5 ms·

I'm sure Kurzweil knows about Malthus. The point is that nowhere in nature or sociology is there such a thing as unlimited exponential growth - it is always sto

by mixmax 18y ago

I'm sure Kurzweil knows about Malthus. The point is that nowhere in nature or sociology is there such a thing as unlimited exponential growth - it is always stopped by lack of resources. Why should computation be any different?

jerf 18y ago
The Malthusian curve occurs because progress impedes progress. The more you grow, the less resources you have to grow with. Technology doesn't work that way. Technology feeds technology. Therefore, the curve will not look like the Malthus curve. Kurzweil doesn't claim it'll actually go forever. That's a strawman. He simply observes that technology feeding technology is a different shape. Technology feeding technology would probably look more like a exponential curve that hits a very sudden wall at the limit point, whatever it may be, rather than a gradual falloff.
- robertk 18y ago
  The computationally enormous brain contained in a compact space is proof enough that technology won't graze any limits for a long time.
- mixmax 18y ago
  Interesting argument...
  - swombat 18y ago
    It's one of the cornerstones of the singularity possibility. If you didn't get that argument, you didn't really get the whole singularity movement...
dejb 18y ago
The difference is that we are probably nowhere near the Malthus limit in technology. The equivalent of the Malthus limit for technology would be when the universe was saturated with intelligent matter - intelligent matter that would probably make our current CPUs look like vacuum tubes. Even the most optimistic singularitarian wouldn't predict this would be happening any time soon. .
mattmaroon 18y ago
Nothing in nature has the power to actively manage its resources. Bacteria can't build a bigger petri dish or perhaps they wouldn't stop growing. Humans could grow their food sources to match massive population growth (up to some maximum amount determined by the Earth's natural resources) our country did it. Many impoverished nations did not, but that doesn't mean it's impossible. If computers can just become intelligent enough to spread beyond Earth, given the energy they have available now (which clearly they can since we did) they would theoretically be limited only by the amount of energy in the universe, but the curve would stay vertical for so long as to be effectively infinite.

by mixmax 18y ago

jerf 18y ago

The Malthusian curve occurs because progress impedes progress. The more you grow, the less resources you have to grow with. Technology doesn't work that way. Technology feeds technology. Therefore, the curve will not look like the Malthus curve. Kurzweil doesn't claim it'll actually go forever. That's a strawman. He simply observes that technology feeding technology is a different shape. Technology feeding technology would probably look more like a exponential curve that hits a very sudden wall at the limit point, whatever it may be, rather than a gradual falloff.

robertk 18y ago
The computationally enormous brain contained in a compact space is proof enough that technology won't graze any limits for a long time.
mixmax 18y ago
Interesting argument...
- swombat 18y ago
  It's one of the cornerstones of the singularity possibility. If you didn't get that argument, you didn't really get the whole singularity movement...

dejb 18y ago

The difference is that we are probably nowhere near the Malthus limit in technology. The equivalent of the Malthus limit for technology would be when the universe was saturated with intelligent matter - intelligent matter that would probably make our current CPUs look like vacuum tubes. Even the most optimistic singularitarian wouldn't predict this would be happening any time soon. .

mattmaroon 18y ago

Nothing in nature has the power to actively manage its resources. Bacteria can't build a bigger petri dish or perhaps they wouldn't stop growing. Humans could grow their food sources to match massive population growth (up to some maximum amount determined by the Earth's natural resources) our country did it. Many impoverished nations did not, but that doesn't mean it's impossible. If computers can just become intelligent enough to spread beyond Earth, given the energy they have available now (which clearly they can since we did) they would theoretically be limited only by the amount of energy in the universe, but the curve would stay vertical for so long as to be effectively infinite.