3 ms·

I've been using a phrase for several years, "profound ignorance". I might use "humble abductions." Thanks. We always end up back with cluster/cohort analysis,

• mjburgess 3y ago
  I think the first task in this sort of convo is to convince the audience (client) that we are necessarily profoundly ignorant. You cannot predict prices, you cannot predict interest rates, and so on --- its still always a little suprising to see the shock in their eyes. No, indeed, the thing you've been asked to do is an exercise in risk management -- there is no statistical reality to the predictions here; ignore them. So, i'd still say that opener is vital. I try to move on to ensemble scenario modelling prose-style by several experts, etc. then, eventually, i tell them about geometric brownian motion -- only when i'm convinced they're absolutey certain it's smoke-and-mirrors And that therefore they are aware that their job is primarily to manage risk, and a statistical model is only one minor (often blinding) tool in that box If you need a point estimate, so be it, but claw it from my cold dead fingers. Most of the world isnt knowable, sorry to disappoint. Now go actually manage your damn responsibilities