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I'm not so sure that BEVs will reach anything close to 100% of all cars on the road. My primary reason is this: as long as you "only" have 10%, 20%, even 30% BE

I'm not so sure that BEVs will reach anything close to 100% of all cars on the road. My primary reason is this: as long as you "only" have 10%, 20%, even 30% BEVs the electric charging infrastructure is mostly free, we already have it. But after that, BEVs will require expensive infrastructure to be built in the electricity transmission grid. Think "we need to dig up all of the roads". Because it's not just cars going electric, it's everything else as well at the same time. At that point hydrogen cars could very well see a resurgence. Especially in places with cold weather, where the fuel cell waste heat can be used for the climate control, while the BEV needs to spend energy running a heat pump, so the efficiency advantage of BEVs is mostly gone.

jacquesm 3y ago
Yes, that's a good point. But: the grid can be expanded and probably will be expanded. I don't have a BEV but I've run the numbers and it would work very well for me today, it's just that I have an old, non-connected and fairly recently rebuilt car that I'll drive into the ground. But if I were younger and still in the market for a new vehicle I would definitely consider an electric one, though I'd make sure it had LiFePO4 or maybe even LTO in it (not yet available). Battery tech is getting better rapidly now that sufficient funds is pumped into it and I would expect the next two generations to be major improvements over what's on the market today.
- robertjpayne 3y ago
  This 100%, we're not done with batteries yet as a society and it's probably one of the most heavily funded industries because the opportunity to strike "gold" with good battery tech is too large to ignore. Lithium wont be used forever and and downsides to batteries will slowly be eroded until we wonder why we ever used petrol in the first place. As far as the grid goes, in my eyes rooftop solar is going to provide a huge amount of the power generation required for EVs. We're not there yet but the price of solar keeps dropping rapidly and you'll see a shift in messaging from "discounts and charge overnight when demand is low" to "discounts and charge during the day because generation is high".
  - jacquesm 3y ago
    I could already supply an EV with all the power required for my trips inside the country. 7700 KWh surplus from solar this year and we're not done yet. That's a multiple of what an EV would use for my current mileage (which is a fraction of what it was pre-COVID, and to be fair I also use my (e-)bikes a lot more than before).
beachy 3y ago
The counter to your "think of the grid" argument is that the fossil fuel network may start to atrophy once there are significantly less people fuelling their gas vehicles. If filling your gas car involves an unplesant trip to a peeling, cracking and unreliable gas station, then that's one more incentive to go BEV.
deleted 3y ago
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pornel 3y ago
No, this has been debunked over and over. People imagine BEVs need to be charged every evening at some super high power. The reality is they need to be charged about once a week (median US commute is 1/10th of typical BEVs range at city speeds), and can charge overnight, or when parked at work, while using less electricity than your air conditioning unit. The grid is designed to handle peak demand (see the "duck curve"), and there is a lot of spare capacity outside of the peak hours, especially at noon when there's more solar production than consumption. BEVs are very flexible with their charging time, and scheduling charging in off-peak hours is a standard feature.
- tekknik 3y ago
  > People imagine BEVs need to be charged every evening at some super high power. The reality is they need to be charged about once a week Wouldn’t you say this is based on usage? Or do EVs run for a week regardless of distance traveled?
  - pornel 3y ago
    EV energy use is mostly proportional to distance traveled, except they're more efficient at lower speeds (typical values are 4-5miles per kWh in city traffic, and 2.4-3.5mi/kWh at highway speeds). I've noted it's based on median commute, which is around 35-40 miles a day (median means that half people travel less than this, half of people travel more). WLTP range of Telsa Model 3 is 370 miles. There will obviously be some users who need to charge often, but my point is that it's closer to once a week for at least half of the US population. And I'm using US stats, because the country is particularly car-centric, so if the US can do it, rest of the world can manage too.
    - tekknik 3y ago
      Ah so it is variable. Ok glad that’s clear. I also only fill my gas vehicle once a week. Sitting at a pump (charging station) for 30 mins a week is still too long. Not every person will be able to have a charger at home (think apartments, condos, hotels, homeless, etc)

jacquesm 3y ago

Yes, that's a good point. But: the grid can be expanded and probably will be expanded. I don't have a BEV but I've run the numbers and it would work very well for me today, it's just that I have an old, non-connected and fairly recently rebuilt car that I'll drive into the ground. But if I were younger and still in the market for a new vehicle I would definitely consider an electric one, though I'd make sure it had LiFePO4 or maybe even LTO in it (not yet available). Battery tech is getting better rapidly now that sufficient funds is pumped into it and I would expect the next two generations to be major improvements over what's on the market today.

robertjpayne 3y ago
This 100%, we're not done with batteries yet as a society and it's probably one of the most heavily funded industries because the opportunity to strike "gold" with good battery tech is too large to ignore. Lithium wont be used forever and and downsides to batteries will slowly be eroded until we wonder why we ever used petrol in the first place. As far as the grid goes, in my eyes rooftop solar is going to provide a huge amount of the power generation required for EVs. We're not there yet but the price of solar keeps dropping rapidly and you'll see a shift in messaging from "discounts and charge overnight when demand is low" to "discounts and charge during the day because generation is high".
- jacquesm 3y ago
  I could already supply an EV with all the power required for my trips inside the country. 7700 KWh surplus from solar this year and we're not done yet. That's a multiple of what an EV would use for my current mileage (which is a fraction of what it was pre-COVID, and to be fair I also use my (e-)bikes a lot more than before).

beachy 3y ago

The counter to your "think of the grid" argument is that the fossil fuel network may start to atrophy once there are significantly less people fuelling their gas vehicles. If filling your gas car involves an unplesant trip to a peeling, cracking and unreliable gas station, then that's one more incentive to go BEV.

deleted 3y ago

[deleted]

pornel 3y ago

No, this has been debunked over and over. People imagine BEVs need to be charged every evening at some super high power. The reality is they need to be charged about once a week (median US commute is 1/10th of typical BEVs range at city speeds), and can charge overnight, or when parked at work, while using less electricity than your air conditioning unit. The grid is designed to handle peak demand (see the "duck curve"), and there is a lot of spare capacity outside of the peak hours, especially at noon when there's more solar production than consumption. BEVs are very flexible with their charging time, and scheduling charging in off-peak hours is a standard feature.

tekknik 3y ago
> People imagine BEVs need to be charged every evening at some super high power. The reality is they need to be charged about once a week Wouldn’t you say this is based on usage? Or do EVs run for a week regardless of distance traveled?
- pornel 3y ago
  EV energy use is mostly proportional to distance traveled, except they're more efficient at lower speeds (typical values are 4-5miles per kWh in city traffic, and 2.4-3.5mi/kWh at highway speeds). I've noted it's based on median commute, which is around 35-40 miles a day (median means that half people travel less than this, half of people travel more). WLTP range of Telsa Model 3 is 370 miles. There will obviously be some users who need to charge often, but my point is that it's closer to once a week for at least half of the US population. And I'm using US stats, because the country is particularly car-centric, so if the US can do it, rest of the world can manage too.
  - tekknik 3y ago
    Ah so it is variable. Ok glad that’s clear. I also only fill my gas vehicle once a week. Sitting at a pump (charging station) for 30 mins a week is still too long. Not every person will be able to have a charger at home (think apartments, condos, hotels, homeless, etc)