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Unfortunately for you, we all heard the same exact promises and grand claims from people pushing previous hype cycles, such as VR, AR, EVs, cryptocurrency, Web

Unfortunately for you, we all heard the same exact promises and grand claims from people pushing previous hype cycles, such as VR, AR, EVs, cryptocurrency, Web 3.0, etc. Some people are addicted to hype.

xnx 3y ago
They hype is definitely similar, but the situation is entirely different. You don't have to take anyone's hype/story about AI on faith. The future state is uncertain, but the current trajectory is clear and verifiable.
- kylebenzle 3y ago
  In early 2020 I was doing a data science boot camp and one project was feeding in a bunch of scientific paper titles in a given area, then "predicting" a "next" future title, the idea was I could come up with ideas for future projects. What we have now is exactly the same except with a MUCH bigger training set. I am using GPT4 everyday but still can't believe the nonsense hype around it. ALL of AI would be lucky to generate a few $million a year of actual income for people. At BEST these LLMs are great spell checkers and code template fetching assistants but thats as far as LLMs on their own will ever go. Microsoft Word and Google Docs will have a built in "AI" spell checker that will dissapera into the background, and google search might get SLIGHTLY more relavent but thats it. No "AI revolution" is coming. I'd love to be wrong but looking at the details its hard to understand where people think this future revenue will come from.
  - mechagodzilla 3y ago
    The availability of the auto-text-firehose of LLMs will almost certainly make google search worse as it just gets overwhelmed with spam.
    - cratermoon 3y ago
      With all these models trained on a corpus of texts from the Internet[1], what's going to happen in 5 years when the internet is full of text generated after January 2022, the current cutoff data for ChatGPT? As an increasing proportion of training data is either pre-2002 or LLM-generated confabulations, when will it all collapse in on itself? Do these companies have any plans for how they are going to get accurate and factual input after their output dominates? 1. Corpora: https://commoncrawl.org/ https://commoncrawl.org/, https://www.english-corpora.org/ https://www.english-corpora.org/
- cratermoon 3y ago
  > the current trajectory is clear and verifiable. 2016, Geoffrey Hinton, "People should stop training radiologists now. It’s just completely obvious that within five years deep learning is going to do better than radiologists." https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2HMPRXstSvQ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2HMPRXstSvQ
  - xnx 3y ago
    Good example of the "peak of inflated expectations" from the hype cycle for emerging tech. Whereas crypto and Web 3.0 haven't broadly taken off (and would bet never will), AI is more likely going through a short and shallow "trough of disillusionment" before long steady gains.
    - cratermoon 3y ago
      > short and shallow "trough of disillusionment" How many troughs is that now for 'AI'? Three? Four?
kridsdale3 3y ago
Actual profit generation is the metric by which hype-fads should be judged. VR, AR, EVs (not sure about this one), crypto-mining if you are not just early in the pyramid, etc, have not generated profit yet. CRUD web apps have generated a LOT of profit.

xnx 3y ago

They hype is definitely similar, but the situation is entirely different. You don't have to take anyone's hype/story about AI on faith. The future state is uncertain, but the current trajectory is clear and verifiable.

kylebenzle 3y ago
In early 2020 I was doing a data science boot camp and one project was feeding in a bunch of scientific paper titles in a given area, then "predicting" a "next" future title, the idea was I could come up with ideas for future projects. What we have now is exactly the same except with a MUCH bigger training set. I am using GPT4 everyday but still can't believe the nonsense hype around it. ALL of AI would be lucky to generate a few $million a year of actual income for people. At BEST these LLMs are great spell checkers and code template fetching assistants but thats as far as LLMs on their own will ever go. Microsoft Word and Google Docs will have a built in "AI" spell checker that will dissapera into the background, and google search might get SLIGHTLY more relavent but thats it. No "AI revolution" is coming. I'd love to be wrong but looking at the details its hard to understand where people think this future revenue will come from.
- mechagodzilla 3y ago
  The availability of the auto-text-firehose of LLMs will almost certainly make google search worse as it just gets overwhelmed with spam.
  - cratermoon 3y ago
    With all these models trained on a corpus of texts from the Internet[1], what's going to happen in 5 years when the internet is full of text generated after January 2022, the current cutoff data for ChatGPT? As an increasing proportion of training data is either pre-2002 or LLM-generated confabulations, when will it all collapse in on itself? Do these companies have any plans for how they are going to get accurate and factual input after their output dominates? 1. Corpora: https://commoncrawl.org/ https://commoncrawl.org/, https://www.english-corpora.org/ https://www.english-corpora.org/
cratermoon 3y ago
> the current trajectory is clear and verifiable. 2016, Geoffrey Hinton, "People should stop training radiologists now. It’s just completely obvious that within five years deep learning is going to do better than radiologists." https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2HMPRXstSvQ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2HMPRXstSvQ
- xnx 3y ago
  Good example of the "peak of inflated expectations" from the hype cycle for emerging tech. Whereas crypto and Web 3.0 haven't broadly taken off (and would bet never will), AI is more likely going through a short and shallow "trough of disillusionment" before long steady gains.
  - cratermoon 3y ago
    > short and shallow "trough of disillusionment" How many troughs is that now for 'AI'? Three? Four?

kridsdale3 3y ago

Actual profit generation is the metric by which hype-fads should be judged. VR, AR, EVs (not sure about this one), crypto-mining if you are not just early in the pyramid, etc, have not generated profit yet. CRUD web apps have generated a LOT of profit.