8 ms·

New study confirms gulf stream weakening

93 points by leononame 3y ago

iamflimflam1 3y ago
Climate change is one of the reasons that I'm actually glad that we didn't have children. When I talk to people that have children and understand what is happening it ends up being quite depressing.
- lacrimacida 3y ago
  I don’t know why you’re getting downvoted, perhaps you’re sees as selfish which I don’t share. I do have kids and am indeed horrified for them. I too may look selfish to others but in all honesty when you have skin in the game it the reaction is more intense.
  - osigurdson 3y ago
    What is the point of being horrified for your children? It will not make them stronger or more successful in an uncertain future.
    - lacrimacida 3y ago
      It’s parents’ anxiety, irrational but not something one can easily snap out of…
    - pmg102 3y ago
      "What is the point of feeling emotion X" is a category error. Emotions aren't selected intellectually for their chosen outcome, they are felt.
      - osigurdson 3y ago
        Fair
- graemep 3y ago
  Compared to Europe in the 20th century with two world wars? Quite a lot of the rest of the world now? The world not being in great shape globally, does not necessarily mean individuals not having good lives.
jl6 3y ago
What would be the consequence of this on various regions? A colder Europe?
- readthenotes1 3y ago
  I believe there's also some fear about the cold Arctic water flowing south and destroying the fishing banks off Canada and some other Really Bad Stuff...
  - morkalork 3y ago
    On the Pacific side? Because on the Atlantic side the fish stocks still haven't recovered no?
- deleted 3y ago
  [deleted]
- voisin 3y ago
  There’s a documentary about it: https://m.imdb.com/title/tt0319262/ https://m.imdb.com/title/tt0319262/ /s
- zh3 3y ago
  For Europe generally - and the UK in particular, where the seas around it act as a natural temperature buffer - yes, it's would likely get quite a lot colder. Take a look at how the temperature average and variations in NYC at ~41 degrees north compare to London which is more like 51 degrees but bathed in the gulf stream (caveats involved, both coastal northern hemisphere east coast cities but a lot more land to the west of NY than for London).
  - andersa 3y ago
    Isn't that... great? Europe is currently annoyingly hot in the summer, so getting colder sounds like an improvement.
    - pfannkuchen 3y ago
OceanKing 3y ago
From the link: > "While we can definitively say this weakening is happening, we are unable to say to what extent it is related to climate change or whether it is a natural variation," [the first co-author] Piecuch said. "We can see similar weakening indicated in climate models, but for this paper we were not able to put together the observational evidence that would really allow us to pinpoint the cause of the observed decline." but also... > [The second co-author] Beal added, "The Gulf Stream is a vital artery of the ocean's circulation, and so the ramifications of its weakening are global. I used to think of the ocean as our last remaining frontier, wild, pristine, and indomitable. It saddens me to acknowledge, from our study and so many others, and from recent record-breaking headlines, that even the remotest parts of the ocean are now in the grip of our addiction to fossil fuels." (emphasis mine) Seems a little disingenuous to state in the publication that you cannot conclude the cause of the decline, and then in the press release go about definitively blaming it on fossil fuels, including stating that this conclusion is supported by your study.
- aCoreyJ 3y ago
  The thing is it's impossible to prove any single event or change is caused by climate change because we have no way of showing what would be happening if humans hadn't altered the planet. With weather we can show that severe events have become more common. I'd have to read the study thoroughly to know for sure but it seems they can show certain effects of the fossil fuels industry but not actual causation of the overall slowdown, which may be impossible to prove.
  - jncfhnb 3y ago
    Everything is impossible to prove. However fossil fuels are demonstrably casual factors in mechanics that generate the exact effects we see. Effects which correlate extremely well with the timing of our emissions and we’re largely unchanged on such time scales previously.
  - kergonath 3y ago
    “Prove” has different meanings for most people compared to scientists. As you say, it is impossible to prove that something like this, which results from a complex set of conditions and most likely a complex set of causes, results from a single thing. So we speak in probabilities, confidence intervals, and significance. That’s just science speak. This results from human-made global warming in the same way as a smoker’s lung cancer results from smoking. The conclusion is also the same in both cases: “don’t do it”. Nobody can prove that it will kill, but it drastically increases the odds. Also, note that this is not at all unexpected. I remember articles in scientific vulgarisation magazines in the 1990s discussion this and the fact that, counter-intuitively, global warming could result in local cooling in Western Europe because of a weakened Gulf Stream. We are still far from that.
happytiger 3y ago
I’ll take “Things that make me go Oh Shit” for 1000, Alex.
bloopernova 3y ago
I know it's naive of me to hope, but I hope that if a large part of the "western" world is affected by the gulf stream weakening then more definitive action will be taken against climate change. Something related in the novel Project Hail Mary affected me greatly: "I've run the best models I have. Crops are going to fail. The global staple crops are wheat, barley, millet, potatoes, soy, and most important of all, rice. All of them are pretty sensitive about temperature ranges. If your rice paddy freezes over, the rice dies. If your potato farm floods, the potatoes die. And if your wheat farm experiences ten times normal humidity, it gets fungal parasites and dies." Sure, we may not be looking at freezing rice paddies, but flooding is absolutely affecting people all over the world due to the warmer air holding more moisture. Not at all a happy thought, I'm sorry.
- myshpa 3y ago
  > more definitive action will be taken against climate change a) our problem is not only the climate change, but overshoot / polycrisis b) there is a profit to be made even from the collapse, maybe bigger than ever Nothing will get changed, because solving the problems would mean dismantling the system.
  - lacrimacida 3y ago
    > Nothing will get changed, because solving the problems would mean dismantling the system Oh well, the system may simply collapse and not be able and it won’t be pretty. But that will be a starting point for rebuilding.
  - bloopernova 3y ago
    > Nothing will get changed, because solving the problems would mean dismantling the system. I don't want you to be correct, but I fear that you are. My heart breaks thinking about it. My stepdaughter is 23, and she's going to live through some very tough times. People in positions of power and influence seem to think they can flee to New Zealand and life will continue as before. I don't know how to disabuse them of that notion.
    - 3y ago
anonymousiam 3y ago
This is an El Niño year. https://www.weather.gov/news/230706-ElNino https://www.weather.gov/news/230706-ElNino El Niño can cause these effects. https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/ninonina.html https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/ninonina.html
- beowulfey 3y ago
  El Niño has nothing to do with ocean currents in the Atlantic?
- this_steve_j 3y ago
  The study looked at almost 40 years worth of observational data from multiple correlated sources. That is one of its contributions relative to similar studies that looked at fewer sources of measurements, or used different methods.
  - anonymousiam 3y ago
    Given that polar sea ice peaked in 1979, but decades before had minimums below anything recorded since, and this study begins with 1982 data, I don't see how they can claim such certainty.
    - isthatafact 3y ago
      > "but decades before had minimums below anything recorded since" I am skeptical of your claim.
      - anonymousiam 3y ago
        Skepticism is good! 15.9 million square kilometers was the recorded antarctic sea ice coverage in August 1966. https://ntrs.nasa.gov/api/citations/20140017193/downloads/20140017193.pdf https://ntrs.nasa.gov/api/citations/20140017193/downloads/20...
        3y ago

