5 ms·

November is in half a month, and they haven't even announced the price yet! Let alone features of the final production model (which differs significantly from w

November is in half a month, and they haven't even announced the price yet! Let alone features of the final production model (which differs significantly from what was shown on stage, but even that was vague in a number of areas). While I'd normally assume this is just review samples, 125K is far too many for that.

me_me_me 3y ago
They didn't say which November, now did they?
moralestapia 3y ago
(I'm not a fanboy) This just shows the massive value of Tesla as a brand. The price doesn't even matter, the product just sells.
- _ea1k 3y ago
  To be fair, most of the orders were with the prices from the announcement. It is just that noone expects those to be the actual final price after these past few years. Which is crazy, considering that 3 and Y are pretty close to their prices from back then.
- danpalmer 3y ago
  They have a strong brand, but the fact that they are dropping prices and needing to do marketing where they haven't before suggests that perhaps the shine is wearing off, maybe they've saturated the market of people interested in the brand (and wealthy enough to afford the cars). The truck will be a new market, particularly in the US where trucks are so prevalent. This may be where their growth comes from – trucks rather than the Tesla brand. However they may be limiting themselves with such an... eccentric? approach and design.
  - toomuchtodo 3y ago
    I traded a Toyota full size pickup truck in for my first Tesla, a Model S, because Tesla needed to move units to survive. I'm looking forward to closing the loop, trading that Model S (with almost 110k miles on it after driving cross country in six years) in for my Cybertruck. It's ugly, I love it, I don't care what it costs. The most popular vehicle in the US? The F150 [1]. You must dive into this market segment head on, as this vehicle population is responsible for substantial US mobility emissions [2]. Sell to younger people who want trucks, but want an electric truck. Same reason Harley Davidson spun their Livewire bike out to its own brand [3]: old people riding Harley's didn't want it, and that persona is dying out. So you have to create a new brand to cater to the persona you're targeting [4] [5]. [1] https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/02/ford-pickup-remains-americas-top-selling-truck-for-45th-year.html https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/02/ford-pickup-remains-americas... [2] https://record.umich.edu/articles/study-compares-greenhouse-gas-reductions-for-light-duty-vehicles/ https://record.umich.edu/articles/study-compares-greenhouse-... [3] https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/27/harley-davidson-spins-off-livewire-in-1point8-billion-spac-merger.html https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/27/harley-davidson-spins-off-li... [4] https://medium.com/startup-grind/people-dont-buy-products-they-buy-better-versions-of-themselves-2ce85fdb5ff1 https://medium.com/startup-grind/people-dont-buy-products-th... [5] https://www.useronboard.com/features-vs-benefits/ https://www.useronboard.com/features-vs-benefits/
    - serf 3y ago
      >So you have to create a new brand to cater to the persona you're targeting [4] [5]. Toyota tried to do that with Scion, it turned out to be a bad business move. Toyota had a brand-relationship with the idea of quality and value, whereas most people related Scion to the Korean groups Kia and Hyundai, which at the time only had very low-quality offerings in the United States. People didn't realize they were just rebranded Toyota. The resale suffered greatly compared to the mother company and after the gimmick of pseudo-Kei cars floundered in the west entirely they decided to just re-merge all of the vehicles back under the Toyota marque. My point being : certain sacrifices are made when a "hep to younger generations' rebrand occurs. For Toyota it was their brand awareness w.r.t. quality and value, and Scion couldn't hold its' own weight with just gimmicky offerings.
  - ryandvm 3y ago
    > The truck will be a new market, particularly in the US where trucks are so prevalent. I have my doubts about how successful electric trucks are going to be in the short term. The US is in the grips of an intense culture war and eco-anything is part of it. Hell, there are truck owners here that deliberately make their trucks less environmentally friendly just to "own the libs". Truck enthusiasts despise electric vehicles and environmentalists recognize that no amount of marketing will make an 8,000 pound truck "green".
