I book direct when I can. My preferred method is to play the 24 hour check-in gamble, and then size up the crowd at the gate. If it looks like a small crowd,

I book direct when I can. My preferred method is to play the 24 hour check-in gamble, and then size up the crowd at the gate. If it looks like a small crowd, pleasant group of people, and a decent boarding position, I roll with what I got. If the crowd is huge, cranky, with too much luggage, and I have a bad boarding group, I go to the counter and buy an A-list upgrade.