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Tbh using DOCSIS4.0 is probably a mistake and a dead end technology. Virgin Media in the UK said the cost of upgrading to 4.0 from their 3.1 network was only ha

Tbh using DOCSIS4.0 is probably a mistake and a dead end technology. Virgin Media in the UK said the cost of upgrading to 4.0 from their 3.1 network was only half that of actually laying full fibre to all their covered premises, so they are instead rolling out FTTH everywhere instead. 4.0 requires significant new physical network components deployed close to end users so it's not a cheap or easy upgrade. Plus it's unlikely there will be much more speed after 4.0 given it is using very sophisticated modulation techniques and using nearly the entire spectrum of the coax cable.

flashback2199 3y ago
That's interesting. I thought that, too, but recently I read that there's about another order of magnitude of bandwidth increase to squeeze out of coax yet. I didn't save the link though.
- martinald 3y ago
  Sorry, I meant relative to fibre. I'm sure there will be DOCSIS 4.1 getting another 20% out of the plant, and various other small incremental improvements. Whereas really there is no reason you couldn't have terabit-PON systems.
metaphor 3y ago
> Tbh using DOCSIS4.0 is probably a mistake and a dead end technology. Virgin Media in the UK said the cost of upgrading to 4.0 from their 3.1 network was only half that of actually laying full fibre to all their covered premises, so they are instead rolling out FTTH everywhere instead. Let's put this into proper perspective. The state of Texas alone is ~2.8x larger than the entire UK. Comcast FY22 Residential Broadband generated ~5x more revenue (spot FX; about the same circa end of CY22) and serves ~5x more customers [1; pp. 42-43] than all of Virgin Media O2 Fixed-Line over the same period [2; pp. 5-6]. To think what might make infra capex business sense for Virgin Media in the UK would be asymptotically transferable to Comcast in the US as a broadcast telecom with 6 decades of history and at the prevailing cost of capital strikes me as quite naive. [1] https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1166691/000116669123000010/cmcsa-20221231.htm https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1166691/000116669123... [2] https://news.virginmediao2.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/Virgin-Media-O2-Q4-FY-2022-Earnings-Release.pdf https://news.virginmediao2.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/...
- flashback2199 3y ago
  Average age of coax line in TX might be newer too, since the state has had a lot of new property development in recent decades. I have a feeling that quality of the existing coax might be a factor in how successful or costly speed upgrades can be, since we're now squeezing the last bit of bandwidth out of them. Cables that are out of spec but still mostly working at lower bandwidths are going to be a problem since higher bandwidth is more sensitive to the quality of the cable. Some lines will have to be replaced, which will increase costs.
  - lazide 3y ago
    The issue is rarely the cables - coax run in the last 50 years is essentially identical to coax run now. It had to be to support all those TV channels! Connectors do sometimes corrode, rodents do occasionally eat things, and they do need to upgrade some of their splitting/serving equipment though.
    - flashback2199 3y ago
      Yes exactly, to the last part, and by out of spec I meant because of wear and tear.
- martinald 3y ago
  I'm well aware that Texas is bigger than the UK; and I'm also aware that Comcast is far bigger than VM. I also said 'probably' a mistake, perhaps Comcast is right in doing this as maybe they have split the CMTSs aggressively and the cost of 4.0 is much lower for them than VM. The other issue that VM is facing is energy costs which are much higher in the UK than the US. Coax requires a lot more power than (XS)GPON; which is pretty much all passive and therefore cheap to run. Regardless, the long term future is going to be FTTH, not coax.
  - deleted 3y ago
    [deleted]
- IOT_Apprentice 3y ago

flashback2199 3y ago

That's interesting. I thought that, too, but recently I read that there's about another order of magnitude of bandwidth increase to squeeze out of coax yet. I didn't save the link though.

martinald 3y ago
Sorry, I meant relative to fibre. I'm sure there will be DOCSIS 4.1 getting another 20% out of the plant, and various other small incremental improvements. Whereas really there is no reason you couldn't have terabit-PON systems.

metaphor 3y ago

> Tbh using DOCSIS4.0 is probably a mistake and a dead end technology. Virgin Media in the UK said the cost of upgrading to 4.0 from their 3.1 network was only half that of actually laying full fibre to all their covered premises, so they are instead rolling out FTTH everywhere instead. Let's put this into proper perspective. The state of Texas alone is ~2.8x larger than the entire UK. Comcast FY22 Residential Broadband generated ~5x more revenue (spot FX; about the same circa end of CY22) and serves ~5x more customers [1; pp. 42-43] than all of Virgin Media O2 Fixed-Line over the same period [2; pp. 5-6]. To think what might make infra capex business sense for Virgin Media in the UK would be asymptotically transferable to Comcast in the US as a broadcast telecom with 6 decades of history and at the prevailing cost of capital strikes me as quite naive. [1] https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1166691/000116669123000010/cmcsa-20221231.htm https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1166691/000116669123... [2] https://news.virginmediao2.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/Virgin-Media-O2-Q4-FY-2022-Earnings-Release.pdf https://news.virginmediao2.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/...

flashback2199 3y ago
Average age of coax line in TX might be newer too, since the state has had a lot of new property development in recent decades. I have a feeling that quality of the existing coax might be a factor in how successful or costly speed upgrades can be, since we're now squeezing the last bit of bandwidth out of them. Cables that are out of spec but still mostly working at lower bandwidths are going to be a problem since higher bandwidth is more sensitive to the quality of the cable. Some lines will have to be replaced, which will increase costs.
- lazide 3y ago
  The issue is rarely the cables - coax run in the last 50 years is essentially identical to coax run now. It had to be to support all those TV channels! Connectors do sometimes corrode, rodents do occasionally eat things, and they do need to upgrade some of their splitting/serving equipment though.
  - flashback2199 3y ago
    Yes exactly, to the last part, and by out of spec I meant because of wear and tear.
martinald 3y ago
I'm well aware that Texas is bigger than the UK; and I'm also aware that Comcast is far bigger than VM. I also said 'probably' a mistake, perhaps Comcast is right in doing this as maybe they have split the CMTSs aggressively and the cost of 4.0 is much lower for them than VM. The other issue that VM is facing is energy costs which are much higher in the UK than the US. Coax requires a lot more power than (XS)GPON; which is pretty much all passive and therefore cheap to run. Regardless, the long term future is going to be FTTH, not coax.
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
IOT_Apprentice 3y ago