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We really need to start harden our grid and in all ways prepare for something like this. It will happen again and I suspect we will say: “no one could have pred

We really need to start harden our grid and in all ways prepare for something like this. It will happen again and I suspect we will say: “no one could have predicted it” once it does.

PumpkinSpice 3y ago
This is being done across the US. For example: https://www.wapa.gov/newsroom/NewsFeatures/2020/Pages/New-capability-shields-grid-from-solar-storms.aspx https://www.wapa.gov/newsroom/NewsFeatures/2020/Pages/New-ca...
hyperthesis 3y ago
but consider the standard used for water grid 'hardening': 1-in-100-year flood
- brutusborn 3y ago
  With better tooling this kind of status quo will change. Choosing a single worst case for design is a product of manual design processes. With modern computer technology we can run multiple cases easily, so we can now use probabilistic engineering techniques. In the future it won’t be “this bridge is good for 1 in 100 year storm” but “this bridge has a 99.99% chance of surviving every storm during its design life.” That will include the very rare events beyond the 100 year horizon.
- ssnistfajen 3y ago
  Mitigation ≠ total prevention It's really not that hard to see this isn't a binary choice.
quickthrower2 3y ago
Or move towards no grid? Solar, batteries, local power storage facilities (like pumps) and backup generators perhaps using natural gas.
- chrisco255 3y ago
  Any electrical circuits unshielded have potential to overload in a solar storm like the Carrington event. Induction from magnetism creates a current even in disconnected circuitry and wires. See: https://www.wired.com/2011/09/0902magnetic-storm-disrupts-telegraphy-carrington-event/ https://www.wired.com/2011/09/0902magnetic-storm-disrupts-te... Telegraph operators were able to communicate even though disconnected during the event.
  - 8bitsrule 3y ago
    It's essential to note that,compared to Carrington, >the Miyake Events (including the newly discovered 14,300-yr-old storm) would have been a staggering entire order-of-magnitude greater in size and that now 9 of them have been found. The following links the 2017 Fusa Miyaki-led PNAS paper (complete) concerning 'Large 14C excursion in 5480 BC..." https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.1613144114 https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.1613144114
_3u10 3y ago
Wasn't society supposed to collapse from Y2K too? The people doing this research need funding, and no one is going to give them funding unless, it's to make sure that this won't wipe out society. If the grid collapses in any meaningful way because of a solar storm, we're all f'ed, try rebuilding the grid without a grid. Something tells me this won't happen. I'm guessing what actually happens is a few breakers trip, the grid is out for a few days and we're back up and running a few days later.
- bradgessler 3y ago
  Y2K supports the point that something should be done. The reason nothing terrible happened is because lots investment was made in remediating the issue.
  - _3u10 3y ago
    I doubt anything in the electrical grid or that mattered actually cared about the two digit year being 00. Best case scenario some bills were going to be messed up / reissued. SCADA controlled water pumps never cared what the date was, maybe it ran on the cycle for the wrong day and the backup kicked in, big whoop.
    - bradgessler 3y ago
      Right, because you were there evaluating the risks? I don’t know either way, but you seem to be speculating.
- Grimburger 3y ago
  This comment really underestimates how much was actually done for Y2K. It was a huge global effort.
steve1977 3y ago
Only we won’t be able to discuss it on the Internet then ;)

We really need to start harden our grid and in all ways prepare for something like this. It will happen again and I suspect we will say: “no one could have predicted it” once it does.

PumpkinSpice 3y ago

This is being done across the US. For example: https://www.wapa.gov/newsroom/NewsFeatures/2020/Pages/New-capability-shields-grid-from-solar-storms.aspx https://www.wapa.gov/newsroom/NewsFeatures/2020/Pages/New-ca...

hyperthesis 3y ago

but consider the standard used for water grid 'hardening': 1-in-100-year flood

brutusborn 3y ago
With better tooling this kind of status quo will change. Choosing a single worst case for design is a product of manual design processes. With modern computer technology we can run multiple cases easily, so we can now use probabilistic engineering techniques. In the future it won’t be “this bridge is good for 1 in 100 year storm” but “this bridge has a 99.99% chance of surviving every storm during its design life.” That will include the very rare events beyond the 100 year horizon.
ssnistfajen 3y ago
Mitigation ≠ total prevention It's really not that hard to see this isn't a binary choice.

quickthrower2 3y ago

Or move towards no grid? Solar, batteries, local power storage facilities (like pumps) and backup generators perhaps using natural gas.

chrisco255 3y ago
Any electrical circuits unshielded have potential to overload in a solar storm like the Carrington event. Induction from magnetism creates a current even in disconnected circuitry and wires. See: https://www.wired.com/2011/09/0902magnetic-storm-disrupts-telegraphy-carrington-event/ https://www.wired.com/2011/09/0902magnetic-storm-disrupts-te... Telegraph operators were able to communicate even though disconnected during the event.
- 8bitsrule 3y ago
  It's essential to note that,compared to Carrington, >the Miyake Events (including the newly discovered 14,300-yr-old storm) would have been a staggering entire order-of-magnitude greater in size and that now 9 of them have been found. The following links the 2017 Fusa Miyaki-led PNAS paper (complete) concerning 'Large 14C excursion in 5480 BC..." https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.1613144114 https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.1613144114

_3u10 3y ago

Wasn't society supposed to collapse from Y2K too? The people doing this research need funding, and no one is going to give them funding unless, it's to make sure that this won't wipe out society. If the grid collapses in any meaningful way because of a solar storm, we're all f'ed, try rebuilding the grid without a grid. Something tells me this won't happen. I'm guessing what actually happens is a few breakers trip, the grid is out for a few days and we're back up and running a few days later.

bradgessler 3y ago
Y2K supports the point that something should be done. The reason nothing terrible happened is because lots investment was made in remediating the issue.
- _3u10 3y ago
  I doubt anything in the electrical grid or that mattered actually cared about the two digit year being 00. Best case scenario some bills were going to be messed up / reissued. SCADA controlled water pumps never cared what the date was, maybe it ran on the cycle for the wrong day and the backup kicked in, big whoop.
  - bradgessler 3y ago
    Right, because you were there evaluating the risks? I don’t know either way, but you seem to be speculating.
Grimburger 3y ago
This comment really underestimates how much was actually done for Y2K. It was a huge global effort.

steve1977 3y ago

Only we won’t be able to discuss it on the Internet then ;)