3 ms·
> https://www.shadowstats.com/ https://www.shadowstats.com/ No. Just No. First off the math makes absolutely no sense: > But if we take away the outlier 2020
by throw0101c 3y ago
> https://www.shadowstats.com/ https://www.shadowstats.com/
No. Just No.
First off the math makes absolutely no sense:
> But if we take away the outlier 2020 data points, the average real annual GDP growth from 2010-2019 was 2.3%. The inflation rate in that time averaged roughly 1.8% per year.
> If you’re one of the conspiracy people who believe inflation has actually been running at 5-6% per year, that would assume the economy has been contracting by 1-3% per year over the past 10 years.
> And if you’re a full tinfoil hat person who assumes inflation is actually 10-12% per year[2], that’s like saying we’ve been in a full-blown depression and the economy has lost 80% of its value.
* https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2021/01/inflation-truthers/ https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2021/01/inflation-truthers/
Second, the methodology is all wrong:
* https://www.fullstackeconomics.com/p/no-the-real-inflation-rate-isnt-14-percent https://www.fullstackeconomics.com/p/no-the-real-inflation-r...
As much as you can call it a "methodology" of taking the official CPI number and adding your own, which the author of the site admits to:
> I’m not going back and recalculating the CPI. All I’m doing is going back to the government’s estimates of what the effect would be and using that as an add factor to the reported statistics.
* http://econbrowser.com/archives/2008/10/shadowstats_res http://econbrowser.com/archives/2008/10/shadowstats_res
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shadowstats.com#Negative https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shadowstats.com#Negative
Further, the current price of a subscription to the 'full report' is $175/year right now, the same as it was in 2014:
* https://www.pragcap.com/update-theres-still-deflation-in-hyperinflation-forecasts/ https://www.pragcap.com/update-theres-still-deflation-in-hyp...
the same as it was in 2008:
* https://www.pragcap.com/why-is-there-deflation-in-hyperinflation-forecasts/ https://www.pragcap.com/why-is-there-deflation-in-hyperinfla...
So even though there is supposed to be very-high inflation per this site, the site itself (and all the staff that have cost of living expenses) has not experienced this very-high inflation over the last fifteen years? Really?
But you don't have to pay that amount because here's the formula in how they determine their 'inflation rate'
SHADOWSTATS(t) = 1.9 + 0.0055*t + CPIAUCNS(t)
* https://old.reddit.com/r/badeconomics/comments/3zik5t/shadowstatscom/ https://old.reddit.com/r/badeconomics/comments/3zik5t/shadow...
Of course you don't have to take anyone else's word for it, but do your own analysis:
> Compare the government statistic to what MIT's Billion Prices Project (an index of internet prices, scraped daily) found. CPI and the BPP index are very tightly intertwined, whereas SGS would be way, way off.
* https://old.reddit.com/r/Economics/comments/omfrm/3_reasons_people_need_to_stop_citing_shadowstats/c3ig3qb/ https://old.reddit.com/r/Economics/comments/omfrm/3_reasons_...
* http://bpp.mit.edu/usa/ http://bpp.mit.edu/usa/
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MIT_Billion_Prices_project https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MIT_Billion_Prices_project