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There is absolutely no chance whatsoever that robots that are so real they are indistinguishable from people will come about in our lifetimes. The amount of bre

by mvdtnz 3y ago

There is absolutely no chance whatsoever that robots that are so real they are indistinguishable from people will come about in our lifetimes. The amount of breathless speculation since OpenAI released a kind-of-decent text completion program is so far beyond ridiculous at this point.

ofslidingfeet 3y ago
Maybe you're much sharper than I am, but I am thoroughly convinced that what already exists could fool me for a long time under the right circumstances.
huytersd 3y ago
ChatGPT could fool a lot of people already. Unless you’re looking to probe and check it’s an AI you probably won’t detect it over a chat session, especially with the right prompt giving it a background, context and the right speech/chat patterns.
- mvdtnz 3y ago
  Maybe in a text chat, but in a fluid one-on-one in-person conversation, or in a group conversation? Absolutely no chance, and no reason to believe it will get to this level, maybe ever.
  - huytersd 3y ago
    I mean, have you tried chatGPT’s latest multimodal speech update. The voice generation is pretty damn human like. Again with the right prompt you could definitely fool someone for a while using voice, since that mode is pretty conversational and includes the AI asking relevant, context specific follow up questions. For an in person, we would need to generate full fledged bodies that probably isn’t happening soon but it’s not insane to think of a mechanical robot under structure covered by artificially generated meat (which we can make now) with a chatGPT brain from 10 years in the future.
- modeless 3y ago
  They are talking about physical robots. Replicants/cylons, as referenced in the article. I agree with them. Sci-fi style androids will definitely be feasible soon. Some of them will be capable of acting like humans, displaying convincing emotions, forming relationships, etc. However, they will definitely not be indistinguishable from humans at a physical level; not even remotely close. Even AGI will not achieve that in our lifetimes, unless it first cures aging and disease thus extending our lifetimes indefinitely, which I also (sadly) regard as exceedingly unlikely in our lifetimes.
  - 13years 3y ago
    AGI may only be a momentary transitional state. It is assumed that ASI almost immediately follows AGI as once the machine is self aware and can improve itself then exponential intelligence takeoff is achieved.
  - GoblinSlayer 3y ago
    They can start with virtual dolls (MMD) right now, except gpt has no idea how to move a body, virtual or not.
    - 13years 3y ago
      Generalized robotic skills may have just been solved. The paper https://storage.googleapis.com/deepmind-media/DeepMind.com/Blog/scaling-up-learning-across-many-different-robot-types/Open_X_Embodiment__Robotic_Learning_Datasets_and_RT_X_Models.pdf https://storage.googleapis.com/deepmind-media/DeepMind.com/B... Explanation https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GZdytTKeGYM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GZdytTKeGYM
- aeternum 3y ago
  A single person can also fool a lot of people.
13years 3y ago
Humans perform terribly at exponential estimation. Many AI scientists and researchers are now saying AGI will be within our lifetimes and some are saying within a few years. If that happens, lifelike robotics will be one of the lesser achievements. If your opinion is that we will not achieve AGI, then I would say your outlook is probably consistent.
cgio 3y ago
My gripe is that, if a robot does something, it is not post truth, it is actual, real, truth. We should not confuse discourse on truth with discourse on identity.
safety1st 3y ago
The first sentence is true, but the second raises the question: are we so gullible that the robots don't need to be indistinguishable in order to fool most people? While the tech is great, if anything I feel like what OpenAI has revealed to us is that we're still a bunch of superstitious apes that are just not cognitively equipped to reason about what we've created. It feels like a new age of religion is dawning in which we construct myths about the tools we build, instead of myths about the forces of nature. At one point we blamed bad weather on the gods. Our gods now are technological. The cryptocurrency movement was more belief than tool. The AI panic is more belief than tool. We are apes and we have always worshiped falsehoods but now the falsehoods we worship are unknowable artifacts of technology, Arthur C. Clarke was prescient when he said - "Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic"
throwing_away 3y ago
I would be 0% surprised to find out this comment was written by a bot.
olgeni 3y ago
> There is absolutely no chance whatsoever that robots that are so real they are indistinguishable from people will come about in our lifetimes. Yet the Prince of Nigeria keeps sending emails to good effect. Makes you think :)
CrazyPyroLinux 3y ago
Makes me think of: "Never, no matter what the development of science, will men, who have concern for their reputation, attempt for forecast the weather" https://www.nssl.noaa.gov/users/brooks/public_html/future/technology_fn.html#fn2 https://www.nssl.noaa.gov/users/brooks/public_html/future/te...

