7 ms·

Gulf Stream weakening now 99% certain, and ramifications will be global

81 points by mindracer 3y ago

tim333 3y ago
"has slowed by 4% over the past four decades" Wouldn't it be the case that the measurement of almost any aspect of nature will show a 4% change over 40 years and so can produce similar headlines? <X> is going up / going down. This has ramifications for the globe.
WD40forRust 3y ago
[flagged]
abfaqb 3y ago
[flagged]
- goodroot 3y ago
  New account eh? What's the point of this perspective? Please add something constructive. Their data did not look for cause, it looked to measure the current. It's refreshing to get non-sensationalized reporting. We can draw our own - very obvious - conclusion. And no, it isn't so that the 'WEF will take away your freedoms'.
- lugu 3y ago
  What are you talking about? Have you experience restrictions on private transportation or heating justified by incorrect climate change causality?
  - abfaqb 3y ago
    Yes, the EU will forbid the sale of new petrol vehicles starting in 2035.
    - throwbadubadu 3y ago
      Which is reasonable even if there was no climate catastrophe at all, I really hope I can fully experience unpolluted and much more silent inner cities in my lifetime! Anyway, regarding your freedom, you are free to leave to more free countries, where you can also have your leaded pipes and other unhealthy great things back!
      - wkat4242 3y ago
        For the cities, I'm kinda hoping cars will be banned altogether or made really expensive like London has done. Especially in cities with amazing public transport there's no reason to have so many cars around.
    - AnimalMuppet 3y ago
      So by "yes", you mean "no, and I won't for at least 12 more years".
    - lnxg33k1 3y ago
      I love the smell of gasoline in the morning
bogota 3y ago
Anyone know a good web site or publication that shows potential outcomes from all these different changes to global climate and where will be the best places to live in the future? Should i be looking to buy plots of property it Alaska?
- jeo123 3y ago
  The Day After Tomorrow by Roland Emmerich is one of the postulated scenario. It was very entertaining though a bit over the top. Part 2 sequel is very meh.
- galangalalgol 3y ago
  Altitude not latitude. Alaska would be a somewhat bad spot to live if AMOC slows way down. You want places where the local climate is not driven by the ocean or air currents, meaning there is very little air above them. Think Bogota, Quito, Addis Ababa etc.
  - pengaru 3y ago
    > Due to its altitude, Quito receives some of the greatest solar radiation in the world, sometimes reaching a UV Index of 24 by solar noon. [0] High altitude isn't exactly a panacea... [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quito#Climate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quito#Climate
    - gmuslera 3y ago
      If you high enough you may reach the controlled environment of the ISS.
      - thulle 3y ago
        Gotta slap on more than a thick coat to go outside, and if you thought a hailstorm could get bad down here..
  - redavni 3y ago
    Every local climate is driven by air currents, by which I assume you mean jet stream changes driving pressure changes...aka cold/warm fronts. The jet stream is significantly controlled by the heights of the Alps and the Rocky mountain ranges in the northern hemisphere and the air currents are driven by the Earth's rotation. The Earth is not going to stop rotating and the mountains are not shrinking. This is why weather scientists have been consistent that noticeable changes from global warming will be more extreme weather not massive changes.
outside1234 3y ago
One of the implications of the Gulf Stream weakening is that Northern Europe will get cold and Northern Northern Europe will get hella cold (eg. Norway): "If it collapses, it could lower temperatures by up to 10 or 15 degrees in Europe and lead to rising sea levels in the eastern US. It would also disrupt rain that billions rely on for agriculture."
- onlyrealcuzzo 3y ago
  It weakened by 4% over 40 years. Why should we be concerned it's going to weaken by 100% in less than 40 years? Why should we expect the climate will be the same in 100 years as it is today? The climate has always been changing. Europe was in an ice age from 1300 to 1850. Do you think we could've done anything to stop that? Or should have?
  - irdc 3y ago
    > It weakened by 4% over 40 years. Is that a little or a lot? Do you know? The Gulf Stream is what’s keeping my country habitable, so maybe I want a bit more reassurance? The periods you mention are associated with crop failure and widespread famine. There were a lot less people back then.
