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> (I mean, what was the theoretical upper limit on the benefit of cryptocurrency for the world? Probably not that much.) According to the crypto-faithful at th

by mjr00 3y ago

> (I mean, what was the theoretical upper limit on the benefit of cryptocurrency for the world? Probably not that much.) According to the crypto-faithful at the time: solving territorial disputes (Gaza Strip? blockchain solves this!), identity management, bank transfers, payments over the internet with no transaction fees, "the supply chain" (whatever that means), etc. Not as interesting to a layperson as AGI, but if all those (or ANY of those) ended up panning out, crypto would have been a multi-trillion dollar industry and fundamentally transformed vast swathes of modern society. I do think LLMs are far more useful than blockchain, but claiming "the potential value of this one is extraordinary" is exactly what people said in previous hype cycles.

yieldcrv 3y ago
> crypto would have been a multi-trillion dollar industry what metric would you like to use, specifically? double check that its a metric that matches other industries the market cap of the digital spot commodities? the marketcap of the businesses that use the digital spot commodities? the revenue of all participants and service providers? the volume of all shares and futures and spot trades when sliced down to a submetric that represents 'real' trades? all of the above? > and fundamentally transformed vast swathes of modern society thats ...a... goal post. I'm not sure if that's a goal post I would have, its market microstructure plumbing. At best, it modifies capital formation, letting different ventures get funding, which it already has. and then, what time frame? its a pretty good S-curve from 2009. there is a pretty clear chronology of what delays what, everything that has resulted in a seasonal bubble in crypto comes from a software proposal being ratified that allows it to touch another industry that it previously didn't. Many overlapping similarities to IETF proposals for WWW, but I understand this level of discussion might not reach your circles, the point stands that there are plenty of people in the tech space that had the exact same observation and you and chose to contribute to the proposals that make crypto now more accessible to the next group. There are plenty of proposals now in many different crypto communities, even ones to make ratification more egalitarian and collaborative. some turn out to be hits for adoption. I think it is interesting for people to then use that reality to say crypto hasnt fulfilled any lofty idea they overheard an enthusiast say, because it took too long. Prior proposals and their ratification were necessary for the reported market cap to reach $1bn, but I know I know “market cap!? you cant sell it all at once!” Holding crypto assets and industry to a separate higher standard than all other industries on the planet.
lawlessone 3y ago
> crypto would have been a multi-trillion dollar industry The same people saying this are often the same ones betting on sovereign currencies crashing.

by mjr00 3y ago

yieldcrv 3y ago

> crypto would have been a multi-trillion dollar industry what metric would you like to use, specifically? double check that its a metric that matches other industries the market cap of the digital spot commodities? the marketcap of the businesses that use the digital spot commodities? the revenue of all participants and service providers? the volume of all shares and futures and spot trades when sliced down to a submetric that represents 'real' trades? all of the above? > and fundamentally transformed vast swathes of modern society thats ...a... goal post. I'm not sure if that's a goal post I would have, its market microstructure plumbing. At best, it modifies capital formation, letting different ventures get funding, which it already has. and then, what time frame? its a pretty good S-curve from 2009. there is a pretty clear chronology of what delays what, everything that has resulted in a seasonal bubble in crypto comes from a software proposal being ratified that allows it to touch another industry that it previously didn't. Many overlapping similarities to IETF proposals for WWW, but I understand this level of discussion might not reach your circles, the point stands that there are plenty of people in the tech space that had the exact same observation and you and chose to contribute to the proposals that make crypto now more accessible to the next group. There are plenty of proposals now in many different crypto communities, even ones to make ratification more egalitarian and collaborative. some turn out to be hits for adoption. I think it is interesting for people to then use that reality to say crypto hasnt fulfilled any lofty idea they overheard an enthusiast say, because it took too long. Prior proposals and their ratification were necessary for the reported market cap to reach $1bn, but I know I know “market cap!? you cant sell it all at once!” Holding crypto assets and industry to a separate higher standard than all other industries on the planet.

lawlessone 3y ago

> crypto would have been a multi-trillion dollar industry The same people saying this are often the same ones betting on sovereign currencies crashing.