4 ms·
In my estimation, there are two unsustainable end states, one economic, one social. Economically, it seems things will fall apart when interest payments balloo
by netbioserror 3y ago
In my estimation, there are two unsustainable end states, one economic, one social.
Economically, it seems things will fall apart when interest payments balloon to become by far the dominating expense of the US government. At this point, the runaway cost of interest will force even faster money printing, resulting in a positive hyperinflationary feedback loop. Eventually the printing will outpace economic growth, which means inflation will be cannibalizing the actual economic output of the people. People will either stop working or find other mediums to trade in.
The social endpoint can happen at any point along the way there. It's a fairly well-known historical reality that a failing elite faces the threat of replacement when new elites can obtain the blessing of the populace; otherwise the populace is hopeless. A campaign to permanently stamp down potential new leaders wherever they may arise is feasible for a limited time but eventually becomes too expensive or diverts all attention away from important material realities. Once there is a cycling of the elites, a drastic shift in policy would undoubtedly be the result. In this scenario, it's highly like that violence occurs.
I'd obviously much prefer the first scenario, where people find other ways to trade peacefully before they start a revolution.