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> The AI accurately predicted 70% of earthquakes a week in advance, with 14 forecasts coming true within 200 miles of their estimated locations and matching the

> The AI accurately predicted 70% of earthquakes a week in advance, with 14 forecasts coming true within 200 miles of their estimated locations and matching their anticipated magnitudes. However, it issued eight false warnings and missed one earthquake. How does this work out to 70%? It made 23 predictions, 14 were right and 9 were wrong. 14 of 23 is 60.8% I also wonder what counts as a success. If it predicts an earthquake and one occurs, but too weak to hurt anybody, does that count as success or a false warning? What do you do with earthquake warnings anyway, preposition yourself under a doorframe? I guess humanitarian organizations could use this to pre-stage emergency supplies, but if false warnings are common and true warnings don't seem actionable most people will probably ignore it.

ianburrell 3y ago
I had whole comment questioning the usefulness of week before prediction. But prediction like that would save thousands of lives in my area. It is enough to evacuate the unreinforced masonry buildings. It is enough to evacuate the areas of coast swept by tsunami. It would require plans to deal with evacuees. I still wonder about the accuracy, is it for specific time? It would also need to be reliable that worth evacuating thousands of people. Finally, how well does it work on different kinds of earthquakes?
- mcpackieh 3y ago
  If it technically predicts earthquakes but can't tell you which of the earthquakes will be strong enough to warrant evacuation, then will people heed the warning for the big one after they've had a few evacuation notices for imperceptible earthquakes? It's a "boy who cried wolf" problem. The vast majority of earthquakes are very weak, so predicting the time and area of earthquakes seems worthless if they can't accurately predict the magnitude as well, with very few false positives.

ianburrell 3y ago

I had whole comment questioning the usefulness of week before prediction. But prediction like that would save thousands of lives in my area. It is enough to evacuate the unreinforced masonry buildings. It is enough to evacuate the areas of coast swept by tsunami. It would require plans to deal with evacuees. I still wonder about the accuracy, is it for specific time? It would also need to be reliable that worth evacuating thousands of people. Finally, how well does it work on different kinds of earthquakes?

mcpackieh 3y ago
If it technically predicts earthquakes but can't tell you which of the earthquakes will be strong enough to warrant evacuation, then will people heed the warning for the big one after they've had a few evacuation notices for imperceptible earthquakes? It's a "boy who cried wolf" problem. The vast majority of earthquakes are very weak, so predicting the time and area of earthquakes seems worthless if they can't accurately predict the magnitude as well, with very few false positives.