Correct. Imagine if you bought and hold in Japan in the 1980's. Buy 2023, maybe you would have broken even [1] There are 2 problems: 1. Market timing works: a.

Correct. Imagine if you bought and hold in Japan in the 1980's. Buy 2023, maybe you would have broken even [1] There are 2 problems: 1. Market timing works: a. With inside information e.g. US congress b. Take an outsised risk e.g. Nasem Taleb keep buying/selling deep out of the money options. Lose money every day to make an outsised gain 2. You are Warren Buffet. Which is basically buy stocks like you are buying a company. Have the option of buying preferential shares. And hey 1b monkeys on typewriters... Still totally agree with the OP. The last 40 years have been ridiculous from a macro perspective: 1. Interest rates, the most important price in the economy, the price of money, has fallen from 18% in the Paul Volker days till after covid close to 0. 2. Money has been printed like never before after the 08 collapse and covid. It is very difficult to look at 2023, with the US fed cash rate at approx 5%, global interest rates going up, price inflation at 7%+, US national debt at $33T and growing at $1T per month exponentially, and the US paying more on Interest expense (not principal, just Interest) than they spend on the military. I like Nassem Taleb. Invest still in index funds but invest in global infrastructure that is recession proof e..g [3]. Be anti-fragile [1] https://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/quickview.do?SERIES_KEY=143.FM.M.JP.JPY.DS.EI.JAPDOWA.HSTA https://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/quickview.do?SERIES_KEY=143.FM.M.J... [2] https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/12/why-does-the-wealth-gap-between-congress-and-voters-matter/250546/ https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/12/why-doe... [3] https://www.vanguard.com.au/personal/invest-with-us/fund?portId=8110 https://www.vanguard.com.au/personal/invest-with-us/fund?por...