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"The AI accurately predicted 70% of earthquakes a week in advance, with 14 forecasts coming true… However, it issued eight false warnings and missed one earthqu

• 0cf8612b2e1e 3y ago
  Everyone knows that AI gets at least three mulligans.
• jeffbee 3y ago
  "A week in advance" is overstating it. It forecast the week of the earthquake, counting a hit in a radius of 200 miles. That is probably exciting for the researchers, but of no current practical value.
• two_handfuls 3y ago
  My guess: There were 20 real earthquakes and the AI issued 14 warnings. 20*70/100 = 14. Of course the problem with that is that it’s always a balance between precision and recall (or specificity vs sensitivity). Here they show 70% recall which sounds good, but the precision is 14/(14+8)=64% which is decidedly less impressive. Those terms are defined in Wikipedia here: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Precision_and_recall https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Precision_and_recall
• spajus 3y ago
  70% of the time it works all the time