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Debt is continuing to become more and more expensive. Lenders are not lending to people or companies unless the interest rate is much higher than the risk-free
by nine_zeros 3y ago
Debt is continuing to become more and more expensive. Lenders are not lending to people or companies unless the interest rate is much higher than the risk-free 5% offered by the US government.
VCs are not getting funds from LPs who all would much rather invest in US government treasuries for the easy 5%.
Public stocks are often bought with margin money (which is leverage, aka debt). Now, margin money lenders are charging a higher interest rate on that margin, causing borrowers of margin money to not borrow as much. Thus, stocks are not being bid up as much, causing stock prices to drop.
Mortgage rates track the 10-year Treasury yield and thus mortgage loan rates are going higher and higher. Housing market is expected to sag, if not go into a correction or a crash.
For the average person, the only parts that are affected are:
1. If their employer is dependent on cheap money (real estate, VC tech, growth stocks) these employers will either need to innovate HARD or start laying off people under pressure from investors.
2. If you were looking to borrow money for some reason (say, a house or a car), you are looking at insane interest rates.
But all of this happens in any interest rate rise. What is interesting about this particular threshold of 5% is that the world hasn't seen US treasury rates at this level since the last great recession. Most companies, stock holders, people in general don't know how to evaluate this new world of a higher rate. Should you buy that car you desperately need? Is relocation for an RTO job even possible?
Higher interest rates, lower investment rates can have a devastating impact on people's lives.