No. 1) The US has real productivity growth 2) The US has population growth 3) The US Central Bank has no reason not to bail out the US Federal Government if

No. 1) The US has real productivity growth 2) The US has population growth 3) The US Central Bank has no reason not to bail out the US Federal Government if needed. Greece/Italy would be like the US Central Bank (The Fed) not bailing out California. You can see why that might be politically popular. There's not really a politically popular reason not to bail out the US Government. A default would mean the end of 30-year fixed rate mortgages. Interest rates would be 18% again. House values would drop by 70% - and if you thought 2008 was bad - you better hold onto your butt. This would make The Great Depression look like a small recession. Which is all further reason why it WON'T happen. At pretty much any point, politicians could go back and pay back treasury holders in full w/ accrued interest, and then the problems are massively reduced. There's no political will to drive everyone in the country into a black hole for no reason.