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Unless evidence is shown, I will remain very skeptical that Gaza has rockets large enough to kill 500 people.

mupuff1234 3y ago
How do you know that 500 people were killed?
JumpCrisscross 3y ago
> will remain very skeptical that Gaza has rockets large enough to kill 500 people In 2006, Hamas was fielding kit that could loft 17 kg of explosives [1]. Given the rocket is 66kg, that's a 25% payload fraction implying at least another 33kg of fuel at launch. Solid fuel should deflagrate. But it looks like they historically used a sugar/KNO3 premix [2]. I think that could detonate when strapped to an explosive while encountering terrain. Add to that pressurized systems commonly found in a hospital, e.g. oxygen, and the deadliness of a collapsing building, and I can see their circa 2006 kit doing the job. (Note: this is a back-of-the-envelope plausibility check only.) [1] https://handwiki.org/wiki/Engineering:Al_Quds_3 https://handwiki.org/wiki/Engineering:Al_Quds_3
- enterprise_cog 3y ago
  Or it could be the 500-1000lb bombs the IAF is dropping everywhere in Gaza. Occam’s razor and all that.
  - JumpCrisscross 3y ago
    > it could be the 500-1000lb bombs the IAF is dropping everywhere in Gaza Sure. But those are precision munitions. I don't think there's an Occam's razor solution through this bit of the fog of war. (Yes, I know I'm deflecting from the horrors on the ground by thinking about the rocket mechanics. I'm going to try to observe my plane crash rule of ignoring attribution hypotheses for at least one week after.)
    - enterprise_cog 3y ago
      And they precisely hit the target. Speaking of fog of war, the IAF could easily release logs of sorties flown, ammo taken, ammo used, and where it was used. They could do that right now. They have not. Makes you think.
      - JumpCrisscross 3y ago
        > the IAF could easily release logs of sorties flown, ammo taken, ammo used, and where it was used It's an active war zone. There are good tactical reasons for not immediately disclosing this. (You also want to make damn sure that you didn't have a trigger-happy racist go off piste.) Conducting that audit credibly takes time. Anyone arguing bombing a hospital at this time in this way furthered either side's strategic aims is missing context. This was a fuckup. To what degree, and at what level, is largely what's being lost or obscured.
        enterprise_cog 3y ago
        Tactical? Hamas has no AF and limited to no AA. An audit would take time, but why then would you be posting misleading or false videos and making contradictory claims about the strike? For instance: https://twitter.com/CensoredMen/status/1714355342987948106 https://twitter.com/CensoredMen/status/1714355342987948106 Edit: also check the footage the Israeli intelligence guy posted. Tell me that whistle you hear before impact truly sounds like a piece of falling debris. Strategic? What exactly is the strategic goal of Israel? And how is that accomplished by starving Gaza and cutting off electricity and water? Or the wanton destruction of Gaza? The cruelty is the point and this was no fuckup.
        JumpCrisscross 3y ago
        > Tactical? Hamas has no AF and limited to no AA One can't presume to know this. Not with soldiers' lives at stake. Also, there is real risk of regional conflagration. How an air force generates and sustains sorties is closely guarded, even in peacetime, for good reason. First, you'd scrub the information. Second, you'd weigh whether it's absolutely exonerating. Absent both conditions, it doesn't make sense to release those data. > What exactly is the strategic goal of Israel? Removing the ability of a hostile neighbor to project power into their territory. Currently, the chosen route appears to be decapitation. Eliminating the government in Gaza so it cannot wage war. To do that, Israel--a small country--has to maintain a web of regional and international support. Bombing a hospital might serve tactical aims à la total war. (There are zero cases of bombing a population into submission. The historical precedent is it strengthens resolve. Nevertheless, I mention it for completeness.) Unless Israel can credibly show this was done by Hamas, it has already lost more than it could have ever hoped to have gained by bombing a hospital. Even if it were smack over an Islamic Jihad weapons depot or whatever. > how is that accomplished by starving Gaza and cutting off electricity and water It denies the enemy the capacity to organize and wage war. I'm not ignoring the humanitarian effects. Just noting that power plants have been legitimate military targets for ages, and water supplies since time immemorial.
tguvot 3y ago
https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/irans-rockets-palestinian-groups https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/irans-rockets-palestini... also, it was 500 1min after it happen (very quick count), then it went down to 40 and then it went up again. don't forget those numbers are provided by hamas
johndunne 3y ago
Hospitals usually store large amounts of gas under high pressure, especially common is oxygen. And some of the rockets being produced inside the Gaza Strip have ranges of up to 160km (r160). That’s a lot of potential for an explosion… it’s heart breaking watching the news streaming from the region.

