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You need to view things in perspective. I cant give a full finacial analysis in on comment but a few things to note Tesla has exeptionally low debt, ist almost

by nickik 3y ago

You need to view things in perspective. I cant give a full finacial analysis in on comment but a few things to note Tesla has exeptionally low debt, ist almost hilarously low compaired to other car makers. Tesla cash isnt even remotly an important problem right now. Subsidies means lots of things in different context. Regulatory credits, arguable not subsidies, are a small part of the overall buissness bur this quarter is a fair bit of the profit as they went up and profit was down. Removing tax credit would actually help Tesla as they are in a far far better postion to relative to the rest. Other need the subdidies and credits desperatly to not lose even more money. Tesla is having profit and cash flow while doing upgrades accross their factories, massive investment in service, charging, new factories, data centers, robots, lithium refineries and many other things. Tesle has its own battery factories with its own battery designs, something only BYD has. A huge advantage that people still don't appriciate. While their are short term issues in the EV market the long term trend is still clear. And Tesla continues to be in a good position to ride that wave up. US is only 8% penetration of EV. Plus for all Tesla problems, looking at the wider market is advised. Ford has opened their EV finacials, and they are horrible. GM just moved back many EV product and reduced their volume forcadt further (after horribly missing their forcast from a few years ago). Some people point out Tesla inhouse battery production isnt growing as fast as claimed, meanwhile GM factory with a reputable battery partner is even worse. Honda/Toyoto have barly realized EVs even exist. Other western car makers are massivly struggling in China. VW the company everybody thought would roll over Tesla has massice issues there and also has issues in Europe. Not running plants at capabity and having to fire people, plus delaying prodicts and other factories. The comming 5 years will be even harder on the automotive industry them the last 5. At some point profitable ICE sales wont be able to compensate for selling EV at non existant markets. The reality is, right now in the US outside of Tesla prett much nobody is operating profitably and they all desperatly wont more scale but because so many companies try the same plan with the same prodycts and issues. Dealers continue to be a huge problem. I also would mention Tesla energy buissness is growing really well and is profitiable. And that looks good grow quicky as the demand for grid stabalisation and home energy story is hardly gone slow down. So Tesla isnt a finacial juggernaut but they are in a hell of a good position in two large and growing markets. With lots of competitors not executing very well. Their position isnt very riscy and the have plenty of cash. The biggest risk for Tesla is China really makeing a big move into Europe and later the US. But again Tesla is more likely to compete in that market them legacy OEM who are struggling against Tesla already. It takes years for that to really happen and poleticians are already moving against it. It will take more years for China companies to build up local factories, because just like Tesla they will have to do that.