markab21 3y ago
[flagged]
- JamesBarney 3y ago
  - Accelerated ice melt - The Gulf Stream brings warm water near Greenland and Antarctica. Its weakening could disrupt this process, potentially speeding up ice sheet melt. I don't understand this one. Why would the reduction in warm water brought to Greenland cause the ice sheets to melt more?
  - kalupa 3y ago
    had to think about this a bit. It doesn't directly affect it, but it adds to the problem of global warming by increasing the temp gradient between the higher elevation interior and the cooler, lower elevation coast. This can cause more wind and increased evaporation, and, effectively, "pull" the damp air away from the central ice sheets. But that's just me speculating. It definitely seems counterintuitive.
    - JamesBarney 3y ago
      Overall all the effects either make the ice caps colder or warmer. If it's colder that helps with melting ice caps. If it's warmer than that makes the north more pleasant.
sieste 3y ago
The "Cold Blob" illustrates quite well what is happening. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cold_blob https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cold_blob
happytiger 3y ago
I mean given what we know about the Sahara and its wet and dry periods, it doesn’t seem at all illogical that ocean currents should start and stop to match. I think it’s important to understand that the earth is deeply dynamic and constantly changing, and has incredible variation in often cyclical patterns over hundreds, thousands and tens of thousands of years. While we know human caused elements are accelerating trends, it’s important to separate the human accelerant from the fact that the Earth herself goes through regular and quite massive changes — that climate change can affect — but that are normal, quite natural and quite civilization and food growing pattern interrupting sized. We have been in a period of unusual climate stability… Edit: I’m getting heavily downvoted so I feel the need to clarify, as this comment is not incorrect or even controversial in climate circles. We have experienced rapid changes inside of single human lifetimes many times, and It’s important to be able to talk about science openly without labeling everyone who doesn’t parrot exactly the narrative you expect them to conform to just because it kinda sorta looks like a climate denier even though it isn’t. Very much not what I would expect of the HN crowd. Here’s a write up: > Most likely, freshwater delivered from the ice sheet to the North Atlantic periodically disrupted the overturning of the ocean, causing the transport of tropical heat to the north to reduce and then suddenly increase again. While this mechanism is unlikely to occur today’s world, it does show us that, at least regionally, the climate is capable of extraordinary changes within a human lifetime – rapid switches we certainly want to avoid experiencing. https://www.bas.ac.uk/data/our-data/publication/ice-cores-and-climate-change/ https://www.bas.ac.uk/data/our-data/publication/ice-cores-an... Further: > A new study suggests climate conditions in the Sahara Desert have changed from wet to dry about every 20,000 years. The study was carried out by scientists at America's Massachusetts Institute of Technology, or MIT. Findings were published in the journal Science Advances. https://learningenglish.voanews.com/a/study-africa-s-sahara-changed-from-wet-to-dry-every-20-000-years/4727881.html#:~:text=A%20new%20study%20suggests%20climate,in%20the%20journal%20Science%20Advances https://learningenglish.voanews.com/a/study-africa-s-sahara-.... There is precious little discussion of the research on natural climate change and the patterns that man made climate change is enhancing, and it’s very, very important to learn about the natural cycles and how man made climate change changes them. If that’s worth downvoting simply because it doesn’t align with the Only Allowed NarrativeTM for anything climate related then HN is no longer the discussion platform for reasonably intelligent people it once was and that would be very sad indeed.
egman_ekki 3y ago
A recent Danish study predicted the collapse of Gulf Stream by the end of the century. https://www.politico.eu/article/climate-change-gulf-stream-atlantic-ocean-global-warming-nature-ditlevsen-copenhagen/ https://www.politico.eu/article/climate-change-gulf-stream-a...
deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
hnburnsy 3y ago
Would this weakening "help" retain Greenland and Arctic ice?

