9 ms·

Anyone know a good web site or publication that shows potential outcomes from all these different changes to global climate and where will be the best places to

by bogota 3y ago

Anyone know a good web site or publication that shows potential outcomes from all these different changes to global climate and where will be the best places to live in the future? Should i be looking to buy plots of property it Alaska?

jeo123 3y ago
The Day After Tomorrow by Roland Emmerich is one of the postulated scenario. It was very entertaining though a bit over the top. Part 2 sequel is very meh.
galangalalgol 3y ago
Altitude not latitude. Alaska would be a somewhat bad spot to live if AMOC slows way down. You want places where the local climate is not driven by the ocean or air currents, meaning there is very little air above them. Think Bogota, Quito, Addis Ababa etc.
- pengaru 3y ago
  > Due to its altitude, Quito receives some of the greatest solar radiation in the world, sometimes reaching a UV Index of 24 by solar noon. [0] High altitude isn't exactly a panacea... [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quito#Climate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quito#Climate
  - gmuslera 3y ago
    If you high enough you may reach the controlled environment of the ISS.
    - thulle 3y ago
      Gotta slap on more than a thick coat to go outside, and if you thought a hailstorm could get bad down here..
- redavni 3y ago
  Every local climate is driven by air currents, by which I assume you mean jet stream changes driving pressure changes...aka cold/warm fronts. The jet stream is significantly controlled by the heights of the Alps and the Rocky mountain ranges in the northern hemisphere and the air currents are driven by the Earth's rotation. The Earth is not going to stop rotating and the mountains are not shrinking. This is why weather scientists have been consistent that noticeable changes from global warming will be more extreme weather not massive changes.
  - galangalalgol 3y ago
    I agree the air currents matter. But at those altitudes the sun has a much larger impact than at lower ones. The models that rate places by impact consistently list high altitude cities with lower impacts.
getcrunk 3y ago
I be would naïvely think to move to up north to colder places because they will get warmer and have to deal the least with climate refuges. The equator will be death around it will be not that great, beyond that will be refuges. So Russia is looking great. There is a huge climate change boon Russia is set to receive within the next 50-100 years. Maybe Canada too and Scandinavia
- onlyrealcuzzo 3y ago
  > The equator will be death Massive hyperbole. If temperatures increase 4.5 f - in South America, where most people live around the equator will be fine. Same for Indonesia. India's population is pretty heavily focused in the North and should will also not all overheat to death. Don't know about Africa. Also - moving north if you think the AOC will collapse is a losing strategy. Scandinavia will be colder than Greenland today. Europe will be colder than Canada.
  - spaceman_2020 3y ago
    True. What will happen though is that these regions will suffer from stagnating (or even declining) productivity and anaemic growth. Farms will produce less so more energy will be used on fertilizers and irrigation. Everything will have to be air conditioned - more energy expenditure. At an individual level, productivity will drop off as people deal with the heat and humidity. Personally, living in India, I’ve watched my summers become worse and worse every year. And while I have no way to measure it, my productivity keeps going down with it in the summer.
    - staunton 3y ago
      You're missing access to water, which is perhaps the biggest issue.
  - lotsofpulp 3y ago
    I would have thought wet bulb temperatures would be the more relevant metric for when temperatures are too hot.
deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
dadarepublic 3y ago
There's a book "How to Prepare for Climate Change: A Practical Guide to Surviving the Chaos" by David Pogue that I found had some decent information related to your questions.
IKantRead 3y ago
For slowing currents, at least in the long run, there's reasonable evidence that, in the extreme, the ocean becomes anoxic[0], stops producing oxygen and starts releasing hydrogen sulfide instead. It's happened a few times in Earth's history [0] suspected to usually be caused climate change impacting ocean circulation. Peter Ward's Under a Green Sky does a fantastic overview of this subject, and outlines how most mass extinction events have likely been triggered by sudden changes in atmospheric CO2 through various mechanism. 0. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anoxic_event https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anoxic_event
hotpotamus 3y ago
Aren't all the oligarchs building their escape bunkers in New Zealand?
- tuatoru 3y ago
  Much good it will do them, if they can't personally put food on the table...
- AustinDev 3y ago
  If shit actually hit the fan, I assume they'd have to worry about insider threats from their staff.
  - hotpotamus 3y ago
    Isn't the trick to have a dead-man switch installed in your person which blows up the compound in the event that you're killed (or die of natural causes I suppose)? I'm sure they've thought through a lot of scenarios already.
    - somewhereoutth 3y ago
      Every human built thing (and almost every built thing is human built) can be 'unbuilt' by humans, often quickly and trivially. See door locks. The only sure way to protect yourself is to be part of a society - something our hunter gatherer forebears quickly latched onto.
      - wkat4242 3y ago
        Society is the first thing to break down in a disaster situation though.
        hgomersall 3y ago
        Evidence?
- senectus1 3y ago
tuatoru 3y ago
AMOC wiki page.[1] The AMOC has high "inter-annual variability", it changes a lot from year to year. Which is why they need 40 years' data to run statistical tests. North-western Europe isn't going to switch to a frozen mode, there will be hot years and cold years. It'll be all weather, all the time. Edit: as to where to live, I'd recommend staying in an OECD country, somewhere with a temperate maritime climate. Not at sea level, but 100 metres / 300ft up is enough. Near Vancouver or Seattle maybe. 1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_meridional_overturning_circulation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_meridional_overturnin...
gemstones 3y ago
The American midwest is relatively safe to settle in. St. Louis, Kansas City, Minneapolis, Indianapolis, Milwaukee, Detroit, and Chicago in particular.
- agency 3y ago
  The Great Lakes contain a fifth of the world's surface fresh water.
rngname22 3y ago
The Gulf stream is about making parts of the US east coast and northern Europe warmer. If you like being warm, you can leave those areas, but it's hard to say how much colder they will be or how quickly. For sea-level rise climate change mitigation, look at topographical maps of coastal areas. Some coastal areas have very quick climbs in elevation as you move inland. Others remain very shallow for incredible distances. The more dense an area is with wealth (think Manhattan), the more likely it is for there to be actual mitigation to sea-level rise like substantial seawalls. But the more dispersed the population and infrastructure is, the less possible that will be. For precipitation related changes, extreme weather / natural disaster related changes, etc. we don't have much reliable modeling. But consider what the economy and demographics are like in the area you reside in, how much existing poverty or famine there is, how reliable infrastructure is, and whether your area is a net food importer or net food exporter and how much margin it has to undergo decreased agricultural productivity and still feed itself. Consider the ease or difficulty with which net-food-importer-region displaced refugees would be able to migrate to your area, as well as the size of such populations.

