4 ms·

Can't wait for 51% tipping point for EV on the road, any chance by 2030? Not just exhaust pollution eliminated but because of regenerative braking there is far

by ck2 3y ago

Can't wait for 51% tipping point for EV on the road, any chance by 2030? Not just exhaust pollution eliminated but because of regenerative braking there is far less PM2.5 brakepad dust flying around at intersections. Just like banning leaded gas in cars improved health for the next generation I think 51% EV will do similar.

keep_reading 3y ago
We're mostly trading brake dust for tire particulates so we should keep that in mind but at least the tailpipe emission reduction helps a lot of other air quality issues
testfoobar 3y ago
EVs are much heavier than ICE vehicles. The extra weight leads to much greater wear on tires per mile of travel. This leads to a substantial increase in tire dust - a significant pollutant. https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2023/07/electric-vehicles-tires-wearing-out-particulates/674750/ https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2023/07/elect...
- jemmyw 3y ago
  It'd be good to see some numbers because that article is pretty vague on where the fault lies. A Tesla 3 is about the same weight as my Ford Mondeo, same shape car. The article points out that (a) Americans buy larger cars than are perhaps necessary and (b) it's the acceleration that causes an issue too. Nowhere is it saying how much worse the problem is. I would say this is a low quality article.
- natch 3y ago
  But not brake dust.
- dymk 3y ago
  This "point" gets parroted everywhere EVs come up, but the proof is basically nonexistant or misleading at best.
- cantaloupe 3y ago
  That’s not really supported by evidence. Among other points against, tire dust scales linearly with weight and EVs are only about 20% heavier then comparable ICEs (e.g. model 3 vs Camry). That’s not even accounting for regenerative braking. https://dynomight.net/tires/ https://dynomight.net/tires/
  - jjav 3y ago
    > That’s not even accounting for regenerative braking. That has no relation to tire wear rubber dust. It's not controversial that a heavier car that accelerates faster will wear out tires much faster (thus generate more rubber particles into the air). Sure, EVs generate way less brake pad dust. But that's a tiny contribution to pollution. Brake pads are tiny compared to tires and in over 100K I've yet to wear out the brake pads on my ICE minivan but I've changed tires three times.
    - belltaco 3y ago
      10% to 20% more tire dust but none of the dozens of pollutants from burning toxic chemicals at a high temperature. Not to mention greenhouse gases like CO2 etc. Its not even close.
      - jjav 3y ago
        True, but the thread was about pollution from brakes and tire wear. Not talking about engines.
- pornel 3y ago
  "Much more" is misleading. The difference is usually 10%-20%, less than weight variance among gas cars. Tesla Model 3 weighs about the same as an ICE Ford Mustang. Tire particles are relatively heavy and don't stay in the air, unlike smaller molecules and emission from combustion. If weight was a real concern, non-business pickup trucks and large SUVs should be banned regardless of the engine they use.
bagels 3y ago
No way it happens by then. We might see at best half of new cars sold being electric, but there are still a lot of not-new cars in the fleet.
aurareturn 3y ago
>Can't wait for 51% tipping point for EV on the road, any chance by 2030? Depends on where you are. I'm in Shenzen right now and it's very close or at 50%. There are definitely more new electric cars than ICE cars on the road. For example, 90% of my Didi (China's Uber) rides have been electric cars. I believe all of the city's buses are electric as well. Some people drive motorbikes here and they're all electric. The difference in air quality between today and 6 years ago when I last visited is huge.
jeffbee 3y ago
EV share on US roads is only about 5% (by VMT, i.e. if you stand on the corner and count cars). The median age of cars on the road is ~13 years. Market share for EVs is about 8% of new sales. You do the math, but for me it doesn't look like anywhere near 50% in America by 2030 unless they literally outlaw oil.
SubiculumCode 3y ago
Are we at the 50 percentile for hybrids? I feel like we are at a point where we should require most new ICE vehicles to be hybrid. Going from 25 to 50+ mpg is a huge reduction in emissions, and easily achievable.
- adgjlsfhk1 3y ago
  yeah. I really don't understand this. if back in 2015 we'd gotten legislation requiring regenerative braking and 1 mile plug in range for new vehicles it would have a noticable effect on global emissions
- jjav 3y ago
  > Going from 25 to 50+ mpg is a huge reduction in emissions Something that depresses me is that a 1988 Honda CRX HF did 50MPG. Yes, 1988. Thirty-five years ago. That's with extremely primitive engine management. If society had continued improving that line of development, I bet we'd have 100MPG cars today. Instead, things went in a direction of extremely heavy cars which means much worse mileage.
troupo 3y ago
> Can't wait for 51% tipping point for EV on the road, any chance by 2030? Depends on the country. Also: not a chance for most of them. Main reasons: - EVs are significantly more expensive - There's no charging infrastructure to speak of in most countries
- dymk 3y ago
  > EVs are significantly more expensive The point of the article is how that's quickly going to no longer be the case > There's no charging infrastructure to speak of in most countries Solvable in single-digit numbers of years, even the US which is a sloth at building infra is doing fine scaling up its charging and distribution network
  - troupo 3y ago
    > Solvable in single-digit numbers of years, even the US which is a sloth at building infra is doing fine scaling up its charging and distribution network US is much faster than, say, Sweden. And "single digit years" brings us to 2030 at least if the pace picks up. I live in a Stockholm suburb [1]. In the past 4-5 years the number of charging stations remained at 20, and all the new construction in the vicinity has 0 parking spots fitted with chargers as developers claim it's too costly, and existing infrastructure doesn't permit it. [1] No, it's not a US suburb. It's a European suburb with high-rise/multi-story apartment buildings, and new construction also being mostly multi-story apartment buildings. Thinks this: https://www.google.com/maps/@59.2775628,17.8994667,3a,75y,209.86h,94.98t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1sNV4LXaEpvU8cGl_fp9BJng!2e0!7i16384!8i8192?entry=ttu https://www.google.com/maps/@59.2775628,17.8994667,3a,75y,20... and not the American cul de sacs Even the brand new districts like https://www.google.com/maps/@59.3066523,18.031298,3a,75y,152.57h,108.93t/data=!3m7!1e1!3m5!1sGHmtnVU5wKzF5J2Hm4RflQ!2e0!6shttps:%2F%2Fstreetviewpixels-pa.googleapis.com%2Fv1%2Fthumbnail%3Fpanoid%3DGHmtnVU5wKzF5J2Hm4RflQ%26cb_client%3Dmaps_sv.tactile.gps%26w%3D203%26h%3D100%26yaw%3D170.84366%26pitch%3D0%26thumbfov%3D100!7i16384!8i8192?entry=ttu https://www.google.com/maps/@59.3066523,18.031298,3a,75y,152... have essentially zero charging stations in their underground parking lots.