81 points by mindracer 3y ago

"has slowed by 4% over the past four decades" Wouldn't it be the case that the measurement of almost any aspect of nature will show a 4% change over 40 years and so can produce similar headlines? <X> is going up / going down. This has ramifications for the globe.

WD40forRust 3y ago

[flagged]

abfaqb 3y ago

[flagged]

goodroot 3y ago
New account eh? What's the point of this perspective? Please add something constructive. Their data did not look for cause, it looked to measure the current. It's refreshing to get non-sensationalized reporting. We can draw our own - very obvious - conclusion. And no, it isn't so that the 'WEF will take away your freedoms'.
lugu 3y ago
What are you talking about? Have you experience restrictions on private transportation or heating justified by incorrect climate change causality?
- abfaqb 3y ago
  Yes, the EU will forbid the sale of new petrol vehicles starting in 2035.
  - throwbadubadu 3y ago
    Which is reasonable even if there was no climate catastrophe at all, I really hope I can fully experience unpolluted and much more silent inner cities in my lifetime! Anyway, regarding your freedom, you are free to leave to more free countries, where you can also have your leaded pipes and other unhealthy great things back!
    - wkat4242 3y ago
      For the cities, I'm kinda hoping cars will be banned altogether or made really expensive like London has done. Especially in cities with amazing public transport there's no reason to have so many cars around.
  - AnimalMuppet 3y ago
    So by "yes", you mean "no, and I won't for at least 12 more years".
  - lnxg33k1 3y ago
    I love the smell of gasoline in the morning

bogota 3y ago

Anyone know a good web site or publication that shows potential outcomes from all these different changes to global climate and where will be the best places to live in the future? Should i be looking to buy plots of property it Alaska?

jeo123 3y ago
The Day After Tomorrow by Roland Emmerich is one of the postulated scenario. It was very entertaining though a bit over the top. Part 2 sequel is very meh.
galangalalgol 3y ago
Altitude not latitude. Alaska would be a somewhat bad spot to live if AMOC slows way down. You want places where the local climate is not driven by the ocean or air currents, meaning there is very little air above them. Think Bogota, Quito, Addis Ababa etc.
- pengaru 3y ago
  > Due to its altitude, Quito receives some of the greatest solar radiation in the world, sometimes reaching a UV Index of 24 by solar noon. [0] High altitude isn't exactly a panacea... [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quito#Climate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quito#Climate
  - gmuslera 3y ago
    If you high enough you may reach the controlled environment of the ISS.
    - thulle 3y ago
      Gotta slap on more than a thick coat to go outside, and if you thought a hailstorm could get bad down here..
- redavni 3y ago
  Every local climate is driven by air currents, by which I assume you mean jet stream changes driving pressure changes...aka cold/warm fronts. The jet stream is significantly controlled by the heights of the Alps and the Rocky mountain ranges in the northern hemisphere and the air currents are driven by the Earth's rotation. The Earth is not going to stop rotating and the mountains are not shrinking. This is why weather scientists have been consistent that noticeable changes from global warming will be more extreme weather not massive changes.

outside1234 3y ago

One of the implications of the Gulf Stream weakening is that Northern Europe will get cold and Northern Northern Europe will get hella cold (eg. Norway): "If it collapses, it could lower temperatures by up to 10 or 15 degrees in Europe and lead to rising sea levels in the eastern US. It would also disrupt rain that billions rely on for agriculture."

onlyrealcuzzo 3y ago
It weakened by 4% over 40 years. Why should we be concerned it's going to weaken by 100% in less than 40 years? Why should we expect the climate will be the same in 100 years as it is today? The climate has always been changing. Europe was in an ice age from 1300 to 1850. Do you think we could've done anything to stop that? Or should have?
- irdc 3y ago
  > It weakened by 4% over 40 years. Is that a little or a lot? Do you know? The Gulf Stream is what’s keeping my country habitable, so maybe I want a bit more reassurance? The periods you mention are associated with crop failure and widespread famine. There were a lot less people back then.