by bogota 3y ago

jeo123 3y ago

The Day After Tomorrow by Roland Emmerich is one of the postulated scenario. It was very entertaining though a bit over the top. Part 2 sequel is very meh.

galangalalgol 3y ago

Altitude not latitude. Alaska would be a somewhat bad spot to live if AMOC slows way down. You want places where the local climate is not driven by the ocean or air currents, meaning there is very little air above them. Think Bogota, Quito, Addis Ababa etc.

pengaru 3y ago
> Due to its altitude, Quito receives some of the greatest solar radiation in the world, sometimes reaching a UV Index of 24 by solar noon. [0] High altitude isn't exactly a panacea... [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quito#Climate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quito#Climate
- gmuslera 3y ago
  If you high enough you may reach the controlled environment of the ISS.
  - thulle 3y ago
    Gotta slap on more than a thick coat to go outside, and if you thought a hailstorm could get bad down here..
redavni 3y ago
Every local climate is driven by air currents, by which I assume you mean jet stream changes driving pressure changes...aka cold/warm fronts. The jet stream is significantly controlled by the heights of the Alps and the Rocky mountain ranges in the northern hemisphere and the air currents are driven by the Earth's rotation. The Earth is not going to stop rotating and the mountains are not shrinking. This is why weather scientists have been consistent that noticeable changes from global warming will be more extreme weather not massive changes.
- galangalalgol 3y ago
  I agree the air currents matter. But at those altitudes the sun has a much larger impact than at lower ones. The models that rate places by impact consistently list high altitude cities with lower impacts.

