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> MOTIVATION = EXPECTANCY x VALUE / IMPULSIVENESS x DELAY This is actually a good thing! I think that's why procrastination is so natural. This is not a critic
by GuB-42 3y ago
> MOTIVATION = EXPECTANCY x VALUE / IMPULSIVENESS x DELAY
This is actually a good thing! I think that's why procrastination is so natural. This is not a criticism of the article, but an attempt of explaining why procrastination is not just a thing to fight, more like something you need to work with.
Let's frame the problem in terms of money and games, as a simplified model. I can give you the chance to play a game in 1 year where you have a 50% chance of winning $100. How much are you ready to pay me now for the privilege? Of course, you want to make money.
The first step is to multiply the chance by the prize, here, that's $50. So if I offered you to play immediately, you will want to pay less than $50. That's the "expectancy x value" part of the equation.
Now, the delay. many things can happen in a year, one of us may die and you will never get to play and win your prize, and you'd want to take interest rates into account. Let's say you go with 10%/year, so that's down to about 45%, that's your "expectancy x value / delay".
Now "delay" factor always increases with time but it is not linear, for example, I used interest rates for my toy model, which is an exponential. This is where we introduce "impulsiveness", which is more like a function than a factor, so I would rewrite the equation as "expectancy x value / impulsiveness(delay)". As a function, impulsiveness is always increasing and depends on many factors, but generally, the more impulsive you are, the faster it will climb. In my toy model, it is represented by an interest rate.
So, the "procrastination equation" actually maximizes value!
A more practical example would be the famous marshmallow experiments where a kid is offered a single marshmallow, and if he doesn't touch it for 10 minutes, he gets a second one. It can be seen as a test of delayed gratification, but it can also be seen as a test of trust. The experimenter may come back to steal the first marshmallow instead of giving a second one, and to be fair, outside of an experiment, if you see a plate with a single marshmallow somewhere and leave it alone for 10 minutes, it is more likely that someone else will eat it than someone putting a second one next to it.