15 ms·

The movies that people most want to see are the movies that people most want to see.

by eli 3y ago

grotorea 3y ago
It could be possible that different movies could be popular with different groups. Say, imagine a hypothetical movie really popular with teenagers with Internet access but not enough money for tickets, compared with another movie that is really popular with rural people with no broadband but who visit town in the weekend for fun. We might see differences. But yeah, for the real interesting questions we would need to get the data for movies that are not available by piracy but are available in theaters.
cantSpellSober 3y ago
That's a very generic conclusion, is it related to this article somehow? > The data covers multiple methods of unlicensed content delivery including Streaming, P2P Torrents, Web Downloads and Stream-ripper sites We're just assuming that the audience using these sites is the exact same audience as the comparison? > cinema revenue at the individual premises and film-title level [in the North American market] I think one audience learns about a new movie on a torrent site and then goes to see it in the theatre. (Another audience never uses torrent sites. Another uses them but rarely goes to the theatre, etc) If there's statistically significant data about the first audience (as the article claims), that's interesting.
- aidenn0 3y ago
  > We're just assuming that the audience using these sites is the exact same audience as the comparison? No, we are assuming they are highly correlated.
  - cantSpellSober 3y ago
    No we aren't, the authors of the study argue that they are based on their data
    - aidenn0 3y ago
      Which is not at all surprising from my personal experience. It's not like people who use torrent sites live in a completely different world from those who don't. The argument that piracy drives box office sales would surprise me, except in a few cases (e.g. I would believe that some limited release movies might get exposure via piracy causing a wider release) that are more the exception than the rule.
      - cantSpellSober 3y ago
        I agree, we aren't "assuming they are highly correlated," as you said. > The argument that piracy drives box office sales would surprise me Me too! It would be interesting if it did however; I can imagine a case where a user of an unlicensed site learned about a movie there and wanted to see it on the big screen. If you read the study they don't argue that however.
        aidenn0 3y ago
        I misinterpreted your comment that I first responded to as arguing that.
- lcnPylGDnU4H9OF 3y ago
  > That's a very generic conclusion, is it related to this article somehow? Indeed, this is at the top of the article (emphasis mine): > New research from piracy tracking firm MUSO shows that movie piracy is strongly linked to box office revenues. When pirated downloads peak or slow down, movie theater visits show a similar trend. While this may sound counterintuitive, the finding is actually quite obvious. Correlation is not causation and pirates are people too.
  - cantSpellSober 3y ago
    Thanks I read the article. From the study: > Thus there is a very strong, statistically significant, positive correlation between Box Office revenue and unlicensed consumption
    - lcnPylGDnU4H9OF 3y ago
      I am not sure of your point. What is the significance of that statement if not to say that increases in "unlicensed consumption" don't decrease box office revenue? The fact that they have a positive correlation is kinda the default; one doesn't affect the other and there's likely instead some other cause for the statistically significant correlation, such as popularity.
      - cantSpellSober 3y ago
        It's not my point, the significance is listed under Conclusions.
        lcnPylGDnU4H9OF 3y ago
        Sorry for the confusion. Stepping back to my initial reply, you asked: > That's a very generic conclusion, is it related to this article somehow? And I intended to answer the question with how their statement is related to the article by pointing out that this statement is written at the start of the article: > New research from piracy tracking firm MUSO shows that movie piracy is strongly linked to box office revenues. When pirated downloads peak or slow down, movie theater visits show a similar trend. While this may sound counterintuitive, the finding is actually quite obvious. Correlation is not causation and pirates are people too. I didn't understand your point when you responded by saying: > Thanks I read the article. From the study: >> Thus there is a very strong, statistically significant, positive correlation between Box Office revenue and unlicensed consumption What is the significance of the statement you quoted as a reply to mine? That's what I don't follow. (Thanks for the time you've taken so far with your replies!)
Adverblessly 3y ago
I assume what they are going for is that if they were inversely correlated it would imply that movie piracy drives down box office revenue (since you could say "the more pirated a movie is, the lower its box office revenue"). Since they aren't, it implies that piracy does not significantly cause reduced box office revenue. I've brought it up a few times before, but you can read about another study here https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=15319476 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=15319476 that assuming my previous comment on it was correct found for example that every pirated movie is 0.27 of a lost sale, whereas every pirated video game is actually 0.24 of an extra sale. If 0.27 was actually 1 or more, then a result like the linked study would have been more surprising for example.
- cantSpellSober 3y ago
  I don't think so, this is a study from a marketing company. This is essentially an ad for their services, which monitor activity on unlicensed sites (I gather): > The combination of Box Office revenue data and unlicensed consumption data would provide a holistic view of film consumption
  - Adverblessly 3y ago
    Sorry for being unclear, by "what they are going for" I meant why TorrentFreak chose to post about this study, not why the study was made in the first place.

