4 ms·

Man that author doesn't seem to like EVs at all.

AtlasBarfed 3y ago
Well the website is "enginelabs" and there ain't no engine in an EV. And MAN look at that "ammonia engine". All I have to do to judge the viability of the ammonia engine is look at that, it's simply too complex. By the time any ammonia infrastructure and production ready ammonia engine came to market (which assumes VAST amounts of government investment that should instead go to alternative energy, storage, and battery production/research), EV drivetrains would be probably half the cost of a traditional ICE, much less some new fangled ammonia thing. That's the reality that all the ICE makers are staring at: sure batteries and EV drivetrains are still a bit more expensive than a traditional ICE, but ... that's going to change, especially with 150 wh/kg sodium ion coming into mass production, which is a 300 mile car with potentially a $40/kw-hr bill of materials, and the sodium ion roadmap has 200+ wh/kg cells in a couple years. If that's not dense enough, there's 200+ wh/kg LFP now at about $60-70/kw-hr bill of materials, and 250 wh/kg on the roadmap. And sulfur techs / aluminum air / solid state and a host of other approaches on the 5-10 year that should double or triple density. There's simply going to be 20 years of cost reductions in EV drivetrains that ICE (and whatever that ammonia monstrosity is) simply cannot compete with. And EV drivetrains are much more flexible for application. The motors are pretty compact, so they can fit in wide ranges of vehicles, and the battery pack is pretty easily adapted: you scale the number of cells to the area available. For ICEs you usually have to stick to pretty standardized form factors or you have to design a transmission, driveshaft, engine, emissions, gas tank, etc to fit the application, and those usually won't have the cutting edge efficiency technology of the large market consumer vehicles.
- rootusrootus 3y ago
  > batteries and EV drivetrains are still a bit more expensive than a traditional ICE We're really close to crossing that line, maybe we even have already done so. For someone shopping new sedans, it's hard to argue with ROI on the Model 3 RWD right now.
  - AtlasBarfed 3y ago
    Tesla is almost certainly cheaper than an ICE, they are sitting on their profit margin to a large degree. Chinese makers are likely under it too. All the incumbents are still way over it, I hear like $140/kw-hr for things like the electric ford F-150. I'm fairly confident Tesla and the chinese are under $100/kw-hr, and that's without the forthcoming high density sodium ion/LFP cells that will probably get into cars in 2024. The Chinese EV makers are really the Sword of Damocles to Toyota and US/EU car makers. Tesla can already match them in costs, but if they gain access to the US market, the other car makers will have to eat a lot of losses to stay remotely price competitive with them.
    - rootusrootus 3y ago
      The only hope for the incumbents against Chinese EVs right now is tariffs and infrastructure. It takes a fair investment to build a support network that can compete with all the existing dealers with their service departments. But that is definitely not an insurmountable advantage.

Well the website is "enginelabs" and there ain't no engine in an EV. And MAN look at that "ammonia engine". All I have to do to judge the viability of the ammonia engine is look at that, it's simply too complex. By the time any ammonia infrastructure and production ready ammonia engine came to market (which assumes VAST amounts of government investment that should instead go to alternative energy, storage, and battery production/research), EV drivetrains would be probably half the cost of a traditional ICE, much less some new fangled ammonia thing. That's the reality that all the ICE makers are staring at: sure batteries and EV drivetrains are still a bit more expensive than a traditional ICE, but ... that's going to change, especially with 150 wh/kg sodium ion coming into mass production, which is a 300 mile car with potentially a $40/kw-hr bill of materials, and the sodium ion roadmap has 200+ wh/kg cells in a couple years. If that's not dense enough, there's 200+ wh/kg LFP now at about $60-70/kw-hr bill of materials, and 250 wh/kg on the roadmap. And sulfur techs / aluminum air / solid state and a host of other approaches on the 5-10 year that should double or triple density. There's simply going to be 20 years of cost reductions in EV drivetrains that ICE (and whatever that ammonia monstrosity is) simply cannot compete with. And EV drivetrains are much more flexible for application. The motors are pretty compact, so they can fit in wide ranges of vehicles, and the battery pack is pretty easily adapted: you scale the number of cells to the area available. For ICEs you usually have to stick to pretty standardized form factors or you have to design a transmission, driveshaft, engine, emissions, gas tank, etc to fit the application, and those usually won't have the cutting edge efficiency technology of the large market consumer vehicles.

rootusrootus 3y ago
> batteries and EV drivetrains are still a bit more expensive than a traditional ICE We're really close to crossing that line, maybe we even have already done so. For someone shopping new sedans, it's hard to argue with ROI on the Model 3 RWD right now.
- AtlasBarfed 3y ago
  Tesla is almost certainly cheaper than an ICE, they are sitting on their profit margin to a large degree. Chinese makers are likely under it too. All the incumbents are still way over it, I hear like $140/kw-hr for things like the electric ford F-150. I'm fairly confident Tesla and the chinese are under $100/kw-hr, and that's without the forthcoming high density sodium ion/LFP cells that will probably get into cars in 2024. The Chinese EV makers are really the Sword of Damocles to Toyota and US/EU car makers. Tesla can already match them in costs, but if they gain access to the US market, the other car makers will have to eat a lot of losses to stay remotely price competitive with them.
  - rootusrootus 3y ago
    The only hope for the incumbents against Chinese EVs right now is tariffs and infrastructure. It takes a fair investment to build a support network that can compete with all the existing dealers with their service departments. But that is definitely not an insurmountable advantage.