11 ms·

I imagine that most people will have the capacity in their home machines to render stuff like this in video games in 10ish years.

fragmede 3y ago
10? I think we'll both be surprised by where we're at in 3. That's October, 2026.
- MPSimmons 3y ago
  Re-reading the paper, I totally missed the hardware that they did this on, which was consumer-level GPUs, so I think you may be right - 3 years is probably a good time frame for seeing this kind of tech in commercial games. My reasoning for initially saying 10ish years: GPU architecture release cadence is frequent, but not THAT frequent. NVidia released the Ampere (RTX 30X0) in 2020, 3 years ago. Ada Lovelace (RTX 40X0) was released a year ago, in Oct 2022. It's _possible_ to use 4090s to do medium neural-network things right now, but to be on the leading edge, you need multiple datacenter-level cards, each of which is > $5k. Even though it's possible to do crazy things with the most recent generation of GPUs, there don't yet exist games that really take advantage of it. The closest that I'm aware of is the Cyberpunk-level games that make native use of raytracing capabilities. I think it'll probably be a year or two before we see games come out that really require the level of 40-series cards ( or 7900-series if you're of the AMD persuasion), which is a lag-time of ~3 years after the cards were released. I think the software development time and market saturation are the driving factors in the gap here. I was under the mistaken impression that the video output was produced on the datacenter cards. They got reasonable performance on a 30-series NVidia card. In 3 years, it's totally reasonable to expect that AAA game players will have that level of GPU performance in their gaming machines, so yeah, I think you're right.
  - kridsdale1 3y ago
    Developers target where the market is. Until 2027 or so, that will be the PS5, which is somewhere around RTX 3060 or 2080 I think.

fragmede 3y ago

10? I think we'll both be surprised by where we're at in 3. That's October, 2026.

MPSimmons 3y ago
Re-reading the paper, I totally missed the hardware that they did this on, which was consumer-level GPUs, so I think you may be right - 3 years is probably a good time frame for seeing this kind of tech in commercial games. My reasoning for initially saying 10ish years: GPU architecture release cadence is frequent, but not THAT frequent. NVidia released the Ampere (RTX 30X0) in 2020, 3 years ago. Ada Lovelace (RTX 40X0) was released a year ago, in Oct 2022. It's _possible_ to use 4090s to do medium neural-network things right now, but to be on the leading edge, you need multiple datacenter-level cards, each of which is > $5k. Even though it's possible to do crazy things with the most recent generation of GPUs, there don't yet exist games that really take advantage of it. The closest that I'm aware of is the Cyberpunk-level games that make native use of raytracing capabilities. I think it'll probably be a year or two before we see games come out that really require the level of 40-series cards ( or 7900-series if you're of the AMD persuasion), which is a lag-time of ~3 years after the cards were released. I think the software development time and market saturation are the driving factors in the gap here. I was under the mistaken impression that the video output was produced on the datacenter cards. They got reasonable performance on a 30-series NVidia card. In 3 years, it's totally reasonable to expect that AAA game players will have that level of GPU performance in their gaming machines, so yeah, I think you're right.
- kridsdale1 3y ago
  Developers target where the market is. Until 2027 or so, that will be the PS5, which is somewhere around RTX 3060 or 2080 I think.