markab21 3y ago

[flagged]

JamesBarney 3y ago
- Accelerated ice melt - The Gulf Stream brings warm water near Greenland and Antarctica. Its weakening could disrupt this process, potentially speeding up ice sheet melt. I don't understand this one. Why would the reduction in warm water brought to Greenland cause the ice sheets to melt more?
- kalupa 3y ago
  had to think about this a bit. It doesn't directly affect it, but it adds to the problem of global warming by increasing the temp gradient between the higher elevation interior and the cooler, lower elevation coast. This can cause more wind and increased evaporation, and, effectively, "pull" the damp air away from the central ice sheets. But that's just me speculating. It definitely seems counterintuitive.
  - JamesBarney 3y ago
    Overall all the effects either make the ice caps colder or warmer. If it's colder that helps with melting ice caps. If it's warmer than that makes the north more pleasant.

sieste 3y ago

The "Cold Blob" illustrates quite well what is happening. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cold_blob https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cold_blob

happytiger 3y ago

I mean given what we know about the Sahara and its wet and dry periods, it doesn’t seem at all illogical that ocean currents should start and stop to match. I think it’s important to understand that the earth is deeply dynamic and constantly changing, and has incredible variation in often cyclical patterns over hundreds, thousands and tens of thousands of years. While we know human caused elements are accelerating trends, it’s important to separate the human accelerant from the fact that the Earth herself goes through regular and quite massive changes — that climate change can affect — but that are normal, quite natural and quite civilization and food growing pattern interrupting sized. We have been in a period of unusual climate stability… Edit: I’m getting heavily downvoted so I feel the need to clarify, as this comment is not incorrect or even controversial in climate circles. We have experienced rapid changes inside of single human lifetimes many times, and It’s important to be able to talk about science openly without labeling everyone who doesn’t parrot exactly the narrative you expect them to conform to just because it kinda sorta looks like a climate denier even though it isn’t. Very much not what I would expect of the HN crowd. Here’s a write up: > Most likely, freshwater delivered from the ice sheet to the North Atlantic periodically disrupted the overturning of the ocean, causing the transport of tropical heat to the north to reduce and then suddenly increase again. While this mechanism is unlikely to occur today’s world, it does show us that, at least regionally, the climate is capable of extraordinary changes within a human lifetime – rapid switches we certainly want to avoid experiencing. https://www.bas.ac.uk/data/our-data/publication/ice-cores-and-climate-change/ https://www.bas.ac.uk/data/our-data/publication/ice-cores-an... Further: > A new study suggests climate conditions in the Sahara Desert have changed from wet to dry about every 20,000 years. The study was carried out by scientists at America's Massachusetts Institute of Technology, or MIT. Findings were published in the journal Science Advances. https://learningenglish.voanews.com/a/study-africa-s-sahara-changed-from-wet-to-dry-every-20-000-years/4727881.html#:~:text=A%20new%20study%20suggests%20climate,in%20the%20journal%20Science%20Advances https://learningenglish.voanews.com/a/study-africa-s-sahara-.... There is precious little discussion of the research on natural climate change and the patterns that man made climate change is enhancing, and it’s very, very important to learn about the natural cycles and how man made climate change changes them. If that’s worth downvoting simply because it doesn’t align with the Only Allowed NarrativeTM for anything climate related then HN is no longer the discussion platform for reasonably intelligent people it once was and that would be very sad indeed.

egman_ekki 3y ago

A recent Danish study predicted the collapse of Gulf Stream by the end of the century. https://www.politico.eu/article/climate-change-gulf-stream-atlantic-ocean-global-warming-nature-ditlevsen-copenhagen/ https://www.politico.eu/article/climate-change-gulf-stream-a...

deleted 3y ago

[deleted]

hnburnsy 3y ago

Would this weakening "help" retain Greenland and Arctic ice?