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You're right, the model would be improved by adding depreciation. I suspect it would increase the disparity, making the Bolt even cheaper. But I don't know that

by usea 3y ago

You're right, the model would be improved by adding depreciation. I suspect it would increase the disparity, making the Bolt even cheaper. But I don't know that without looking into it more. I think I will at least look at the topic when I do this again next year. Thanks for bringing it up to me. There are lots of other things not included in the model, too. I would need to pay a contractor to add a 240 outlet to my garage, which will be like $500 since it's next to the breaker box. I will also spend hours of my life waiting for the car to charge during trips over those ten years. I bet people probably underestimate how much that will suck before they buy an EV. I could include a healthcare cost adjustment due to safety ratings, the impact of which I probably grossly underestimate. I think the biggest omission is change in the gas:electricity price ratio over ten years. Using current values for the whole ten years is a mistake, considering it's the main difference between the options and is likely to change a lot. edit: also I'm sorry for the tone of my previous post. I didn't mean for it to sound that way.

jjav 3y ago
> I suspect it would increase the disparity, making the Bolt even cheaper. Depends, but depreciation generally benefits older cars and hurts new cars. If you buy a Civic that has depreciated to 5-6K, there's not a lot of room to depreciate more. Unless it completely dies, you can use it for a long time and it's still worth 3-5K. Occasionally older cars even go up in value. I bought an Acura for 6K and sold it for 6K almost 15 years later. I bought a Mazda for 3K and sold it for 6K nine years later. New cars are the worst for depreciation, the moment you drive out the dealer lot it's worth thousands less. And over a few years, the depreciation curve is quite steep until it flattens later. Very brand/model dependent so YMMV.

by usea 3y ago

jjav 3y ago

> I suspect it would increase the disparity, making the Bolt even cheaper. Depends, but depreciation generally benefits older cars and hurts new cars. If you buy a Civic that has depreciated to 5-6K, there's not a lot of room to depreciate more. Unless it completely dies, you can use it for a long time and it's still worth 3-5K. Occasionally older cars even go up in value. I bought an Acura for 6K and sold it for 6K almost 15 years later. I bought a Mazda for 3K and sold it for 6K nine years later. New cars are the worst for depreciation, the moment you drive out the dealer lot it's worth thousands less. And over a few years, the depreciation curve is quite steep until it flattens later. Very brand/model dependent so YMMV.