3 ms·

I’m not sure what will change in a few more days but I do already discount everything. I’m not sure what your second comment means exactly, can you elaborate?

JumpCrisscross 3y ago
> not sure what will change in a few more days One, the people who think before speaking will start talking. Two, intelligence will start being released.
- bombcar 3y ago
  Anyone who claims to see through the fog of war without evidence and even sometimes with should be suspect; they have already determined what they want to see and found it. The hardest part is that we are all that way, and we naturally love to see things that confirm our knowledge, biases, suspicions, etc; and hate to be challenged.
  - deleted 3y ago
    [deleted]
- itsoktocry 3y ago
  >One, the people who think before speaking will start talking. Two, intelligence will start being released. I mean, I agree with you. But from 10,000ft, it's going to be mostly the same voices, going one way or the other. Conflicting views will remain prominent. The information war is crazy.
  - mattmaroon 3y ago
    Right. I mean obviously both Israel and Hamas likely know if they accidentally blew up a hospital parking lot. One of them is lying and will still be doing so in a week. U.S. (and other third party nations) intelligence services may or may not have legitimate knowledge and may or may not be truthful about it and that’s unlikely to change in a week. What usually happens in these situations is a week later the stories are the same and we still don’t really know what happened.
    - PawgerZ 3y ago
      > Right. I mean obviously both Israel and Hamas likely know if they accidentally blew up a hospital parking lot. One of them is lying and will still be doing so in a week. But the prevailing view is that the Palestinian Islamic Jihad accidentally blew up a hospital -- not Hamas, not the IDF.
      - mattmaroon 3y ago
        https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/24/world/middleeast/gaza-hospital-israel-hamas-video.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/24/world/middleeast/gaza-hos... Week later, still don’t know anything.
- mattmaroon 3y ago
  I’m not sure I’ll trust the intelligence any more in a week than I do now. I think that if Israel accidentally blew up the hospital, they and the US will still say otherwise. I don’t imagine any other country in that region telling me the opposite would be very persuasive. I suppose if there’s an admission against interest I’d be more inclined to believe it, such as if Jordan says Hamas did it. But I don’t imagine they’d do that. If the runup to our invasion of Iraq taught me anything, it’s that intelligence can be incorrect or misrepresented to the public for quite some time.

JumpCrisscross 3y ago

> not sure what will change in a few more days One, the people who think before speaking will start talking. Two, intelligence will start being released.

bombcar 3y ago
Anyone who claims to see through the fog of war without evidence and even sometimes with should be suspect; they have already determined what they want to see and found it. The hardest part is that we are all that way, and we naturally love to see things that confirm our knowledge, biases, suspicions, etc; and hate to be challenged.
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
itsoktocry 3y ago
>One, the people who think before speaking will start talking. Two, intelligence will start being released. I mean, I agree with you. But from 10,000ft, it's going to be mostly the same voices, going one way or the other. Conflicting views will remain prominent. The information war is crazy.
- mattmaroon 3y ago
  Right. I mean obviously both Israel and Hamas likely know if they accidentally blew up a hospital parking lot. One of them is lying and will still be doing so in a week. U.S. (and other third party nations) intelligence services may or may not have legitimate knowledge and may or may not be truthful about it and that’s unlikely to change in a week. What usually happens in these situations is a week later the stories are the same and we still don’t really know what happened.
  - PawgerZ 3y ago
    > Right. I mean obviously both Israel and Hamas likely know if they accidentally blew up a hospital parking lot. One of them is lying and will still be doing so in a week. But the prevailing view is that the Palestinian Islamic Jihad accidentally blew up a hospital -- not Hamas, not the IDF.
    - mattmaroon 3y ago
      https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/24/world/middleeast/gaza-hospital-israel-hamas-video.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/24/world/middleeast/gaza-hos... Week later, still don’t know anything.
mattmaroon 3y ago
I’m not sure I’ll trust the intelligence any more in a week than I do now. I think that if Israel accidentally blew up the hospital, they and the US will still say otherwise. I don’t imagine any other country in that region telling me the opposite would be very persuasive. I suppose if there’s an admission against interest I’d be more inclined to believe it, such as if Jordan says Hamas did it. But I don’t imagine they’d do that. If the runup to our invasion of Iraq taught me anything, it’s that intelligence can be incorrect or misrepresented to the public for quite some time.