6 ms·

Oh good the stock valuation corrected from "delusional" to "still delusional"

toomuchtodo 3y ago
It’s just a number in a database. Don’t get too wrapped up about it. If you’re Elon or an investor, it might matter. If you’re a consumer, all that matters is the vehicle price and fast DC story in your jurisdiction. If you’re a climate activist, you just care they keep growing volume and making legacy auto suffer enough to have to electrify too. It’s a meaningless number for the most part as long as the business is cashflow positive and still has ~$25B in cash equivalents on hand. For comparison, half of public companies aren’t profitable. https://medium.com/short-business-articles-by-svyatoslav-biryulin/loss-making-as-a-business-model-29e2a2003485 https://medium.com/short-business-articles-by-svyatoslav-bir...
- itsoktocry 3y ago
  >If you’re a climate activist, you just care they keep growing volume Why is Elon railing against work from home then, if he cares so much about the climate? >It’s a meaningless number for the most part as long as the business is cashflow positive and still has ~$25B "It's a meaningless number, unlike this other meaningless number I prefer and may not understand."
  - toomuchtodo 3y ago
    I don't care about Elon, he is a monster that I can acknowledge has delivered material value. Tesla survived because he is an obsessive, power hungry dude seeking validation (also luck, lots of luck). His ownership interest in Tesla is down to 13%. It appears him and I both agree billionaire shouldn't exist, we just differ on the methodology to arrive there (taxes vs value destruction a la Twitter). I care about Tesla (as someone deeply concerned about climate change), that is the valuable machine spinning up. 2 million EV units a year at current run rate [1], tens of thousands of fast DC charger stalls [2], 40GWh/yr in utility scale battery storage manufacturing capacity [3]. I understand this might be a difficult concept to grasp for some mental models (not a sleight, it seems some don't understand how you can dislike the person but fully support the enterprise they are entwined with). We are arguing different OSI layers (wealth and securities, shared delusions, vs physical manufacturing and supply chains). The most ideal outcome is Tesla remaining profitable enough to continue rapidly expanding EV and battery storage deployments (dragging legacy auto and electrical generation towards net zero) while not so profitable it materially improves Elon's wealth. Unfortunately, I am just a moderately well off internet pleb, not someone who can fire Elon, entice JB Straubel (phenomenal engineer, excellent human, proven leader) to return as CEO, and merge up Redwood Materials into the Tesla org to fully vertically integrate and spin up faster. C'est la vie. [1] https://www.statista.com/chart/30758/most-popular-plug-in-electric-car-brands/ https://www.statista.com/chart/30758/most-popular-plug-in-el... [2] https://supercharge.info/map https://supercharge.info/map [3] https://electrek.co/2023/04/19/tesla-reports-massive-increase-energy-storage-deployment-thanks-megafactory/ https://electrek.co/2023/04/19/tesla-reports-massive-increas...
    - itsoktocry 3y ago
      I'm more interested in your financial analysis. Cash flow is not profit. How much of that cash is in China, unable to be repatriated? How much increase is due to more debt? What are the "cash equivalents", and are they marked properly? How much is due to subsidies, which I'm fine with, but could disappear tomorrow? This company is not a financial juggernaut, there are still many risks.
      - toomuchtodo 3y ago
        There are always risks. Every US automaker has gone bankrupt at some point except Ford and Tesla. Success is not assured, and there is substantial peril ahead. Regardless, Tesla is not fighting for it's life like it was 5-10 years ago. They are on firm footing, through a combination of insatiable demand for energy storage products, robust EV subsides to get off of fossil fuels (which I refuse to debate the merits of, that is wasted time), and a brand that is popular. Tesla may still die, but we must get to the point where it is immaterial if they do, where there is no going back to combustion for mobility. The financials I reference are public in EDGAR, I currently do not have access to material non public information and would not share if I did.
        itsoktocry 3y ago
        >The financials I reference are public in EDGAR. Yes, I know, I follow their finances closely. "They have $25B in cash according to their balance sheet" is practically meaningless. I understand this might be a difficult concept to grasp for some mental models, but there are many historical analogs to look at why that's the case. They'll produce whatever numbers simple minded analysts will post on Twitter. Look at the discourse around their decrease in COGS. Many metrics are trending down. Of course, I'm not a "they're going bankrupt" person; I just believe they'll be a much smaller company than most imagine.
        toomuchtodo 3y ago
        I have nothing more to offer you. If you're a sophisticated capital market participant, place your bet. I have no current exposure to TSLA or any of their debt offerings. I do not care about the stock price. I care about a material movement in climate change outcome.
- drowsspa 3y ago
  Yet he was able to use these numbers in a database to buy Twitter
- vikramkr 3y ago
  The long term viability of the company you bought a car from absolutely matters when it's such an expensive purchase that is reliant on Tesla not only for service but also for charging. You don't know what thing you rely on might get cut when the bubble pops and they need to find cash - frothy markets hide weaknesses and make it easier for companies to pile up weaknesses without people paying attention (e.g. svb).

