It's pretty simple, but in trying to demonstrate why, the author misses the point: When an individual with something to gain asserts some probabilities, disreg

It's pretty simple, but in trying to demonstrate why, the author misses the point: When an individual with something to gain asserts some probabilities, disregard that assertion. Forget about medicine or criminal trials. Think of a sales professional - their assertions are commonly disregarded (rightly) as fluff. But put a white coat or nice suit on and people get deferential. A prosecutor in the courtroom is little different than a car salesman.