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Hersh's narrative has been thoroughly debunked: https://oalexanderdk.substack.com/p/blowing-holes-in-seymour-hershs-pipe https://oalexanderdk.substack.com/p/bl

Hersh's narrative has been thoroughly debunked: https://oalexanderdk.substack.com/p/blowing-holes-in-seymour-hershs-pipe https://oalexanderdk.substack.com/p/blowing-holes-in-seymour... Russia benefits from infighting among the allies of Ukraine. That gives them a pretty big incentive.

swader999 3y ago
Wouldn't they have had more options and leverage had they just turned it off or refuse to supply it? What does sabotaging it do that gives Russia any more advantage?
- stickfigure 3y ago
  If they can blame the US, it drives a wedge between the US and the gas consumers (Europe). The pipe wasn't in use and wasn't likely to be used anytime soon, if ever. Russia only wins if Ukraine's allies give up. I can see Putin willing to trade a useless pipeline for a chance at dismembering the alliance. The only other option that makes sense is Ukraine doing it. But it seems a high-risk strategy for low reward; at least publicly, there was no indication that Germany et al were begging Russia to turn the gas back on.
  - swader999 3y ago
    I've heard a theory that USA did it to get Germany to fully commit to supporting the war, didn't want Russia to have leverage, wanted Germany dependant on USA for gas. Then there's the comment from Biden that foreshadowed it. I'm not convinced on any theory personally though.
somenameforme 3y ago
Kind of like how the narrative that Iraq does NOT have WMDs was also thoroughly debunked? [1] [2] As I'm sure you're aware, we remain in a state of information warfare. As a result of this, what you read in the media is borderline worthless. In this story it's impossible to know the truth, let alone debunk it, as next to nothing is truly falsifiable by you. All you can really do is rely on your own logic, and try to remove as much bias as possible. In this case Russia spent billions of dollars constructing that pipeline, over more than a decade, overcoming countless hurdles to do so. And the whole time this was going on the US was constantly trying to interfere with its development, at times arbitrarily threatening Germany and Swiss companies with possible sanctions over it. Then Biden publicly and literally said, "If Russia invades, that means tanks or troops crossing the border of Ukraine again, then there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2. We will bring an end to it." The idea that Russia blew it up for basically any reason, let alone some hand-wavey notion that 'it might cause infighting' is really just not logical. Since Germany has tried to ween themselves off Russian gas, their economy has somewhat predictably began to suffer. Once the backbone of the EU, Germany has since collapsed into recession, inflation has been skyrocketing (20% on foodstuffs), and so on. Russia could have predicted most of these outcomes if Germany refused to take the gas, and expected to have tremendous leverage. At the minimum driving infighting as Germany pragmatists fight with US interests. [1] - https://www.nytimes.com/2003/02/06/opinion/irrefutable-and-undeniable.html https://www.nytimes.com/2003/02/06/opinion/irrefutable-and-u... [2] - https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/opinions/2003/02/06/irrefutable/e598b1be-a78a-4a42-8e1a-c336f7a217f4/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/opinions/2003/02/06/i...
- stickfigure 3y ago
  It's quite obvious from US military behavior during and after the invasion that the folks in charge genuinely believed Iraq had WMDs. Colin Powell was genuine, if misinformed. If that narrative was an information operation, it was an Iraqi information operation, and it backfired horribly. The pipeline wasn't in use and there wasn't any indication that it would come into use anytime in the future. Germany already said - with Biden - that Nord Stream 2 was over. There was no real-world incentive for the US (or Ukraine, for that matter) to blow it up. But it sure is pretty good fuel for people who already think the US is the Great Satan.
  - somenameforme 3y ago
    I'd encourage you to look at the findings of the "evidence" for the Iraq War. Not only was it overtly fabricated, it was just lazy and sloppy. Our high level informant in Saddam's government with first-hand knowledge of what was happening, was actually a taxi driver and thief with 0 knowledge of anything [1]. The mobile weapon's laboratories were completely standard run-of-the-mill weather balloon refilling stations. [2] The rock solid proof of Iraq trying to purchase 'yellowcake uranium', were poorly made forgeries. [3] Literally all of the "Irrefutable and Undeniable" evidence was fake and fabricated. Nord Stream had just finished completion in September 2021. The US was able to 'convince' Scholtz to defer certification of it, but it was an untenable position. Rejecting Russian gas would entail Germany doing what it was ultimately compelled to do - tanking its own economy for the sake of US geopolitical interests while also buying US gas at an ultra-premium price. Blowing it up not only helped ensure Germany would not be 'tempted' into turning away from the US and would remain heavily dependent, but was also extremely profitable for the US, and a substantially damaging blow to Russia who had again spent literally a decade getting that pipeline up, to say nothing of the viable income stream once the flows started. And now, again, add on top of this years of us trying to stop the pipeline's construction, and then eventually going so absurdly far as to publicly threaten to blow it up. I view the world probabilistically, so I will happily agree there's some chance that somehow the US was not responsible, but I think that chance is very close to zero. --- [1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Curveball_(informant) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Curveball_(informant) [2] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allegations_of_Iraqi_mobile_weapons_laboratories https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allegations_of_Iraqi_mobile_we... [3] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Niger_uranium_forgeries https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Niger_uranium_forgeries

swader999 3y ago

Wouldn't they have had more options and leverage had they just turned it off or refuse to supply it? What does sabotaging it do that gives Russia any more advantage?

