Great points. One thing that is worth underlying, as unpopular a subject as it may be with this crowd, is the impact structural disadvantages in our society hav

Great points. One thing that is worth underlying, as unpopular a subject as it may be with this crowd, is the impact structural disadvantages in our society have. It comes down in many ways to, "how many turns at bat do you get?" As a parent, I think providing my kids with as many turns at bat is a better heuristic than what college they get into, etc. To Paul's point, there are actually ways to "earn" more times at bat — learning to read, or to draw, or to code. In America, that's something that most parents can provide — but worth emphasizing that even there, structural disadvantages come into play. This is why I support a universal basic income and disagree with the idea that everyone would become lazy and depressed. I actually think giving people more turns at bat wouldn't just set them up for potential success — it also would benefit society. As Paul points out — there are likely to be discoveries from unexpected people and places. There are a lot of brilliant people in the world, and they don't all look the way you'd expect, or come from places you'd expect. But in a world where institutions and organizations are less predictive of success, this diversity is worth keeping in mind. Great essay, but I'd add one thing that I think Paul has actually touched on before and is somewhat implicit here — it's often surprising just how little one needs to rise above average to hit that step function. Consistency, consistency, consistency.