3 ms·

Batteries go bad over a rather short period of time and are incredibly expensive too. They’re basically currently infeasible as a mode of transport without _a l

Batteries go bad over a rather short period of time and are incredibly expensive too. They’re basically currently infeasible as a mode of transport without _a lot_ of trade offs. Compare that to a tank for fuel, which is comparatively minuscule in cost and basically never goes bad. I don’t think electrical is as scalable as liquid fuel and I’m not convinced it ever will be, especially if it’s continued to be made by exotic materials.

elsonrodriguez 3y ago
Liquid fuel is inherently unscalable, it is a finite resource.
vel0city 3y ago
Gas, especially gas with ethanol in it, absolutely goes bad unless stored very well. It'll oxidize, absorb water, and evaporate within months. There's a lot of reasons why people "winterize" their lawn equipment; gas going bad is one big part.
robertjpayne 3y ago
Fuel definitely goes bad, at least once the storage is in vehicles. The petroleum industry keeps peddling all this FUD about how awful batteries are. The difference is batteries can be improved (and there's a tooooon of $$$$ pouring into this problem) and they are improving. Petroleum is a dead end while batteries, solar, and electrical grids have a bright future and lost of room for growth.
theshrike79 3y ago
How long is a "rather short period of time"? There are decade old EV batteries still in use and over 80% SOH. And fuel definitely goes bad. It doesn't work like in the movies where you can just find a 30 year old car in the desert and grab more fuel for your awesome roadwarrior vehicle. You can use additives to make it last longer and store better, but still. As for "exotic materials" we're figuring out new battery chemistries at a record pace. Some are better for vehicles, that need a good kWh/kg ratio. Others are better for grid storage where kWh/€ is a more relevant measurement.
- elihu 3y ago
  I think the point the post you're replying to was making is that the gas tank itself doesn't usually go bad. It's true you can't just let gas sit in a tank forever, but with EVs it's also true that you can't usually just leave a battery to sit unused for years; eventually, it'll self-discharge below a threshold where it becomes permanently damaged. I do agree that battery "problems" are exaggerated -- most will last a very long time, and batteries that don't use cobalt and nickel are available now. Sodium-ion might be relatively common in a few years for low-end applications.
elihu 3y ago
> "Batteries go bad over a rather short period of time" Not really. They do gradually lose capacity over a long time, but it's a slow process. The US Government requires EV batteries to have an 8 year / 100,000 mile warranty, and California requires 10 years and 150,000 miles. I expect most batteries will significantly exceed that. LFP batteries generally have about 3x the longevity of other lithium ion types. There are some examples of early battery failures, like the Nissan Leaf didn't use liquid cooling; now basically everyone else learned from their example and does it. Chevy Bolts had a battery recall due to bad manufacturing. Basically, if a battery fails early someone somewhere screwed up. Most EV batteries are fine and will continue to be fine for a very long time. >> "I’m not convinced it ever will be, especially if it’s continued to be made by exotic materials." Resource constraints are an issue, but there are workarounds. Nickel and cobalt can be avoided simply by using LFP cells. Permanent magnet motors are more efficient than induction, but the permanent magnets don't need to be based on rare-earth elements -- it's just that the non-rare-earth-magnet version would be less powerful and/or bulkier. Similarly you could wind the motors with aluminum instead of copper, and the motor would be less powerful and/or bulkier. But that's fine -- electric motors are already quite a bit smaller and more powerful than they need to be anyways. Lithium is probably the hardest-to-get-around resource constraint with current technology, but lithium production is ramping up. Also worth noting that the need for large batteries would be substantially reduced if were to invest heavily into charging infrastructure and even the electrification of roads so that cars don't even need to stop. (There are some projects in Sweden and Germany along those lines.)
- tooltalk 3y ago
  According to Recurrent's recent report, most EVs lose only about 10% of SOH (or battery capacity/range) after 100,000 miles. >> LFP batteries generally have about 3x the longevity of other lithium ion types << This is not true at all. All LFPs in EVs degrade much faster than other lithium ion batteries: Tesla LFP Battery 10% RANGE LOSS PROBLEM? | Model 3 RWD (Cleanwatt citing Tessie's data) The brand new LFP batteries will degrade substantially quicker. There's not long-term retention data for LFP batteries on the market yet, but the trend tends to be substantially faster degradation. Trends show them stabilizing around that 10% degradation mark in about half the time as non-LFP batteries - around 50,000 miles instead of 100,000 miles." Even in ideal environment, such as ESS, LFPs would degrade substantially faster under high SOC/high c-rates (eg, EV).