stickfigure 3y ago
If they can blame the US, it drives a wedge between the US and the gas consumers (Europe). The pipe wasn't in use and wasn't likely to be used anytime soon, if ever. Russia only wins if Ukraine's allies give up. I can see Putin willing to trade a useless pipeline for a chance at dismembering the alliance. The only other option that makes sense is Ukraine doing it. But it seems a high-risk strategy for low reward; at least publicly, there was no indication that Germany et al were begging Russia to turn the gas back on.
- swader999 3y ago
  I've heard a theory that USA did it to get Germany to fully commit to supporting the war, didn't want Russia to have leverage, wanted Germany dependant on USA for gas. Then there's the comment from Biden that foreshadowed it. I'm not convinced on any theory personally though.

somenameforme 3y ago

Kind of like how the narrative that Iraq does NOT have WMDs was also thoroughly debunked? [1] [2] As I'm sure you're aware, we remain in a state of information warfare. As a result of this, what you read in the media is borderline worthless. In this story it's impossible to know the truth, let alone debunk it, as next to nothing is truly falsifiable by you. All you can really do is rely on your own logic, and try to remove as much bias as possible. In this case Russia spent billions of dollars constructing that pipeline, over more than a decade, overcoming countless hurdles to do so. And the whole time this was going on the US was constantly trying to interfere with its development, at times arbitrarily threatening Germany and Swiss companies with possible sanctions over it. Then Biden publicly and literally said, "If Russia invades, that means tanks or troops crossing the border of Ukraine again, then there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2. We will bring an end to it." The idea that Russia blew it up for basically any reason, let alone some hand-wavey notion that 'it might cause infighting' is really just not logical. Since Germany has tried to ween themselves off Russian gas, their economy has somewhat predictably began to suffer. Once the backbone of the EU, Germany has since collapsed into recession, inflation has been skyrocketing (20% on foodstuffs), and so on. Russia could have predicted most of these outcomes if Germany refused to take the gas, and expected to have tremendous leverage. At the minimum driving infighting as Germany pragmatists fight with US interests. [1] - https://www.nytimes.com/2003/02/06/opinion/irrefutable-and-undeniable.html https://www.nytimes.com/2003/02/06/opinion/irrefutable-and-u... [2] - https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/opinions/2003/02/06/irrefutable/e598b1be-a78a-4a42-8e1a-c336f7a217f4/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/opinions/2003/02/06/i...

stickfigure 3y ago
It's quite obvious from US military behavior during and after the invasion that the folks in charge genuinely believed Iraq had WMDs. Colin Powell was genuine, if misinformed. If that narrative was an information operation, it was an Iraqi information operation, and it backfired horribly. The pipeline wasn't in use and there wasn't any indication that it would come into use anytime in the future. Germany already said - with Biden - that Nord Stream 2 was over. There was no real-world incentive for the US (or Ukraine, for that matter) to blow it up. But it sure is pretty good fuel for people who already think the US is the Great Satan.
- somenameforme 3y ago
  I'd encourage you to look at the findings of the "evidence" for the Iraq War. Not only was it overtly fabricated, it was just lazy and sloppy. Our high level informant in Saddam's government with first-hand knowledge of what was happening, was actually a taxi driver and thief with 0 knowledge of anything [1]. The mobile weapon's laboratories were completely standard run-of-the-mill weather balloon refilling stations. [2] The rock solid proof of Iraq trying to purchase 'yellowcake uranium', were poorly made forgeries. [3] Literally all of the "Irrefutable and Undeniable" evidence was fake and fabricated. Nord Stream had just finished completion in September 2021. The US was able to 'convince' Scholtz to defer certification of it, but it was an untenable position. Rejecting Russian gas would entail Germany doing what it was ultimately compelled to do - tanking its own economy for the sake of US geopolitical interests while also buying US gas at an ultra-premium price. Blowing it up not only helped ensure Germany would not be 'tempted' into turning away from the US and would remain heavily dependent, but was also extremely profitable for the US, and a substantially damaging blow to Russia who had again spent literally a decade getting that pipeline up, to say nothing of the viable income stream once the flows started. And now, again, add on top of this years of us trying to stop the pipeline's construction, and then eventually going so absurdly far as to publicly threaten to blow it up. I view the world probabilistically, so I will happily agree there's some chance that somehow the US was not responsible, but I think that chance is very close to zero. --- [1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Curveball_(informant) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Curveball_(informant) [2] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allegations_of_Iraqi_mobile_weapons_laboratories https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Allegations_of_Iraqi_mobile_we... [3] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Niger_uranium_forgeries https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Niger_uranium_forgeries