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I'm of the opinion that we're probably at the midpoint of what future historians will consider the preliminary period. The Non-Western axis has been turning up

by rcarr 3y ago

I'm of the opinion that we're probably at the midpoint of what future historians will consider the preliminary period. The Non-Western axis has been turning up the heat, there's been something like 8 or 9 coups in Africa since 2020 plus more coup attempts, there was the Myanmar coup in 2021 you've got troop build up along the Serbia-Kosovo border, you've got fighting again in Azerbaijan and Armenia, and now Israel and Hamas. I expect more and more of these coups and conflicts will arise in the coming year or two as the Non Western powers try to stretch Western military resources. The future historians will consider the true start to be whenever a NATO country is officially drawn into one of the fights, the same way the UK and France were drawn in to the conflict in WW2 after Poland was invaded.

Bjartr 3y ago
How does the rate of conflict in those places compare to the past few decades? I have no context to evaluate if 8 coups in Africa since 2020 is high relative to history.
- eindiran 3y ago
  Legitimate question, not trying to be snarky, is this not self-evident to you? The fighting in Donbass eventually leading to a hot war between Ukraine and Russia doesn't seem like a step up in the fighting? Israel dropping enough JDAMs into the Gaza strip to turn Khan Yunis into crunchy sand doesn't feel like things are getting worse? The political situation in the Black Sea feels like it has slowly but surely gotten more tense, the sites of the Yugoslav wars are heating up...
  - Bjartr 3y ago
    It is absolutely not self evident to me. I don't have high confidence that what the situation feels like based on the media that is readily available to me accurately reflects reality. Especially when it comes to international relations. There's always news about how the sky is falling. I honestly haven't followed the various conflicts around the world closely enough over the years to trust any gut evaluation I could make of the current situation vs, say, the conflicts in Syria, Afganistan, Iraq, and Yugoslavia, just to make a few, from the last few decades. These conflicts are terrible, but what that actually means to the international community on the order of years is non-trivial and far from self evident AFAICT

by rcarr 3y ago

Bjartr 3y ago

How does the rate of conflict in those places compare to the past few decades? I have no context to evaluate if 8 coups in Africa since 2020 is high relative to history.

eindiran 3y ago
Legitimate question, not trying to be snarky, is this not self-evident to you? The fighting in Donbass eventually leading to a hot war between Ukraine and Russia doesn't seem like a step up in the fighting? Israel dropping enough JDAMs into the Gaza strip to turn Khan Yunis into crunchy sand doesn't feel like things are getting worse? The political situation in the Black Sea feels like it has slowly but surely gotten more tense, the sites of the Yugoslav wars are heating up...
- Bjartr 3y ago
  It is absolutely not self evident to me. I don't have high confidence that what the situation feels like based on the media that is readily available to me accurately reflects reality. Especially when it comes to international relations. There's always news about how the sky is falling. I honestly haven't followed the various conflicts around the world closely enough over the years to trust any gut evaluation I could make of the current situation vs, say, the conflicts in Syria, Afganistan, Iraq, and Yugoslavia, just to make a few, from the last few decades. These conflicts are terrible, but what that actually means to the international community on the order of years is non-trivial and far from self evident AFAICT