The movies that people most want to see are the movies that people most want to see.

by eli 3y ago

The movies that people most want to see are the movies that people most want to see.

It could be possible that different movies could be popular with different groups. Say, imagine a hypothetical movie really popular with teenagers with Internet access but not enough money for tickets, compared with another movie that is really popular with rural people with no broadband but who visit town in the weekend for fun. We might see differences. But yeah, for the real interesting questions we would need to get the data for movies that are not available by piracy but are available in theaters.

cantSpellSober 3y ago

That's a very generic conclusion, is it related to this article somehow? > The data covers multiple methods of unlicensed content delivery including Streaming, P2P Torrents, Web Downloads and Stream-ripper sites We're just assuming that the audience using these sites is the exact same audience as the comparison? > cinema revenue at the individual premises and film-title level [in the North American market] I think one audience learns about a new movie on a torrent site and then goes to see it in the theatre. (Another audience never uses torrent sites. Another uses them but rarely goes to the theatre, etc) If there's statistically significant data about the first audience (as the article claims), that's interesting.

aidenn0 3y ago
> We're just assuming that the audience using these sites is the exact same audience as the comparison? No, we are assuming they are highly correlated.
- cantSpellSober 3y ago
  No we aren't, the authors of the study argue that they are based on their data
  - aidenn0 3y ago
    Which is not at all surprising from my personal experience. It's not like people who use torrent sites live in a completely different world from those who don't. The argument that piracy drives box office sales would surprise me, except in a few cases (e.g. I would believe that some limited release movies might get exposure via piracy causing a wider release) that are more the exception than the rule.
    - cantSpellSober 3y ago
      I agree, we aren't "assuming they are highly correlated," as you said. > The argument that piracy drives box office sales would surprise me Me too! It would be interesting if it did however; I can imagine a case where a user of an unlicensed site learned about a movie there and wanted to see it on the big screen. If you read the study they don't argue that however.
      - aidenn0 3y ago
        I misinterpreted your comment that I first responded to as arguing that.
lcnPylGDnU4H9OF 3y ago
> That's a very generic conclusion, is it related to this article somehow? Indeed, this is at the top of the article (emphasis mine): > New research from piracy tracking firm MUSO shows that movie piracy is strongly linked to box office revenues. When pirated downloads peak or slow down, movie theater visits show a similar trend. While this may sound counterintuitive, the finding is actually quite obvious. Correlation is not causation and pirates are people too.
- cantSpellSober 3y ago
  Thanks I read the article. From the study: > Thus there is a very strong, statistically significant, positive correlation between Box Office revenue and unlicensed consumption
  - lcnPylGDnU4H9OF 3y ago
    I am not sure of your point. What is the significance of that statement if not to say that increases in "unlicensed consumption" don't decrease box office revenue? The fact that they have a positive correlation is kinda the default; one doesn't affect the other and there's likely instead some other cause for the statistically significant correlation, such as popularity.
    - cantSpellSober 3y ago
      It's not my point, the significance is listed under Conclusions.
      - lcnPylGDnU4H9OF 3y ago
        Sorry for the confusion. Stepping back to my initial reply, you asked: > That's a very generic conclusion, is it related to this article somehow? And I intended to answer the question with how their statement is related to the article by pointing out that this statement is written at the start of the article: > New research from piracy tracking firm MUSO shows that movie piracy is strongly linked to box office revenues. When pirated downloads peak or slow down, movie theater visits show a similar trend. While this may sound counterintuitive, the finding is actually quite obvious. Correlation is not causation and pirates are people too. I didn't understand your point when you responded by saying: > Thanks I read the article. From the study: >> Thus there is a very strong, statistically significant, positive correlation between Box Office revenue and unlicensed consumption What is the significance of the statement you quoted as a reply to mine? That's what I don't follow. (Thanks for the time you've taken so far with your replies!)

Adverblessly 3y ago

I assume what they are going for is that if they were inversely correlated it would imply that movie piracy drives down box office revenue (since you could say "the more pirated a movie is, the lower its box office revenue"). Since they aren't, it implies that piracy does not significantly cause reduced box office revenue. I've brought it up a few times before, but you can read about another study here https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=15319476 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=15319476 that assuming my previous comment on it was correct found for example that every pirated movie is 0.27 of a lost sale, whereas every pirated video game is actually 0.24 of an extra sale. If 0.27 was actually 1 or more, then a result like the linked study would have been more surprising for example.

cantSpellSober 3y ago
I don't think so, this is a study from a marketing company. This is essentially an ad for their services, which monitor activity on unlicensed sites (I gather): > The combination of Box Office revenue data and unlicensed consumption data would provide a holistic view of film consumption
- Adverblessly 3y ago
  Sorry for being unclear, by "what they are going for" I meant why TorrentFreak chose to post about this study, not why the study was made in the first place.