Your point kind of illustrates the article: Past empires didn't learn from the history of earlier ones. Or failed to adapt to changing circumstances. And were

Your point kind of illustrates the article: Past empires didn't learn from the history of earlier ones. Or failed to adapt to changing circumstances. And were then caught by surprise. True, knowing what happened to past empires may not help to see where a current great power is heading. But it does help to avoid past empires' mistakes. China appears better at avoiding such mistakes than the US, imho. That said: "This integration into Western-dominated and US-constructed international institutions and organisations would not only help China to become a ‘responsible actor’. It would also serve to constrain Beijing's threat to the wider liberal international order, neuter China's threat as a great power competitor and leave the US's primacy unquestioned." Western policy may have failed at the 2nd half of this quote. But maybe it did succeed at the 1st part? At least to some degree? China's economy is highly connected with the rest of the world. Any large-scale conflict would cause China huge economic pain, regardless of the capability to develop its own tech / military, manufacture its own goods, grow its own food, etc. Had China been (more) excluded from integration with Western economies & Western-led institutions, but developed on its own anyway, then today it could 'flex its muscle' with impunity. In the current situation, not as much. One should alway keep such alternative scenarios in mind, before claiming the current situation is worse in any way. Every nation that's welcomed into the international community, once in has something to lose. And as someone wrote: "Germany after WW1 had little to lose, and dived 'happily' into WW2. But 40y later, not so much: they'd be scared to get a scratch on their Mercedes". Today's China is much in that 40y's-on situation I think. The average Chinese isn't doing too bad. Why risk that by starting a conflict with <insert military/economic power here> ?