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Germany probably could not refuse delivery without political fallout from increased gas prices, right? It could have been a “Cortés burning the ships” moment, w

Germany probably could not refuse delivery without political fallout from increased gas prices, right? It could have been a “Cortés burning the ships” moment, with elements inside NATO (maybe even within the German government) cutting off Russian gas irrevocably in order to prevent domestic considerations from influencing German decision makers. The story of “Russians so crazy they blew up their own pipeline that gave them huge cash flows plus undue influence on European politics” just makes absolutely no sense to me.

themgt 3y ago
It's widely forgotten but the Nord Stream attackers actually messed up and missed the Nord Stream 2B pipe, so in fact to this day Germany is refusing gas delivery. The B pipe of Nord Stream 2, meanwhile, wasn't harmed at all – and could easily be put into use even today. But why did the perpetrators leave one of the four pipes undamaged? There are some indications that the saboteurs confused the A and B pipes of Nord Stream 2 in the darkness and unintentionally attacked the same pipe twice. https://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/investigating-the-attack-on-nord-stream-all-the-clues-point-toward-kyiv-a-124838c7-992a-4d0e-9894-942d4a665778 https://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/investigating-th...
matthewdgreen 3y ago
It makes sense if Russians were contractually required to deliver the gas, but couldn't benefit from it due to sanctions.
jcranmer 3y ago
At the time of the explosion, the pipeline was not delivering any gas; Russia never turned the pipeline back on after they shutdown for summer maintenance.
- mistrial9 3y ago
  > The Nordstream pipeline attack was the largest release of methane in human history. https://www.unep.org/technical-highlight/unep-finds-nord-stream-gas-leak-may-be-highest-methane-emission-event-still https://www.unep.org/technical-highlight/unep-finds-nord-str...
  - RandomLensman 3y ago
    The pipelines remained pressurized, that's all.
  - Retric 3y ago
    75-230 kt is a lot from a single event, but trivial compared to some persistent LNG leaks. It’s 0.002% to 0.004% of the current methane in the atmosphere diminishing to half that in 6–8 years, which again is a lot from a single event but not particularly relevant long term. One Russian mine was leaking ~400kt every 6 months and they didn’t fix it just cut that down to 1/3. PS: Here’s a US example at 97kt https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aliso_Canyon_gas_leak https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aliso_Canyon_gas_leak
- bnralt 3y ago
  At the time of the attack, Russia had spent months giving multiple fake excuses as to why they weren’t sending gas through the pipeline[1]. Interesting bit: > Russian officials and Gazprom representatives continue to insist that Germany could easily solve the problem by simply agreeing to certify the Nord Stream 2 pipeline and accept deliveries via it. What’s interesting is that Nord Stream 2 wasn’t needed when Russia first started saying that certifying it would bring gas back, and European governments said as much. After the explosion, however, the previous Russian claim became a reality, and Putin pushed for certifying Nord Stream 2 as a solution[2]. It’s still unclear who was responsible for the attack, but the claims that Russia would have no motive ignore what was actually happen in the lead up to the explosion. [1] https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/87837 https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/87837 [2] https://www.dw.com/en/putin-offers-europe-gas-through-nord-stream-2-germany-declines/a-63416138 https://www.dw.com/en/putin-offers-europe-gas-through-nord-s...

themgt 3y ago

It's widely forgotten but the Nord Stream attackers actually messed up and missed the Nord Stream 2B pipe, so in fact to this day Germany is refusing gas delivery. The B pipe of Nord Stream 2, meanwhile, wasn't harmed at all – and could easily be put into use even today. But why did the perpetrators leave one of the four pipes undamaged? There are some indications that the saboteurs confused the A and B pipes of Nord Stream 2 in the darkness and unintentionally attacked the same pipe twice. https://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/investigating-the-attack-on-nord-stream-all-the-clues-point-toward-kyiv-a-124838c7-992a-4d0e-9894-942d4a665778 https://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/investigating-th...

matthewdgreen 3y ago

It makes sense if Russians were contractually required to deliver the gas, but couldn't benefit from it due to sanctions.

jcranmer 3y ago

At the time of the explosion, the pipeline was not delivering any gas; Russia never turned the pipeline back on after they shutdown for summer maintenance.

mistrial9 3y ago
> The Nordstream pipeline attack was the largest release of methane in human history. https://www.unep.org/technical-highlight/unep-finds-nord-stream-gas-leak-may-be-highest-methane-emission-event-still https://www.unep.org/technical-highlight/unep-finds-nord-str...
- RandomLensman 3y ago
  The pipelines remained pressurized, that's all.
- Retric 3y ago
  75-230 kt is a lot from a single event, but trivial compared to some persistent LNG leaks. It’s 0.002% to 0.004% of the current methane in the atmosphere diminishing to half that in 6–8 years, which again is a lot from a single event but not particularly relevant long term. One Russian mine was leaking ~400kt every 6 months and they didn’t fix it just cut that down to 1/3. PS: Here’s a US example at 97kt https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aliso_Canyon_gas_leak https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aliso_Canyon_gas_leak
bnralt 3y ago
At the time of the attack, Russia had spent months giving multiple fake excuses as to why they weren’t sending gas through the pipeline[1]. Interesting bit: > Russian officials and Gazprom representatives continue to insist that Germany could easily solve the problem by simply agreeing to certify the Nord Stream 2 pipeline and accept deliveries via it. What’s interesting is that Nord Stream 2 wasn’t needed when Russia first started saying that certifying it would bring gas back, and European governments said as much. After the explosion, however, the previous Russian claim became a reality, and Putin pushed for certifying Nord Stream 2 as a solution[2]. It’s still unclear who was responsible for the attack, but the claims that Russia would have no motive ignore what was actually happen in the lead up to the explosion. [1] https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/87837 https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/87837 [2] https://www.dw.com/en/putin-offers-europe-gas-through-nord-stream-2-germany-declines/a-63416138 https://www.dw.com/en/putin-offers-europe-gas-through-nord-s...