    - hotpotamus 3y ago
      You don't need to be an enthusiast to buy a truck; it's a nice-to-have even if you just do the occasional home improvement project (yeah you could rent one as needed, but it's easier just to use your own a lot of the time). I really like Ford's Maverick, and if someone made an electric like that for a reasonable price, I'd pick one up. The cybertruck aesthetic is way too "look at me" for me to actually want one, but I'll enjoy seeing them driving around. I have a colleague who seems somewhat serious about getting one, and I'll be happy to ride in it at least.
      - rootusrootus 3y ago
        I agree on the idea of an electric Maverick. One of the problems I have with the CT is size. Not only is it an opionated design with lots of usability compromises, but it's enormous. It's more or less the size of my F250, which I never drive unless I'm pulling my trailer. Because it's huge!
      - deleted 3y ago
        [deleted]
      - danpalmer 3y ago
        > You don't need to be an enthusiast to buy a truck; it's a nice-to-have even if you just do the occasional home improvement project (yeah you could rent one as needed, but it's easier just to use your own a lot of the time). The rest of the world would disagree on this. Many countries have the same necessities as the US, and yet trucks are an almost uniquely American concept (same may be true of Canada, I'm not familiar enough). To put it another way, I think the American baseline for "enthusiast" is far higher than elsewhere. I think it's a combination of: living far apart, multi-car households, high availability of car financing and the deep cultural desire for self-sufficiency. Most countries differ on one or more of these, and there may be other factors here.
  - belltaco 3y ago
    They increased prices when production was low and then covid hit, and later supply chain cost inflation. The biggest driver behind price decreases this year has to be the super high interest rates on car loans, making financing expensive for consumers. Given that, 17.8% margins isn't too bad.
  - _ea1k 3y ago
    > suggests that perhaps the shine is wearing off, maybe they've saturated the market of people interested in the brand I think it is that they've saturated the market. Y is literally on the brink of being the highest selling vehicle in the world and has a good chance of ending the year as the highest selling car in the US. They are squeezing ~1.7M units out of two models. It isn't hard to see why they've had to be aggressive on pricing to hit such crazy volume targets. For comparison, BMW does ~2.5M (including Mini) with well over 12 models. CT is going to be an interesting case. On the one hand, I think it is a fad product. I can't see a design like that holding a sustainable and large place in the market. OTOH, it is one of the few products that can avoid the "invisible car" effect. I routinely run into people who "never see electric cars". The CT is impossible to miss. Within 12 months of it being on the market, people will think it dominates the market for electric trucks, even if that isn't true.
- mensetmanusman 3y ago
  If Tesla didn’t exist, the largest EV brand would be in China. If SpaceX didn’t exist, China would be dominating space flights as well.
  - moralestapia 3y ago
    Unfortunately, Tesla exists.
  - margalabargala 3y ago
    That tracks. China's been consistently second-place to the US for a long time now, in a lot of different areas.
  - bottlepalm 3y ago
    The only way to get to the ISS would be through Russia, and given the Ukraine war the ISS may have been decommissioned by now without SpaceX.
_ea1k 3y ago
> While I'd normally assume this is just review samples, 125K is far too many for that. The 125k is the capacity of the line. The industry always exaggerates these figures and Tesla is no different. For example, I've heard estimates that NUMMI had a capacity of >650k units. Under Toyota/GM it never did more than ~450k. Initial deliveries will be very slow. Though by January, they will likely be producing them much more quickly than Ford was producing Lightnings in Q3. :rofl
- bombcar 3y ago
  Line capacity is always based on perfect attendance, perfect supply, and the build vehicles never changing. So they could hit 125k if every single one was identical and nothing went wrong. Maybe.
starbase 3y ago
November 30th is a bit more than six weeks away. 125k is their annual production capacity, at present.
bonestamp2 3y ago
The launch event is Nov 30th. So, they've got 6 weeks to show some numbers, final features, etc.