itsoktocry 3y ago
>Tesla has exeptionally low debt, ist almost hilarously low compaired to other car makers. Admittedly their financials are better than many automakers, but their age and business model are different. But so what? Debt is one way you finance your company. Tesla continuously dilutes its shareholders instead. Is that better? >Removing tax credit would actually help Tesla as they are in a far far better postion to relative to the rest. Other need the subdidies and credits desperatly to not lose even more money. Hilarious. Remove the subsidy, and how profitable are they? Why aren't they lobbying for it? Other companies would simply stop producing these unprofitable cars. >With lots of competitors not executing very well. Their position isnt very riscy and the have plenty of cash. I agree with the first part, but keep in mind their market cap. Ask far as cash, I pose the same to you: how much of that "cash" is RMB that can't be repatriated? How much is BTC or some other shitcoin? How much are "cash equivalents" that aren't properly marked? >The biggest risk for Tesla is China really makeing a big move into Europe and later the US. No, the biggest risk for Tesla is that China says "you're out", which would bury the company. What percentage of revenue/profit come from there? Other than that you list a bunch of intangible things that may or may not have a material impact on financials. As if no one else is investing in factories, robots, and data centers.
- nickik 3y ago
  > But so what? Debt is one way you finance your company. If you don't understand what the issue with lots of debt is I don't know how to help you. > Tesla continuously dilutes its shareholders instead. Is that better? As an investor I can tell you that most of the time when Tesla did raise money the stock price went up, because they had credible investment targets and people wanted Tesla to raise money. Also, Tesla hasn't raised money in many years. The last time they raised was in 2020 and they didn't really need to raise, they just added some cash to be safe. > Hilarious. Remove the subsidy, and how profitable are they? Why aren't they lobbying for it? Other companies would simply stop producing these unprofitable cars. Musk has actually talked about how subsidies aren't the solution in the long term and he wasn't a huge supporter. My comparison was against the other electric car makers, all electric car makers profit from subsidies against ICE makres. What Tesla mostly lobbied for was when the tax credit only allowed for 250k and Tesla and GM had used up its credit while foreign companies came in and used their credits years after when battery cost had fallen. That was nonsensical policy that needed to be changed. > Other companies would simply stop producing these unprofitable cars. No they wouldn't. You don't seem to be informed about the car market. Car companies simply can't opt out of EV profitable or not. Because regulation is pushing them in Europe and China. They know that if they don't have EVs they won't survive in the long run. > how much of that "cash" is RMB that can't be repatriated? I don't have that information but I don't think it matters. Having cash in RMB is very useful as they are huge in the market in China and need cash there as well. And its not that its impossible to exchange either. > How much is BTC or some other shitcoin? Why don't you look stuff like that up. Its basically nothing. > How much are "cash equivalents" that aren't properly marked? They are using the same definition of 'cash equivalents' as any other cNo, the biggest risk for Tesla is that China says "you're out", which would bury the company. What percentage of revenue/profit come from there?ompany. So you can ask the same question for every company. Have you looked at their financial statements and have any actual information on these being especially bad. Simply asking leading questions aren't arguments. > No, the biggest risk for Tesla is that China says "you're out", which would bury the company. What percentage of revenue/profit come from there? Yes but in the real world this will simply not happen. Because if China kicked out Western car makers then they would respond in kind and not allow exports from China. And China whole policy for 20+ years has worked towards them being able to export cars. Tesla is amazing for China because Tesla actually achieved what they wanted, exporting China made cars all over the world. Tesla has great relation with their local government as well. So sure if China just randomly said 'fuck you' then that would be bad, but that is true for basically every large company on the plant. So its not really something to worry about overly much. Unless you have an actual clear cut exploitation why Tesla is in a high risk situation with regards to China, it just doesn't really work as an argument. > Other than that you list a bunch of intangible things that may or may not have a material impact on financials. As if no one else is investing in factories, robots, and data centers. Well, lets actually think about it. Most car makers use dealers, so they are not investing in service centers and thus will profit less from cars coming of warranty. Most car makers don't make their own batteries, thus they don't have nearly as much investment in battery research and battery factories. Other car makers don't have their own major charging network. Most other car makers don't work on robots. And most other car makers haAnd as for Factories, Tesla is building new factories from the ground up to EXPAND capacity, while most other car makers convert existing factories while having SHRINKING capacity. ve stopped trying working on self driving tech themselves and instead buy a driving assist solution from suppliers. Or please tell me where GM own super charging network is located? Or Toyotas? Or Kias? And as for Factories, Tesla is building new factories from the ground up to EXPAND capacity, while most other car makers convert existing factories while having SHRINKING capacity. So yes, investing lots of money has an effect on financials, denying that is just baffling. And yes, Tesla with their vertical integration strategy has to invest more but they will also get more of the long term benefit. Service for example used to be a huge money loser for Tesla, but over time it has turned profitable and over the next 10+ years it will turn incredibly profitable. Current car companies make huge money from selling parts because they have millions and millions of cars out of warranty. Tesla because they are growing has most cars in warranty, over time, as millions of Tesla's are off warrant having their service centers vertically integrated will be huge for Tesla.

by nickik 3y ago

itsoktocry 3y ago

>Tesla has exeptionally low debt, ist almost hilarously low compaired to other car makers. Admittedly their financials are better than many automakers, but their age and business model are different. But so what? Debt is one way you finance your company. Tesla continuously dilutes its shareholders instead. Is that better? >Removing tax credit would actually help Tesla as they are in a far far better postion to relative to the rest. Other need the subdidies and credits desperatly to not lose even more money. Hilarious. Remove the subsidy, and how profitable are they? Why aren't they lobbying for it? Other companies would simply stop producing these unprofitable cars. >With lots of competitors not executing very well. Their position isnt very riscy and the have plenty of cash. I agree with the first part, but keep in mind their market cap. Ask far as cash, I pose the same to you: how much of that "cash" is RMB that can't be repatriated? How much is BTC or some other shitcoin? How much are "cash equivalents" that aren't properly marked? >The biggest risk for Tesla is China really makeing a big move into Europe and later the US. No, the biggest risk for Tesla is that China says "you're out", which would bury the company. What percentage of revenue/profit come from there? Other than that you list a bunch of intangible things that may or may not have a material impact on financials. As if no one else is investing in factories, robots, and data centers.

