4 ms·

I worry about my future as a programmer/techie. Are the good times over?

nvarsj 3y ago
Nope. We still have one of the most privileged jobs around with plenty of demand for our foreseeable life times. Just don’t let yourself become obsolete.
f6v 3y ago
My limited data says: “for some, for now”.
sargun 3y ago
"Enjoy the party, but stay close to the door." https://twitter.com/bcantrill/status/572952707788505088 https://twitter.com/bcantrill/status/572952707788505088
- latchkey 3y ago
  You totally missed best part of the quote. "enjoy the party, but dance close to the door"
  - sargun 3y ago
    ha, I don't know how dance turned into stay. Brain decided that was better than dancing I guess.
UncleOxidant 3y ago
Yes, unless you have some actual AI experience.
zymhan 3y ago
We've been asking this question since computers were invented. It'll be okay. If tech could survive the dot-com bubble, it can survive higher interest and inflation.
superfrank 3y ago
No. We had a short lived tech bubble and it's deflating now. The people who seem to be panicking the most are the people who are currently in college or only have a year or two of experience. What those people need to realize is that their only experience with the tech industry was during an abnormal time. When all you're used to is the abnormal, returning to normal feels scary, but that's all that is happening. If you're panicked, you need to take a hard look at our industry and realize how insane our industry was for the past few years. My company isn't even one of the FAANGs and we were paying interns 6 figures. I know people in other industries who have over a decade of experience who are paid less than the FAANGs pay entry level hires. That's not normal and that's not sustainable. Salaries will depress a bit, but SWEs will likely still make far above average. If you're worried about jobs, just look at the stock market. Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Meta are all in the top 6 biggest companies in the US (by market cap). Those companies aren't going anywhere and they have a massive amount of code to maintain. Developers aren't going anywhere anytime soon. The dot com bubble and the great recession were both way worse than what we are experiencing, but tech continued to grow.
- akomtu 3y ago
  This paints a rosy picture. In 2010, those 6 figures would buy you a decent house. Today a 100k salary buys as much as maybe 50k ten years ago: a decent car, an ok rent and some food.
  - superfrank 3y ago
    Cut the woe is me bullshit. It's totally fine to be focused on your salary or think that things could be better, but to acting like you're barely scraping by on a 100k a year is so fucking tone deaf it's borderline offensive. Maybe it's just because all my closest friends work non-tech jobs and I see their struggles compared to mine, but it really irks me when tech workers act slighted about their salaries. Responding to your points, first, inflation calculators exist. 100k today is a little over 75k 10 years ago. Coincidentally, that's exactly how much I was making in 2014 living in a HCOL city, so I'm well aware exactly how far that goes. I definitely had money to save up for a house, but it still would have taken years of budgeting for me to get a down payment together for a starter home. Similar to 100k now, it was more than I needed to live a decent day to day life, but I still needed to plan for longer term financial goals. Second, the average US salary is something like 55k. Even today a 100k salary would put your salary in the top 25% for US workers. I know plenty of junior developers with 1-2 years of experience making a good bit more than that. Even the low end of developer salaries puts you well above what most people in the US make. Obviously where you live matters, but in pretty much every region most non-tech employees will make less than your average developer at the same level of experience. Tech (in the US) pays very well and I don't any other industry pays better compared to the amount of work needed to get your foot in the door. We've had it very, very good for a long time and even if things cool off a little bit, we're still going to have it far better than most. All this makes me think of is "When you're accustomed to privilege, equality feels like oppression"
CHSbeachbum420 3y ago
Oh yeah...no doubt. Children are learning programming. You need to specialize
- mywittyname 3y ago
  Children were learning to program when I was young (and before), yet we still have a shortage of tech workers. We teach children math, but that doesn't mean we're going to end up with an glut of actuaries. Lots of people hate working in tech.
ElevenLathe 3y ago
It depends where you are in your career, but I definitely think that we're headed into a recession that will be tough for early-career folks. The amount of value that experienced ops and appdev hands can provide isn't going down, so their salaries shouldn't. BUT I think we're looking at a downward trend in the amount of value a new CS grad can provide to most businesses (besides maybe bargain-basement body shop type operations like CapGemini and friends). I think (IOW no data to support this, but I'd be interested in seeing it if anyone has some) this trend has been ongoing for a while now but was kind of papered over by overhiring (some say "talent hoarding") caused by low interest rates. This is all speculation of course, but I think things will be harder for a new CS grad today -- at least for a while -- but it will still probably be a fulfilling, not-impoverishing career if you can get started. Unfortunately, I think the ship has sailed on nontraditional entrants to the tech job market (folks like me who never got a CS degree at all). Established professionals are probably in a pretty good spot and, with a pipeline issue (fewer young people able to enter the field), their value may even increase.