by ck2 3y ago

keep_reading 3y ago

We're mostly trading brake dust for tire particulates so we should keep that in mind but at least the tailpipe emission reduction helps a lot of other air quality issues

testfoobar 3y ago

EVs are much heavier than ICE vehicles. The extra weight leads to much greater wear on tires per mile of travel. This leads to a substantial increase in tire dust - a significant pollutant. https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2023/07/electric-vehicles-tires-wearing-out-particulates/674750/ https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2023/07/elect...

jemmyw 3y ago
It'd be good to see some numbers because that article is pretty vague on where the fault lies. A Tesla 3 is about the same weight as my Ford Mondeo, same shape car. The article points out that (a) Americans buy larger cars than are perhaps necessary and (b) it's the acceleration that causes an issue too. Nowhere is it saying how much worse the problem is. I would say this is a low quality article.
natch 3y ago
But not brake dust.
dymk 3y ago
This "point" gets parroted everywhere EVs come up, but the proof is basically nonexistant or misleading at best.
cantaloupe 3y ago
That’s not really supported by evidence. Among other points against, tire dust scales linearly with weight and EVs are only about 20% heavier then comparable ICEs (e.g. model 3 vs Camry). That’s not even accounting for regenerative braking. https://dynomight.net/tires/ https://dynomight.net/tires/
- jjav 3y ago
  > That’s not even accounting for regenerative braking. That has no relation to tire wear rubber dust. It's not controversial that a heavier car that accelerates faster will wear out tires much faster (thus generate more rubber particles into the air). Sure, EVs generate way less brake pad dust. But that's a tiny contribution to pollution. Brake pads are tiny compared to tires and in over 100K I've yet to wear out the brake pads on my ICE minivan but I've changed tires three times.
  - belltaco 3y ago
    10% to 20% more tire dust but none of the dozens of pollutants from burning toxic chemicals at a high temperature. Not to mention greenhouse gases like CO2 etc. Its not even close.
    - jjav 3y ago
      True, but the thread was about pollution from brakes and tire wear. Not talking about engines.
pornel 3y ago
"Much more" is misleading. The difference is usually 10%-20%, less than weight variance among gas cars. Tesla Model 3 weighs about the same as an ICE Ford Mustang. Tire particles are relatively heavy and don't stay in the air, unlike smaller molecules and emission from combustion. If weight was a real concern, non-business pickup trucks and large SUVs should be banned regardless of the engine they use.

