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Electrification for millions and millions of cars will never work, we don't have the "green" energy resources to actually produce that electricity, and second,

Electrification for millions and millions of cars will never work, we don't have the "green" energy resources to actually produce that electricity, and second, and just as important, we don't have the distribution network that will be able to carry that extra power (both in the US and in Europe). So that leaves us with the logical conclusion that we won't have millions and millions personal cars going forward, for better or for worse.

reducesuffering 3y ago
> Electrification for millions and millions of cars will never work 26+ million BEV already running in the world... Like 2 million driving around the US. https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2023/trends-in-electric-light-duty-vehicles https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2023/trends-in...
- nomel 3y ago
  Less that 1% of the cars in the US are electric [1]. The majority of those are powered by natural gas, at night [2]. With 5% in CA, we already have "do not charge" notifications on hot days, here in California. What does 100% look like in California (definitely unrealistic, but can be scaled)? California uses 13 billion gallons of gasoline, per year [3]. Let's say electric is 50% more efficient than gas, so we'll need 6.5 billion gallons worth of energy. At 33.7 kWh of per gallon of gas, that's 219 TWh of energy per year. In 2020, California produced 277 TWh [4]. They'll need to nearly double energy production, which matches most developed countries in Europe. [1] https://www.jdpower.com/cars/shopping-guides/what-percent-of-us-car-sales-are-electric https://www.jdpower.com/cars/shopping-guides/what-percent-of... [2] https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=46236#:~:text=Both%20demand%20for%20electricity%20and,evening%20as%20the%20sun%20sets https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=46236#:~:tex.... [3] https://www.energy.ca.gov/data-reports/energy-almanac/transportation-energy/california-gasoline-data-facts-and-statistics https://www.energy.ca.gov/data-reports/energy-almanac/transp... [4] https://www.energy.ca.gov/data-reports/energy-almanac/california-electricity-data/2021-total-system-electric-generation https://www.energy.ca.gov/data-reports/energy-almanac/califo...
  - reducesuffering 3y ago
    > What does 100% look like in California It looks like 30 years of infrastructure upgrades, as ICE cars are still sold by 2035 and will last like 20 years. It looks like 1TW of solar going to be deployed annually[0] CA has a lot of solar potential, and market incentives will cause people to charge many of their cars during the day, acting as excess batteries for the grid. [0]https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2022/05/16/a-fate-realized-1-tw-of-solar-to-be-deployed-annually-by-2030/ https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2022/05/16/a-fate-realized-1-tw-... https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2023/09/13/a-terawatt-of-solar-module-capacity-expected-within-16-months/ https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2023/09/13/a-terawatt-of-solar-m... https://twitter.com/patrickc/status/1698496805162353029 https://twitter.com/patrickc/status/1698496805162353029
rootusrootus 3y ago
> we don't have the distribution network that will be able to carry that extra power I think people overestimate the net change in consumption. Making a gallon of gasoline takes about as much electricity as moving a BEV the distance the ICEV would go on that gallon. What'll change a bit is the distribution of the energy. But given that much of it will happen at night when the grid has historically been very underutilized, the net impact isn't a huge problem to deal with.
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]

reducesuffering 3y ago

> Electrification for millions and millions of cars will never work 26+ million BEV already running in the world... Like 2 million driving around the US. https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2023/trends-in-electric-light-duty-vehicles https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2023/trends-in...

nomel 3y ago
Less that 1% of the cars in the US are electric [1]. The majority of those are powered by natural gas, at night [2]. With 5% in CA, we already have "do not charge" notifications on hot days, here in California. What does 100% look like in California (definitely unrealistic, but can be scaled)? California uses 13 billion gallons of gasoline, per year [3]. Let's say electric is 50% more efficient than gas, so we'll need 6.5 billion gallons worth of energy. At 33.7 kWh of per gallon of gas, that's 219 TWh of energy per year. In 2020, California produced 277 TWh [4]. They'll need to nearly double energy production, which matches most developed countries in Europe. [1] https://www.jdpower.com/cars/shopping-guides/what-percent-of-us-car-sales-are-electric https://www.jdpower.com/cars/shopping-guides/what-percent-of... [2] https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=46236#:~:text=Both%20demand%20for%20electricity%20and,evening%20as%20the%20sun%20sets https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=46236#:~:tex.... [3] https://www.energy.ca.gov/data-reports/energy-almanac/transportation-energy/california-gasoline-data-facts-and-statistics https://www.energy.ca.gov/data-reports/energy-almanac/transp... [4] https://www.energy.ca.gov/data-reports/energy-almanac/california-electricity-data/2021-total-system-electric-generation https://www.energy.ca.gov/data-reports/energy-almanac/califo...
- reducesuffering 3y ago
  > What does 100% look like in California It looks like 30 years of infrastructure upgrades, as ICE cars are still sold by 2035 and will last like 20 years. It looks like 1TW of solar going to be deployed annually[0] CA has a lot of solar potential, and market incentives will cause people to charge many of their cars during the day, acting as excess batteries for the grid. [0]https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2022/05/16/a-fate-realized-1-tw-of-solar-to-be-deployed-annually-by-2030/ https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2022/05/16/a-fate-realized-1-tw-... https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2023/09/13/a-terawatt-of-solar-module-capacity-expected-within-16-months/ https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2023/09/13/a-terawatt-of-solar-m... https://twitter.com/patrickc/status/1698496805162353029 https://twitter.com/patrickc/status/1698496805162353029

rootusrootus 3y ago

> we don't have the distribution network that will be able to carry that extra power I think people overestimate the net change in consumption. Making a gallon of gasoline takes about as much electricity as moving a BEV the distance the ICEV would go on that gallon. What'll change a bit is the distribution of the energy. But given that much of it will happen at night when the grid has historically been very underutilized, the net impact isn't a huge problem to deal with.

deleted 3y ago
[deleted]