Nope. We still have one of the most privileged jobs around with plenty of demand for our foreseeable life times. Just don’t let yourself become obsolete.

f6v 3y ago

My limited data says: “for some, for now”.

sargun 3y ago

"Enjoy the party, but stay close to the door." https://twitter.com/bcantrill/status/572952707788505088 https://twitter.com/bcantrill/status/572952707788505088

latchkey 3y ago
You totally missed best part of the quote. "enjoy the party, but dance close to the door"
- sargun 3y ago
  ha, I don't know how dance turned into stay. Brain decided that was better than dancing I guess.

UncleOxidant 3y ago

Yes, unless you have some actual AI experience.

zymhan 3y ago

We've been asking this question since computers were invented. It'll be okay. If tech could survive the dot-com bubble, it can survive higher interest and inflation.

superfrank 3y ago

No. We had a short lived tech bubble and it's deflating now. The people who seem to be panicking the most are the people who are currently in college or only have a year or two of experience. What those people need to realize is that their only experience with the tech industry was during an abnormal time. When all you're used to is the abnormal, returning to normal feels scary, but that's all that is happening. If you're panicked, you need to take a hard look at our industry and realize how insane our industry was for the past few years. My company isn't even one of the FAANGs and we were paying interns 6 figures. I know people in other industries who have over a decade of experience who are paid less than the FAANGs pay entry level hires. That's not normal and that's not sustainable. Salaries will depress a bit, but SWEs will likely still make far above average. If you're worried about jobs, just look at the stock market. Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Meta are all in the top 6 biggest companies in the US (by market cap). Those companies aren't going anywhere and they have a massive amount of code to maintain. Developers aren't going anywhere anytime soon. The dot com bubble and the great recession were both way worse than what we are experiencing, but tech continued to grow.

akomtu 3y ago
This paints a rosy picture. In 2010, those 6 figures would buy you a decent house. Today a 100k salary buys as much as maybe 50k ten years ago: a decent car, an ok rent and some food.
- superfrank 3y ago
  Cut the woe is me bullshit. It's totally fine to be focused on your salary or think that things could be better, but to acting like you're barely scraping by on a 100k a year is so fucking tone deaf it's borderline offensive. Maybe it's just because all my closest friends work non-tech jobs and I see their struggles compared to mine, but it really irks me when tech workers act slighted about their salaries. Responding to your points, first, inflation calculators exist. 100k today is a little over 75k 10 years ago. Coincidentally, that's exactly how much I was making in 2014 living in a HCOL city, so I'm well aware exactly how far that goes. I definitely had money to save up for a house, but it still would have taken years of budgeting for me to get a down payment together for a starter home. Similar to 100k now, it was more than I needed to live a decent day to day life, but I still needed to plan for longer term financial goals. Second, the average US salary is something like 55k. Even today a 100k salary would put your salary in the top 25% for US workers. I know plenty of junior developers with 1-2 years of experience making a good bit more than that. Even the low end of developer salaries puts you well above what most people in the US make. Obviously where you live matters, but in pretty much every region most non-tech employees will make less than your average developer at the same level of experience. Tech (in the US) pays very well and I don't any other industry pays better compared to the amount of work needed to get your foot in the door. We've had it very, very good for a long time and even if things cool off a little bit, we're still going to have it far better than most. All this makes me think of is "When you're accustomed to privilege, equality feels like oppression"

CHSbeachbum420 3y ago

Oh yeah...no doubt. Children are learning programming. You need to specialize

mywittyname 3y ago
Children were learning to program when I was young (and before), yet we still have a shortage of tech workers. We teach children math, but that doesn't mean we're going to end up with an glut of actuaries. Lots of people hate working in tech.

ElevenLathe 3y ago

It depends where you are in your career, but I definitely think that we're headed into a recession that will be tough for early-career folks. The amount of value that experienced ops and appdev hands can provide isn't going down, so their salaries shouldn't. BUT I think we're looking at a downward trend in the amount of value a new CS grad can provide to most businesses (besides maybe bargain-basement body shop type operations like CapGemini and friends). I think (IOW no data to support this, but I'd be interested in seeing it if anyone has some) this trend has been ongoing for a while now but was kind of papered over by overhiring (some say "talent hoarding") caused by low interest rates. This is all speculation of course, but I think things will be harder for a new CS grad today -- at least for a while -- but it will still probably be a fulfilling, not-impoverishing career if you can get started. Unfortunately, I think the ship has sailed on nontraditional entrants to the tech job market (folks like me who never got a CS degree at all). Established professionals are probably in a pretty good spot and, with a pipeline issue (fewer young people able to enter the field), their value may even increase.