It’s just a number in a database. Don’t get too wrapped up about it. If you’re Elon or an investor, it might matter. If you’re a consumer, all that matters is the vehicle price and fast DC story in your jurisdiction. If you’re a climate activist, you just care they keep growing volume and making legacy auto suffer enough to have to electrify too. It’s a meaningless number for the most part as long as the business is cashflow positive and still has ~$25B in cash equivalents on hand. For comparison, half of public companies aren’t profitable. https://medium.com/short-business-articles-by-svyatoslav-biryulin/loss-making-as-a-business-model-29e2a2003485 https://medium.com/short-business-articles-by-svyatoslav-bir...

itsoktocry 3y ago
>If you’re a climate activist, you just care they keep growing volume Why is Elon railing against work from home then, if he cares so much about the climate? >It’s a meaningless number for the most part as long as the business is cashflow positive and still has ~$25B "It's a meaningless number, unlike this other meaningless number I prefer and may not understand."
- toomuchtodo 3y ago
  I don't care about Elon, he is a monster that I can acknowledge has delivered material value. Tesla survived because he is an obsessive, power hungry dude seeking validation (also luck, lots of luck). His ownership interest in Tesla is down to 13%. It appears him and I both agree billionaire shouldn't exist, we just differ on the methodology to arrive there (taxes vs value destruction a la Twitter). I care about Tesla (as someone deeply concerned about climate change), that is the valuable machine spinning up. 2 million EV units a year at current run rate [1], tens of thousands of fast DC charger stalls [2], 40GWh/yr in utility scale battery storage manufacturing capacity [3]. I understand this might be a difficult concept to grasp for some mental models (not a sleight, it seems some don't understand how you can dislike the person but fully support the enterprise they are entwined with). We are arguing different OSI layers (wealth and securities, shared delusions, vs physical manufacturing and supply chains). The most ideal outcome is Tesla remaining profitable enough to continue rapidly expanding EV and battery storage deployments (dragging legacy auto and electrical generation towards net zero) while not so profitable it materially improves Elon's wealth. Unfortunately, I am just a moderately well off internet pleb, not someone who can fire Elon, entice JB Straubel (phenomenal engineer, excellent human, proven leader) to return as CEO, and merge up Redwood Materials into the Tesla org to fully vertically integrate and spin up faster. C'est la vie. [1] https://www.statista.com/chart/30758/most-popular-plug-in-electric-car-brands/ https://www.statista.com/chart/30758/most-popular-plug-in-el... [2] https://supercharge.info/map https://supercharge.info/map [3] https://electrek.co/2023/04/19/tesla-reports-massive-increase-energy-storage-deployment-thanks-megafactory/ https://electrek.co/2023/04/19/tesla-reports-massive-increas...
  - itsoktocry 3y ago
    I'm more interested in your financial analysis. Cash flow is not profit. How much of that cash is in China, unable to be repatriated? How much increase is due to more debt? What are the "cash equivalents", and are they marked properly? How much is due to subsidies, which I'm fine with, but could disappear tomorrow? This company is not a financial juggernaut, there are still many risks.
    - toomuchtodo 3y ago
      There are always risks. Every US automaker has gone bankrupt at some point except Ford and Tesla. Success is not assured, and there is substantial peril ahead. Regardless, Tesla is not fighting for it's life like it was 5-10 years ago. They are on firm footing, through a combination of insatiable demand for energy storage products, robust EV subsides to get off of fossil fuels (which I refuse to debate the merits of, that is wasted time), and a brand that is popular. Tesla may still die, but we must get to the point where it is immaterial if they do, where there is no going back to combustion for mobility. The financials I reference are public in EDGAR, I currently do not have access to material non public information and would not share if I did.
      - itsoktocry 3y ago
        >The financials I reference are public in EDGAR. Yes, I know, I follow their finances closely. "They have $25B in cash according to their balance sheet" is practically meaningless. I understand this might be a difficult concept to grasp for some mental models, but there are many historical analogs to look at why that's the case. They'll produce whatever numbers simple minded analysts will post on Twitter. Look at the discourse around their decrease in COGS. Many metrics are trending down. Of course, I'm not a "they're going bankrupt" person; I just believe they'll be a much smaller company than most imagine.
        toomuchtodo 3y ago
        I have nothing more to offer you. If you're a sophisticated capital market participant, place your bet. I have no current exposure to TSLA or any of their debt offerings. I do not care about the stock price. I care about a material movement in climate change outcome.
drowsspa 3y ago
Yet he was able to use these numbers in a database to buy Twitter
vikramkr 3y ago
The long term viability of the company you bought a car from absolutely matters when it's such an expensive purchase that is reliant on Tesla not only for service but also for charging. You don't know what thing you rely on might get cut when the bubble pops and they need to find cash - frothy markets hide weaknesses and make it easier for companies to pile up weaknesses without people paying attention (e.g. svb).