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Hi, Max from Nixtla here. We are surprised that this has gained so much attention and are excited about both the positive and critical responses. Some importan
by maxmc 3y ago
Hi,
Max from Nixtla here. We are surprised that this has gained so much attention and are excited about both the positive and critical responses.
Some important clarifications:
The primary goal of this first version of the paper is to present TimeGPT-1 and showcase our preliminary findings from a large-scale experiment, demonstrating that transfer learning at this scale is indeed possible in time series. As mentioned in the paper, we deeply believe that pre-trained models can represent a very cost-effective solution (in terms of computational resources) for many applications. Please also consider that this is a pre-print version. We are working on releasing a reproducible set of experiments on a subset of the data, so stay tuned!
All previous work of Nixtla has been open source and we believe TimeGPT could be a viable commercial product, offering forecasting and anomaly detection out of the box for practitioners. Some interesting details were omitted because they represent a competitive advantage that we hope to leverage in order to grow the company and keep providing better solutions and continuing to build our ecosystem.
As some others have mentioned in the thread, we are working to onboard as many people as possible into a free trial so that more independent practitioners can validate the accuracy for their particular use cases. You can read some initial impressions of the creators Prophet [1] and GluonTS [2] or listen to an early test by the people from H20 [3]. We hope to see some more independent benchmarcks soon.
[1] https://x.com/seanjtaylor/status/1694745912776749296?s=20 https://x.com/seanjtaylor/status/1694745912776749296?s=20
[2] https://www.linkedin.com/posts/tim-januschowski_foundational-timeseries-neurips-activity-7115277160948342784-rvQb?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop https://www.linkedin.com/posts/tim-januschowski_foundational...
[3] https://youtu.be/N0gyDVUFPlg?si=xH8oy5cjgLm-o_WD&t=457 https://youtu.be/N0gyDVUFPlg?si=xH8oy5cjgLm-o_WD&t=457