getcrunk 3y ago

I be would naïvely think to move to up north to colder places because they will get warmer and have to deal the least with climate refuges. The equator will be death around it will be not that great, beyond that will be refuges. So Russia is looking great. There is a huge climate change boon Russia is set to receive within the next 50-100 years. Maybe Canada too and Scandinavia

onlyrealcuzzo 3y ago
> The equator will be death Massive hyperbole. If temperatures increase 4.5 f - in South America, where most people live around the equator will be fine. Same for Indonesia. India's population is pretty heavily focused in the North and should will also not all overheat to death. Don't know about Africa. Also - moving north if you think the AOC will collapse is a losing strategy. Scandinavia will be colder than Greenland today. Europe will be colder than Canada.
- spaceman_2020 3y ago
  True. What will happen though is that these regions will suffer from stagnating (or even declining) productivity and anaemic growth. Farms will produce less so more energy will be used on fertilizers and irrigation. Everything will have to be air conditioned - more energy expenditure. At an individual level, productivity will drop off as people deal with the heat and humidity. Personally, living in India, I’ve watched my summers become worse and worse every year. And while I have no way to measure it, my productivity keeps going down with it in the summer.
  - staunton 3y ago
    You're missing access to water, which is perhaps the biggest issue.
- lotsofpulp 3y ago
  I would have thought wet bulb temperatures would be the more relevant metric for when temperatures are too hot.

deleted 3y ago

[deleted]

dadarepublic 3y ago

There's a book "How to Prepare for Climate Change: A Practical Guide to Surviving the Chaos" by David Pogue that I found had some decent information related to your questions.

IKantRead 3y ago

For slowing currents, at least in the long run, there's reasonable evidence that, in the extreme, the ocean becomes anoxic[0], stops producing oxygen and starts releasing hydrogen sulfide instead. It's happened a few times in Earth's history [0] suspected to usually be caused climate change impacting ocean circulation. Peter Ward's Under a Green Sky does a fantastic overview of this subject, and outlines how most mass extinction events have likely been triggered by sudden changes in atmospheric CO2 through various mechanism. 0. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anoxic_event https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anoxic_event

hotpotamus 3y ago

Aren't all the oligarchs building their escape bunkers in New Zealand?

tuatoru 3y ago
Much good it will do them, if they can't personally put food on the table...
AustinDev 3y ago
If shit actually hit the fan, I assume they'd have to worry about insider threats from their staff.
- hotpotamus 3y ago
  Isn't the trick to have a dead-man switch installed in your person which blows up the compound in the event that you're killed (or die of natural causes I suppose)? I'm sure they've thought through a lot of scenarios already.
  - somewhereoutth 3y ago
    Every human built thing (and almost every built thing is human built) can be 'unbuilt' by humans, often quickly and trivially. See door locks. The only sure way to protect yourself is to be part of a society - something our hunter gatherer forebears quickly latched onto.
    - wkat4242 3y ago
      Society is the first thing to break down in a disaster situation though.
      - hgomersall 3y ago
        Evidence?
senectus1 3y ago

tuatoru 3y ago

AMOC wiki page.[1] The AMOC has high "inter-annual variability", it changes a lot from year to year. Which is why they need 40 years' data to run statistical tests. North-western Europe isn't going to switch to a frozen mode, there will be hot years and cold years. It'll be all weather, all the time. Edit: as to where to live, I'd recommend staying in an OECD country, somewhere with a temperate maritime climate. Not at sea level, but 100 metres / 300ft up is enough. Near Vancouver or Seattle maybe. 1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_meridional_overturning_circulation https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_meridional_overturnin...

gemstones 3y ago

The American midwest is relatively safe to settle in. St. Louis, Kansas City, Minneapolis, Indianapolis, Milwaukee, Detroit, and Chicago in particular.

agency 3y ago
The Great Lakes contain a fifth of the world's surface fresh water.

rngname22 3y ago

The Gulf stream is about making parts of the US east coast and northern Europe warmer. If you like being warm, you can leave those areas, but it's hard to say how much colder they will be or how quickly. For sea-level rise climate change mitigation, look at topographical maps of coastal areas. Some coastal areas have very quick climbs in elevation as you move inland. Others remain very shallow for incredible distances. The more dense an area is with wealth (think Manhattan), the more likely it is for there to be actual mitigation to sea-level rise like substantial seawalls. But the more dispersed the population and infrastructure is, the less possible that will be. For precipitation related changes, extreme weather / natural disaster related changes, etc. we don't have much reliable modeling. But consider what the economy and demographics are like in the area you reside in, how much existing poverty or famine there is, how reliable infrastructure is, and whether your area is a net food importer or net food exporter and how much margin it has to undergo decreased agricultural productivity and still feed itself. Consider the ease or difficulty with which net-food-importer-region displaced refugees would be able to migrate to your area, as well as the size of such populations.