bagels 3y ago

No way it happens by then. We might see at best half of new cars sold being electric, but there are still a lot of not-new cars in the fleet.

aurareturn 3y ago

>Can't wait for 51% tipping point for EV on the road, any chance by 2030? Depends on where you are. I'm in Shenzen right now and it's very close or at 50%. There are definitely more new electric cars than ICE cars on the road. For example, 90% of my Didi (China's Uber) rides have been electric cars. I believe all of the city's buses are electric as well. Some people drive motorbikes here and they're all electric. The difference in air quality between today and 6 years ago when I last visited is huge.

jeffbee 3y ago

EV share on US roads is only about 5% (by VMT, i.e. if you stand on the corner and count cars). The median age of cars on the road is ~13 years. Market share for EVs is about 8% of new sales. You do the math, but for me it doesn't look like anywhere near 50% in America by 2030 unless they literally outlaw oil.

SubiculumCode 3y ago

Are we at the 50 percentile for hybrids? I feel like we are at a point where we should require most new ICE vehicles to be hybrid. Going from 25 to 50+ mpg is a huge reduction in emissions, and easily achievable.

adgjlsfhk1 3y ago
yeah. I really don't understand this. if back in 2015 we'd gotten legislation requiring regenerative braking and 1 mile plug in range for new vehicles it would have a noticable effect on global emissions
jjav 3y ago
> Going from 25 to 50+ mpg is a huge reduction in emissions Something that depresses me is that a 1988 Honda CRX HF did 50MPG. Yes, 1988. Thirty-five years ago. That's with extremely primitive engine management. If society had continued improving that line of development, I bet we'd have 100MPG cars today. Instead, things went in a direction of extremely heavy cars which means much worse mileage.

troupo 3y ago

> Can't wait for 51% tipping point for EV on the road, any chance by 2030? Depends on the country. Also: not a chance for most of them. Main reasons: - EVs are significantly more expensive - There's no charging infrastructure to speak of in most countries

dymk 3y ago
> EVs are significantly more expensive The point of the article is how that's quickly going to no longer be the case > There's no charging infrastructure to speak of in most countries Solvable in single-digit numbers of years, even the US which is a sloth at building infra is doing fine scaling up its charging and distribution network
- troupo 3y ago
  > Solvable in single-digit numbers of years, even the US which is a sloth at building infra is doing fine scaling up its charging and distribution network US is much faster than, say, Sweden. And "single digit years" brings us to 2030 at least if the pace picks up. I live in a Stockholm suburb [1]. In the past 4-5 years the number of charging stations remained at 20, and all the new construction in the vicinity has 0 parking spots fitted with chargers as developers claim it's too costly, and existing infrastructure doesn't permit it. [1] No, it's not a US suburb. It's a European suburb with high-rise/multi-story apartment buildings, and new construction also being mostly multi-story apartment buildings. Thinks this: https://www.google.com/maps/@59.2775628,17.8994667,3a,75y,209.86h,94.98t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1sNV4LXaEpvU8cGl_fp9BJng!2e0!7i16384!8i8192?entry=ttu https://www.google.com/maps/@59.2775628,17.8994667,3a,75y,20... and not the American cul de sacs Even the brand new districts like https://www.google.com/maps/@59.3066523,18.031298,3a,75y,152.57h,108.93t/data=!3m7!1e1!3m5!1sGHmtnVU5wKzF5J2Hm4RflQ!2e0!6shttps:%2F%2Fstreetviewpixels-pa.googleapis.com%2Fv1%2Fthumbnail%3Fpanoid%3DGHmtnVU5wKzF5J2Hm4RflQ%26cb_client%3Dmaps_sv.tactile.gps%26w%3D203%26h%3D100%26yaw%3D170.84366%26pitch%3D0%26thumbfov%3D100!7i16384!8i8192?entry=ttu https://www.google.com/maps/@59.3066523,18.031298,3a,75y,152... have essentially zero charging stations in their underground parking lots.