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> "Batteries go bad over a rather short period of time" Not really. They do gradually lose capacity over a long time, but it's a slow process. The US Governm
by elihu 3y ago
> "Batteries go bad over a rather short period of time"
Not really. They do gradually lose capacity over a long time, but it's a slow process. The US Government requires EV batteries to have an 8 year / 100,000 mile warranty, and California requires 10 years and 150,000 miles. I expect most batteries will significantly exceed that.
LFP batteries generally have about 3x the longevity of other lithium ion types.
There are some examples of early battery failures, like the Nissan Leaf didn't use liquid cooling; now basically everyone else learned from their example and does it. Chevy Bolts had a battery recall due to bad manufacturing. Basically, if a battery fails early someone somewhere screwed up. Most EV batteries are fine and will continue to be fine for a very long time.
>> "I’m not convinced it ever will be, especially if it’s continued to be made by exotic materials."
Resource constraints are an issue, but there are workarounds. Nickel and cobalt can be avoided simply by using LFP cells. Permanent magnet motors are more efficient than induction, but the permanent magnets don't need to be based on rare-earth elements -- it's just that the non-rare-earth-magnet version would be less powerful and/or bulkier. Similarly you could wind the motors with aluminum instead of copper, and the motor would be less powerful and/or bulkier. But that's fine -- electric motors are already quite a bit smaller and more powerful than they need to be anyways.
Lithium is probably the hardest-to-get-around resource constraint with current technology, but lithium production is ramping up.
Also worth noting that the need for large batteries would be substantially reduced if were to invest heavily into charging infrastructure and even the electrification of roads so that cars don't even need to stop. (There are some projects in Sweden and Germany along those lines.)
- tooltalk 3y agoAccording to Recurrent's recent report, most EVs lose only about 10% of SOH (or battery capacity/range) after 100,000 miles. >> LFP batteries generally have about 3x the longevity of other lithium ion types << This is not true at all. All LFPs in EVs degrade much faster than other lithium ion batteries: Tesla LFP Battery 10% RANGE LOSS PROBLEM? | Model 3 RWD (Cleanwatt citing Tessie's data) The brand new LFP batteries will degrade substantially quicker. There's not long-term retention data for LFP batteries on the market yet, but the trend tends to be substantially faster degradation. Trends show them stabilizing around that 10% degradation mark in about half the time as non-LFP batteries - around 50,000 miles instead of 100,000 miles." Even in ideal environment, such as ESS, LFPs would degrade substantially faster under high SOC/high c-rates (eg, EV).
- elihu 3y agoLFPs lose some of their capacity early on, but then the degradation is much slower. It's just a weird quirk, it doesn't mean they're going to fail quickly.
- tooltalk 3y ago>> LFPs lose some of their capacity early on, but then the degradation is much slower. ... << There is nothing weird about lithium ion batteries, including LFPs, degrading quickly under high SOC/high C-rates -- ie, EVs. We don't know anything about LFP's longevity in EV profil, and, while there is no long-term data on LFP's true lifespan in EVs, it's been demonstrated that LFP could lose as much as 1/3 of its lifespan under 100% SOC in ESS profile. LFP's are already mostly limited to entry-level, low-range EVs due to its other technical short-coming in moving vehicles (ie, low energy density and weight). This quick degradation makes LFP even less appealing in vehicles.