5 ms·

Oh the Wolf wanted to join the chicken coop? Get out of here!

samtho 3y ago
Putin was actively attempting to repair relations with western democracies during the early 2000s. 9/11 happened and helped spur two American-led, endless wars from which no clear goal could be defined. “The West” focused its geopolitical efforts and energy into these conflicts instead of dancing with the Russian President. Meanwhile, Putin was intent on making his mark in history and likely became disillusioned to playing nicely with “The West.” He likely did not feel comfortable with the lukewarm attitude towards Russia and the US’s preoccupations with war combined with the EU’s indifference towards Russia allowed Putin to arm unsupervised. We saw him beginning to seek to close off all ingress points into Russia, but we didn’t understand its significance at the time. The huge swath of land that encompasses modern day Russia has been invaded a multitude of times through history and via these geographic “gateways” that exist on land that were mostly under soviet control during the Cold War, but now cannot be adequately controlled by Russia without conquest. Putin put Russia into a state of readiness for future invasions, banking on the fact that quick takeovers would receive limited backlash from western powers and the international community. The invasion of Georgia closed off one of these gateways, a successful invasion of Ukraine would have closed three including the one in Crimea that Russia “annexed” (read: stole) in 2014. I do not blame the Russian people for Putin’s actions - which he needs to be held responsible for - and only wish the Russian people could finally enjoy democratic elections and they can finally put the days of needing a “strong man” in charge behind them. I think at that point will be able to welcome Russia back into the global community.
- s1artibartfast 3y ago
  I think that's all true, but you also have to take into account NATO expansion. I don't fault NATO or Russia for their fear of each other, as each of them continually maneuvered for better military advantage against each other. I think it's hard to imagine the West welcoming Russia into the global community as long has it presents a credible military threat, no matter what the leadership is. Similarly, I can't imagine Russia ever agreeing to a unilateral demilitarization under any leadership.
  - beebmam 3y ago
    Russia is welcome into the West as long as it gives up imperial ambitions in Eastern Europe. Putin and other Russian elites are not interested in giving those ambitions up. Certain factions of Russia do want to give up imperial ambitions and join the EU. They'd be welcome to, if they can renounce imperialism. Maybe one day.
    - s1artibartfast 3y ago
      The problem is that there is no way to prove a negative. Even if a hypothetical Russia had no imperial ambitions, it can't prove it.
      - ericfrazier 3y ago
        Not attacking its neighbors would be a goods start.
        s1artibartfast 3y ago
        And then?
  - _kbh_ 3y ago
    > I think that's all true, but you also have to take into account NATO expansion. The most ironic part of this is that Russias invasion of Ukraine is directly responsible for recent NATO expansion.
    - s1artibartfast 3y ago
      agreed, Although I think they were in a dammed if you do, dammed if you dont situation. Especially once NATO declared that it would work towards and eventually accept Ukraine as member, which immediately preceded the invasion of Crimea.
      - _kbh_ 3y ago
- jemmyw 3y ago
  Reading too much Peter Zeihan? I don't put any creedence to his gateways hypothesis. It smacks of rationalisation. There are simpler explanations that don't have to ignore Russia being a nuclear state that doesn't worry about a mass land invasion from Europe. For example, Ukraine turning to Europe is just disastrous for Putin's authority. So the war stops Ukraine from prospering and demonstrating a different way forward to Russians, and it also turns Ukrainians into 'other'.
s1artibartfast 3y ago
That sounds a lot like once a wolf always, a wolf, which is a circular self-fulfilling prophecy.

Putin was actively attempting to repair relations with western democracies during the early 2000s. 9/11 happened and helped spur two American-led, endless wars from which no clear goal could be defined. “The West” focused its geopolitical efforts and energy into these conflicts instead of dancing with the Russian President. Meanwhile, Putin was intent on making his mark in history and likely became disillusioned to playing nicely with “The West.” He likely did not feel comfortable with the lukewarm attitude towards Russia and the US’s preoccupations with war combined with the EU’s indifference towards Russia allowed Putin to arm unsupervised. We saw him beginning to seek to close off all ingress points into Russia, but we didn’t understand its significance at the time. The huge swath of land that encompasses modern day Russia has been invaded a multitude of times through history and via these geographic “gateways” that exist on land that were mostly under soviet control during the Cold War, but now cannot be adequately controlled by Russia without conquest. Putin put Russia into a state of readiness for future invasions, banking on the fact that quick takeovers would receive limited backlash from western powers and the international community. The invasion of Georgia closed off one of these gateways, a successful invasion of Ukraine would have closed three including the one in Crimea that Russia “annexed” (read: stole) in 2014. I do not blame the Russian people for Putin’s actions - which he needs to be held responsible for - and only wish the Russian people could finally enjoy democratic elections and they can finally put the days of needing a “strong man” in charge behind them. I think at that point will be able to welcome Russia back into the global community.

s1artibartfast 3y ago
I think that's all true, but you also have to take into account NATO expansion. I don't fault NATO or Russia for their fear of each other, as each of them continually maneuvered for better military advantage against each other. I think it's hard to imagine the West welcoming Russia into the global community as long has it presents a credible military threat, no matter what the leadership is. Similarly, I can't imagine Russia ever agreeing to a unilateral demilitarization under any leadership.
- beebmam 3y ago
  Russia is welcome into the West as long as it gives up imperial ambitions in Eastern Europe. Putin and other Russian elites are not interested in giving those ambitions up. Certain factions of Russia do want to give up imperial ambitions and join the EU. They'd be welcome to, if they can renounce imperialism. Maybe one day.
  - s1artibartfast 3y ago
    The problem is that there is no way to prove a negative. Even if a hypothetical Russia had no imperial ambitions, it can't prove it.
    - ericfrazier 3y ago
      Not attacking its neighbors would be a goods start.
      - s1artibartfast 3y ago
        And then?
- _kbh_ 3y ago
  > I think that's all true, but you also have to take into account NATO expansion. The most ironic part of this is that Russias invasion of Ukraine is directly responsible for recent NATO expansion.
  - s1artibartfast 3y ago
    agreed, Although I think they were in a dammed if you do, dammed if you dont situation. Especially once NATO declared that it would work towards and eventually accept Ukraine as member, which immediately preceded the invasion of Crimea.
    - _kbh_ 3y ago
jemmyw 3y ago
Reading too much Peter Zeihan? I don't put any creedence to his gateways hypothesis. It smacks of rationalisation. There are simpler explanations that don't have to ignore Russia being a nuclear state that doesn't worry about a mass land invasion from Europe. For example, Ukraine turning to Europe is just disastrous for Putin's authority. So the war stops Ukraine from prospering and demonstrating a different way forward to Russians, and it also turns Ukrainians into 'other'.

s1artibartfast 3y ago

That sounds a lot like once a wolf always, a wolf, which is a circular self-fulfilling prophecy.