by mvdtnz 3y ago

ofslidingfeet 3y ago

Maybe you're much sharper than I am, but I am thoroughly convinced that what already exists could fool me for a long time under the right circumstances.

huytersd 3y ago

ChatGPT could fool a lot of people already. Unless you’re looking to probe and check it’s an AI you probably won’t detect it over a chat session, especially with the right prompt giving it a background, context and the right speech/chat patterns.

mvdtnz 3y ago
Maybe in a text chat, but in a fluid one-on-one in-person conversation, or in a group conversation? Absolutely no chance, and no reason to believe it will get to this level, maybe ever.
- huytersd 3y ago
  I mean, have you tried chatGPT’s latest multimodal speech update. The voice generation is pretty damn human like. Again with the right prompt you could definitely fool someone for a while using voice, since that mode is pretty conversational and includes the AI asking relevant, context specific follow up questions. For an in person, we would need to generate full fledged bodies that probably isn’t happening soon but it’s not insane to think of a mechanical robot under structure covered by artificially generated meat (which we can make now) with a chatGPT brain from 10 years in the future.
modeless 3y ago
They are talking about physical robots. Replicants/cylons, as referenced in the article. I agree with them. Sci-fi style androids will definitely be feasible soon. Some of them will be capable of acting like humans, displaying convincing emotions, forming relationships, etc. However, they will definitely not be indistinguishable from humans at a physical level; not even remotely close. Even AGI will not achieve that in our lifetimes, unless it first cures aging and disease thus extending our lifetimes indefinitely, which I also (sadly) regard as exceedingly unlikely in our lifetimes.
- 13years 3y ago
  AGI may only be a momentary transitional state. It is assumed that ASI almost immediately follows AGI as once the machine is self aware and can improve itself then exponential intelligence takeoff is achieved.
- GoblinSlayer 3y ago
  They can start with virtual dolls (MMD) right now, except gpt has no idea how to move a body, virtual or not.
  - 13years 3y ago
    Generalized robotic skills may have just been solved. The paper https://storage.googleapis.com/deepmind-media/DeepMind.com/Blog/scaling-up-learning-across-many-different-robot-types/Open_X_Embodiment__Robotic_Learning_Datasets_and_RT_X_Models.pdf https://storage.googleapis.com/deepmind-media/DeepMind.com/B... Explanation https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GZdytTKeGYM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GZdytTKeGYM
aeternum 3y ago
A single person can also fool a lot of people.

13years 3y ago

Humans perform terribly at exponential estimation. Many AI scientists and researchers are now saying AGI will be within our lifetimes and some are saying within a few years. If that happens, lifelike robotics will be one of the lesser achievements. If your opinion is that we will not achieve AGI, then I would say your outlook is probably consistent.

cgio 3y ago

My gripe is that, if a robot does something, it is not post truth, it is actual, real, truth. We should not confuse discourse on truth with discourse on identity.

safety1st 3y ago

The first sentence is true, but the second raises the question: are we so gullible that the robots don't need to be indistinguishable in order to fool most people? While the tech is great, if anything I feel like what OpenAI has revealed to us is that we're still a bunch of superstitious apes that are just not cognitively equipped to reason about what we've created. It feels like a new age of religion is dawning in which we construct myths about the tools we build, instead of myths about the forces of nature. At one point we blamed bad weather on the gods. Our gods now are technological. The cryptocurrency movement was more belief than tool. The AI panic is more belief than tool. We are apes and we have always worshiped falsehoods but now the falsehoods we worship are unknowable artifacts of technology, Arthur C. Clarke was prescient when he said - "Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic"

throwing_away 3y ago

I would be 0% surprised to find out this comment was written by a bot.

olgeni 3y ago

> There is absolutely no chance whatsoever that robots that are so real they are indistinguishable from people will come about in our lifetimes. Yet the Prince of Nigeria keeps sending emails to good effect. Makes you think :)

CrazyPyroLinux 3y ago

Makes me think of: "Never, no matter what the development of science, will men, who have concern for their reputation, attempt for forecast the weather" https://www.nssl.noaa.gov/users/brooks/public_html/future/technology_fn.html#fn2 https://www.nssl.noaa.gov/users/brooks/public_html/future/te...