/EV/

happytiger 3y ago

Wait are you saying that tax incentives can cause transitions in transportation infrastructure and are in fact effective? Huh. Maybe the US should stop subsidizing the oil industry. Hard to take electric futures seriously when tax dollars are funneled into oil projects constantly. However I don’t believe the national defense priorities will allows the US to make a similar transition. EVs are not the vehicle of choice in a combat war zone — yet — and that stands in the way of the transitions in ways most of the public does not realize.

perrygeo 3y ago

There's a fundamental error in this article. Gasoline != Oil. Beware shady accounting. So Norway reduced gasoline demand. Cool. It also increased diesel demand by roughly the same amount over the chart's timeframe. Oh and those EV tires, plastic parts, and the roads they drive on require oil products, driving up oil demand further. A barrel of oil can be processed into roughly 45% gasoline, 25% diesel, 10% jet fuel, and 20% misc (when you process a barrel of oil, you don't really get to choose). If you only need the diesel, jet fuel, plastic stock, and tar - what are you going to do with the gasoline? Toss it in a hole in the ground? The gasoline will still need to be refined off (and likely burned elsewhere) to get at the other petrol products that Norway demands. But if you cook the books right, you can make it look like someone else is burning the gasoline so it's __their__ problem, not yours. An honest framing of the problem, and honest accounting, would show that Norway's EV play has done very little to decrease its reliance on oil. It's only gasoline demand that's declining. If you can't make that basic distinction, you shouldn't be writing articles about it.