me_me_me 3y ago

They didn't say which November, now did they?

moralestapia 3y ago

(I'm not a fanboy) This just shows the massive value of Tesla as a brand. The price doesn't even matter, the product just sells.

_ea1k 3y ago
To be fair, most of the orders were with the prices from the announcement. It is just that noone expects those to be the actual final price after these past few years. Which is crazy, considering that 3 and Y are pretty close to their prices from back then.
danpalmer 3y ago
They have a strong brand, but the fact that they are dropping prices and needing to do marketing where they haven't before suggests that perhaps the shine is wearing off, maybe they've saturated the market of people interested in the brand (and wealthy enough to afford the cars). The truck will be a new market, particularly in the US where trucks are so prevalent. This may be where their growth comes from – trucks rather than the Tesla brand. However they may be limiting themselves with such an... eccentric? approach and design.
- toomuchtodo 3y ago
  I traded a Toyota full size pickup truck in for my first Tesla, a Model S, because Tesla needed to move units to survive. I'm looking forward to closing the loop, trading that Model S (with almost 110k miles on it after driving cross country in six years) in for my Cybertruck. It's ugly, I love it, I don't care what it costs. The most popular vehicle in the US? The F150 [1]. You must dive into this market segment head on, as this vehicle population is responsible for substantial US mobility emissions [2]. Sell to younger people who want trucks, but want an electric truck. Same reason Harley Davidson spun their Livewire bike out to its own brand [3]: old people riding Harley's didn't want it, and that persona is dying out. So you have to create a new brand to cater to the persona you're targeting [4] [5]. [1] https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/02/ford-pickup-remains-americas-top-selling-truck-for-45th-year.html https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/02/ford-pickup-remains-americas... [2] https://record.umich.edu/articles/study-compares-greenhouse-gas-reductions-for-light-duty-vehicles/ https://record.umich.edu/articles/study-compares-greenhouse-... [3] https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/27/harley-davidson-spins-off-livewire-in-1point8-billion-spac-merger.html https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/27/harley-davidson-spins-off-li... [4] https://medium.com/startup-grind/people-dont-buy-products-they-buy-better-versions-of-themselves-2ce85fdb5ff1 https://medium.com/startup-grind/people-dont-buy-products-th... [5] https://www.useronboard.com/features-vs-benefits/ https://www.useronboard.com/features-vs-benefits/
  - serf 3y ago
    >So you have to create a new brand to cater to the persona you're targeting [4] [5]. Toyota tried to do that with Scion, it turned out to be a bad business move. Toyota had a brand-relationship with the idea of quality and value, whereas most people related Scion to the Korean groups Kia and Hyundai, which at the time only had very low-quality offerings in the United States. People didn't realize they were just rebranded Toyota. The resale suffered greatly compared to the mother company and after the gimmick of pseudo-Kei cars floundered in the west entirely they decided to just re-merge all of the vehicles back under the Toyota marque. My point being : certain sacrifices are made when a "hep to younger generations' rebrand occurs. For Toyota it was their brand awareness w.r.t. quality and value, and Scion couldn't hold its' own weight with just gimmicky offerings.
- ryandvm 3y ago
  > The truck will be a new market, particularly in the US where trucks are so prevalent. I have my doubts about how successful electric trucks are going to be in the short term. The US is in the grips of an intense culture war and eco-anything is part of it. Hell, there are truck owners here that deliberately make their trucks less environmentally friendly just to "own the libs". Truck enthusiasts despise electric vehicles and environmentalists recognize that no amount of marketing will make an 8,000 pound truck "green".
  - hotpotamus 3y ago
    You don't need to be an enthusiast to buy a truck; it's a nice-to-have even if you just do the occasional home improvement project (yeah you could rent one as needed, but it's easier just to use your own a lot of the time). I really like Ford's Maverick, and if someone made an electric like that for a reasonable price, I'd pick one up. The cybertruck aesthetic is way too "look at me" for me to actually want one, but I'll enjoy seeing them driving around. I have a colleague who seems somewhat serious about getting one, and I'll be happy to ride in it at least.
    - rootusrootus 3y ago
      I agree on the idea of an electric Maverick. One of the problems I have with the CT is size. Not only is it an opionated design with lots of usability compromises, but it's enormous. It's more or less the size of my F250, which I never drive unless I'm pulling my trailer. Because it's huge!
    - deleted 3y ago
      [deleted]
    - danpalmer 3y ago
      > You don't need to be an enthusiast to buy a truck; it's a nice-to-have even if you just do the occasional home improvement project (yeah you could rent one as needed, but it's easier just to use your own a lot of the time). The rest of the world would disagree on this. Many countries have the same necessities as the US, and yet trucks are an almost uniquely American concept (same may be true of Canada, I'm not familiar enough). To put it another way, I think the American baseline for "enthusiast" is far higher than elsewhere. I think it's a combination of: living far apart, multi-car households, high availability of car financing and the deep cultural desire for self-sufficiency. Most countries differ on one or more of these, and there may be other factors here.
- belltaco 3y ago
  They increased prices when production was low and then covid hit, and later supply chain cost inflation. The biggest driver behind price decreases this year has to be the super high interest rates on car loans, making financing expensive for consumers. Given that, 17.8% margins isn't too bad.
- _ea1k 3y ago
  > suggests that perhaps the shine is wearing off, maybe they've saturated the market of people interested in the brand I think it is that they've saturated the market. Y is literally on the brink of being the highest selling vehicle in the world and has a good chance of ending the year as the highest selling car in the US. They are squeezing ~1.7M units out of two models. It isn't hard to see why they've had to be aggressive on pricing to hit such crazy volume targets. For comparison, BMW does ~2.5M (including Mini) with well over 12 models. CT is going to be an interesting case. On the one hand, I think it is a fad product. I can't see a design like that holding a sustainable and large place in the market. OTOH, it is one of the few products that can avoid the "invisible car" effect. I routinely run into people who "never see electric cars". The CT is impossible to miss. Within 12 months of it being on the market, people will think it dominates the market for electric trucks, even if that isn't true.
mensetmanusman 3y ago
If Tesla didn’t exist, the largest EV brand would be in China. If SpaceX didn’t exist, China would be dominating space flights as well.
- moralestapia 3y ago
  Unfortunately, Tesla exists.
- margalabargala 3y ago
  That tracks. China's been consistently second-place to the US for a long time now, in a lot of different areas.
- bottlepalm 3y ago
  The only way to get to the ISS would be through Russia, and given the Ukraine war the ISS may have been decommissioned by now without SpaceX.

_ea1k 3y ago

> While I'd normally assume this is just review samples, 125K is far too many for that. The 125k is the capacity of the line. The industry always exaggerates these figures and Tesla is no different. For example, I've heard estimates that NUMMI had a capacity of >650k units. Under Toyota/GM it never did more than ~450k. Initial deliveries will be very slow. Though by January, they will likely be producing them much more quickly than Ford was producing Lightnings in Q3. :rofl

bombcar 3y ago
Line capacity is always based on perfect attendance, perfect supply, and the build vehicles never changing. So they could hit 125k if every single one was identical and nothing went wrong. Maybe.

starbase 3y ago

November 30th is a bit more than six weeks away. 125k is their annual production capacity, at present.

bonestamp2 3y ago

The launch event is Nov 30th. So, they've got 6 weeks to show some numbers, final features, etc.