How do you know that 500 people were killed?

> will remain very skeptical that Gaza has rockets large enough to kill 500 people In 2006, Hamas was fielding kit that could loft 17 kg of explosives [1]. Given the rocket is 66kg, that's a 25% payload fraction implying at least another 33kg of fuel at launch. Solid fuel should deflagrate. But it looks like they historically used a sugar/KNO3 premix [2]. I think that could detonate when strapped to an explosive while encountering terrain. Add to that pressurized systems commonly found in a hospital, e.g. oxygen, and the deadliness of a collapsing building, and I can see their circa 2006 kit doing the job. (Note: this is a back-of-the-envelope plausibility check only.) [1] https://handwiki.org/wiki/Engineering:Al_Quds_3 https://handwiki.org/wiki/Engineering:Al_Quds_3

enterprise_cog 3y ago
Or it could be the 500-1000lb bombs the IAF is dropping everywhere in Gaza. Occam’s razor and all that.
- JumpCrisscross 3y ago
  > it could be the 500-1000lb bombs the IAF is dropping everywhere in Gaza Sure. But those are precision munitions. I don't think there's an Occam's razor solution through this bit of the fog of war. (Yes, I know I'm deflecting from the horrors on the ground by thinking about the rocket mechanics. I'm going to try to observe my plane crash rule of ignoring attribution hypotheses for at least one week after.)
  - enterprise_cog 3y ago
    And they precisely hit the target. Speaking of fog of war, the IAF could easily release logs of sorties flown, ammo taken, ammo used, and where it was used. They could do that right now. They have not. Makes you think.
    - JumpCrisscross 3y ago
      > the IAF could easily release logs of sorties flown, ammo taken, ammo used, and where it was used It's an active war zone. There are good tactical reasons for not immediately disclosing this. (You also want to make damn sure that you didn't have a trigger-happy racist go off piste.) Conducting that audit credibly takes time. Anyone arguing bombing a hospital at this time in this way furthered either side's strategic aims is missing context. This was a fuckup. To what degree, and at what level, is largely what's being lost or obscured.
      - enterprise_cog 3y ago
        Tactical? Hamas has no AF and limited to no AA. An audit would take time, but why then would you be posting misleading or false videos and making contradictory claims about the strike? For instance: https://twitter.com/CensoredMen/status/1714355342987948106 https://twitter.com/CensoredMen/status/1714355342987948106 Edit: also check the footage the Israeli intelligence guy posted. Tell me that whistle you hear before impact truly sounds like a piece of falling debris. Strategic? What exactly is the strategic goal of Israel? And how is that accomplished by starving Gaza and cutting off electricity and water? Or the wanton destruction of Gaza? The cruelty is the point and this was no fuckup.
        JumpCrisscross 3y ago
        > Tactical? Hamas has no AF and limited to no AA One can't presume to know this. Not with soldiers' lives at stake. Also, there is real risk of regional conflagration. How an air force generates and sustains sorties is closely guarded, even in peacetime, for good reason. First, you'd scrub the information. Second, you'd weigh whether it's absolutely exonerating. Absent both conditions, it doesn't make sense to release those data. > What exactly is the strategic goal of Israel? Removing the ability of a hostile neighbor to project power into their territory. Currently, the chosen route appears to be decapitation. Eliminating the government in Gaza so it cannot wage war. To do that, Israel--a small country--has to maintain a web of regional and international support. Bombing a hospital might serve tactical aims à la total war. (There are zero cases of bombing a population into submission. The historical precedent is it strengthens resolve. Nevertheless, I mention it for completeness.) Unless Israel can credibly show this was done by Hamas, it has already lost more than it could have ever hoped to have gained by bombing a hospital. Even if it were smack over an Islamic Jihad weapons depot or whatever. > how is that accomplished by starving Gaza and cutting off electricity and water It denies the enemy the capacity to organize and wage war. I'm not ignoring the humanitarian effects. Just noting that power plants have been legitimate military targets for ages, and water supplies since time immemorial.

tguvot 3y ago

https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/irans-rockets-palestinian-groups https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/irans-rockets-palestini... also, it was 500 1min after it happen (very quick count), then it went down to 40 and then it went up again. don't forget those numbers are provided by hamas

johndunne 3y ago

Hospitals usually store large amounts of gas under high pressure, especially common is oxygen. And some of the rockets being produced inside the Gaza Strip have ranges of up to 160km (r160). That’s a lot of potential for an explosion… it’s heart breaking watching the news streaming from the region.