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It's not just inflation; actual real interest rates are now the highest they've been in a decade[1]. This is how the fed works -- raise real rates until demand
by jldugger 3y ago
It's not just inflation; actual real interest rates are now the highest they've been in a decade[1]. This is how the fed works -- raise real rates until demand for goods drops. Today's real rate is still not particularly high, but at the margins a doubling of the cost should lead to some drop in activity, and in borrowing.
Look at a company like Apple[2], which has something like 100B in debt. After setting aside the 60B in cash, thats still 40B that they will eventually roll over into high cost debt, or unwind the business line that the debt fuels. Probably a mix of the two based on margin and risk.
But once you start cutting business lines, you cut revenue and that usually leads to lower share prices, since equity is basically priced on a 15-30 year forecast. Which I think is why patio11 says that all tech compensation plans are an option on interest rates or some such.
[1]: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/REAINTRATREARAT10Y https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/REAINTRATREARAT10Y
[2]: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/key-statistics?p=AAPL https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/key-statistics?p=AAPL