nickik 3y ago
> But so what? Debt is one way you finance your company. If you don't understand what the issue with lots of debt is I don't know how to help you. > Tesla continuously dilutes its shareholders instead. Is that better? As an investor I can tell you that most of the time when Tesla did raise money the stock price went up, because they had credible investment targets and people wanted Tesla to raise money. Also, Tesla hasn't raised money in many years. The last time they raised was in 2020 and they didn't really need to raise, they just added some cash to be safe. > Hilarious. Remove the subsidy, and how profitable are they? Why aren't they lobbying for it? Other companies would simply stop producing these unprofitable cars. Musk has actually talked about how subsidies aren't the solution in the long term and he wasn't a huge supporter. My comparison was against the other electric car makers, all electric car makers profit from subsidies against ICE makres. What Tesla mostly lobbied for was when the tax credit only allowed for 250k and Tesla and GM had used up its credit while foreign companies came in and used their credits years after when battery cost had fallen. That was nonsensical policy that needed to be changed. > Other companies would simply stop producing these unprofitable cars. No they wouldn't. You don't seem to be informed about the car market. Car companies simply can't opt out of EV profitable or not. Because regulation is pushing them in Europe and China. They know that if they don't have EVs they won't survive in the long run. > how much of that "cash" is RMB that can't be repatriated? I don't have that information but I don't think it matters. Having cash in RMB is very useful as they are huge in the market in China and need cash there as well. And its not that its impossible to exchange either. > How much is BTC or some other shitcoin? Why don't you look stuff like that up. Its basically nothing. > How much are "cash equivalents" that aren't properly marked? They are using the same definition of 'cash equivalents' as any other cNo, the biggest risk for Tesla is that China says "you're out", which would bury the company. What percentage of revenue/profit come from there?ompany. So you can ask the same question for every company. Have you looked at their financial statements and have any actual information on these being especially bad. Simply asking leading questions aren't arguments. > No, the biggest risk for Tesla is that China says "you're out", which would bury the company. What percentage of revenue/profit come from there? Yes but in the real world this will simply not happen. Because if China kicked out Western car makers then they would respond in kind and not allow exports from China. And China whole policy for 20+ years has worked towards them being able to export cars. Tesla is amazing for China because Tesla actually achieved what they wanted, exporting China made cars all over the world. Tesla has great relation with their local government as well. So sure if China just randomly said 'fuck you' then that would be bad, but that is true for basically every large company on the plant. So its not really something to worry about overly much. Unless you have an actual clear cut exploitation why Tesla is in a high risk situation with regards to China, it just doesn't really work as an argument. > Other than that you list a bunch of intangible things that may or may not have a material impact on financials. As if no one else is investing in factories, robots, and data centers. Well, lets actually think about it. Most car makers use dealers, so they are not investing in service centers and thus will profit less from cars coming of warranty. Most car makers don't make their own batteries, thus they don't have nearly as much investment in battery research and battery factories. Other car makers don't have their own major charging network. Most other car makers don't work on robots. And most other car makers haAnd as for Factories, Tesla is building new factories from the ground up to EXPAND capacity, while most other car makers convert existing factories while having SHRINKING capacity. ve stopped trying working on self driving tech themselves and instead buy a driving assist solution from suppliers. Or please tell me where GM own super charging network is located? Or Toyotas? Or Kias? And as for Factories, Tesla is building new factories from the ground up to EXPAND capacity, while most other car makers convert existing factories while having SHRINKING capacity. So yes, investing lots of money has an effect on financials, denying that is just baffling. And yes, Tesla with their vertical integration strategy has to invest more but they will also get more of the long term benefit. Service for example used to be a huge money loser for Tesla, but over time it has turned profitable and over the next 10+ years it will turn incredibly profitable. Current car companies make huge money from selling parts because they have millions and millions of cars out of warranty. Tesla because they are growing has most cars in warranty, over time, as millions of Tesla's are off warrant having their service centers vertically integrated will be huge for Tesla.