elsonrodriguez 3y ago

Liquid fuel is inherently unscalable, it is a finite resource.

vel0city 3y ago

Gas, especially gas with ethanol in it, absolutely goes bad unless stored very well. It'll oxidize, absorb water, and evaporate within months. There's a lot of reasons why people "winterize" their lawn equipment; gas going bad is one big part.

robertjpayne 3y ago

Fuel definitely goes bad, at least once the storage is in vehicles. The petroleum industry keeps peddling all this FUD about how awful batteries are. The difference is batteries can be improved (and there's a tooooon of $$$$ pouring into this problem) and they are improving. Petroleum is a dead end while batteries, solar, and electrical grids have a bright future and lost of room for growth.

theshrike79 3y ago

How long is a "rather short period of time"? There are decade old EV batteries still in use and over 80% SOH. And fuel definitely goes bad. It doesn't work like in the movies where you can just find a 30 year old car in the desert and grab more fuel for your awesome roadwarrior vehicle. You can use additives to make it last longer and store better, but still. As for "exotic materials" we're figuring out new battery chemistries at a record pace. Some are better for vehicles, that need a good kWh/kg ratio. Others are better for grid storage where kWh/€ is a more relevant measurement.

elihu 3y ago
I think the point the post you're replying to was making is that the gas tank itself doesn't usually go bad. It's true you can't just let gas sit in a tank forever, but with EVs it's also true that you can't usually just leave a battery to sit unused for years; eventually, it'll self-discharge below a threshold where it becomes permanently damaged. I do agree that battery "problems" are exaggerated -- most will last a very long time, and batteries that don't use cobalt and nickel are available now. Sodium-ion might be relatively common in a few years for low-end applications.

elihu 3y ago

> "Batteries go bad over a rather short period of time" Not really. They do gradually lose capacity over a long time, but it's a slow process. The US Government requires EV batteries to have an 8 year / 100,000 mile warranty, and California requires 10 years and 150,000 miles. I expect most batteries will significantly exceed that. LFP batteries generally have about 3x the longevity of other lithium ion types. There are some examples of early battery failures, like the Nissan Leaf didn't use liquid cooling; now basically everyone else learned from their example and does it. Chevy Bolts had a battery recall due to bad manufacturing. Basically, if a battery fails early someone somewhere screwed up. Most EV batteries are fine and will continue to be fine for a very long time. >> "I’m not convinced it ever will be, especially if it’s continued to be made by exotic materials." Resource constraints are an issue, but there are workarounds. Nickel and cobalt can be avoided simply by using LFP cells. Permanent magnet motors are more efficient than induction, but the permanent magnets don't need to be based on rare-earth elements -- it's just that the non-rare-earth-magnet version would be less powerful and/or bulkier. Similarly you could wind the motors with aluminum instead of copper, and the motor would be less powerful and/or bulkier. But that's fine -- electric motors are already quite a bit smaller and more powerful than they need to be anyways. Lithium is probably the hardest-to-get-around resource constraint with current technology, but lithium production is ramping up. Also worth noting that the need for large batteries would be substantially reduced if were to invest heavily into charging infrastructure and even the electrification of roads so that cars don't even need to stop. (There are some projects in Sweden and Germany along those lines.)

tooltalk 3y ago
According to Recurrent's recent report, most EVs lose only about 10% of SOH (or battery capacity/range) after 100,000 miles. >> LFP batteries generally have about 3x the longevity of other lithium ion types << This is not true at all. All LFPs in EVs degrade much faster than other lithium ion batteries: Tesla LFP Battery 10% RANGE LOSS PROBLEM? | Model 3 RWD (Cleanwatt citing Tessie's data) The brand new LFP batteries will degrade substantially quicker. There's not long-term retention data for LFP batteries on the market yet, but the trend tends to be substantially faster degradation. Trends show them stabilizing around that 10% degradation mark in about half the time as non-LFP batteries - around 50,000 miles instead of 100,000 miles." Even in ideal environment, such as ESS, LFPs would degrade substantially faster under high SOC/high c-rates (eg, EV).