93 points by leononame 3y ago

Climate change is one of the reasons that I'm actually glad that we didn't have children. When I talk to people that have children and understand what is happening it ends up being quite depressing.

lacrimacida 3y ago
I don’t know why you’re getting downvoted, perhaps you’re sees as selfish which I don’t share. I do have kids and am indeed horrified for them. I too may look selfish to others but in all honesty when you have skin in the game it the reaction is more intense.
- osigurdson 3y ago
  What is the point of being horrified for your children? It will not make them stronger or more successful in an uncertain future.
  - lacrimacida 3y ago
    It’s parents’ anxiety, irrational but not something one can easily snap out of…
  - pmg102 3y ago
    "What is the point of feeling emotion X" is a category error. Emotions aren't selected intellectually for their chosen outcome, they are felt.
    - osigurdson 3y ago
      Fair
graemep 3y ago
Compared to Europe in the 20th century with two world wars? Quite a lot of the rest of the world now? The world not being in great shape globally, does not necessarily mean individuals not having good lives.

jl6 3y ago

What would be the consequence of this on various regions? A colder Europe?

readthenotes1 3y ago
I believe there's also some fear about the cold Arctic water flowing south and destroying the fishing banks off Canada and some other Really Bad Stuff...
- morkalork 3y ago
  On the Pacific side? Because on the Atlantic side the fish stocks still haven't recovered no?
deleted 3y ago
[deleted]
voisin 3y ago
There’s a documentary about it: https://m.imdb.com/title/tt0319262/ https://m.imdb.com/title/tt0319262/ /s
zh3 3y ago
For Europe generally - and the UK in particular, where the seas around it act as a natural temperature buffer - yes, it's would likely get quite a lot colder. Take a look at how the temperature average and variations in NYC at ~41 degrees north compare to London which is more like 51 degrees but bathed in the gulf stream (caveats involved, both coastal northern hemisphere east coast cities but a lot more land to the west of NY than for London).
- andersa 3y ago
  Isn't that... great? Europe is currently annoyingly hot in the summer, so getting colder sounds like an improvement.
  - pfannkuchen 3y ago

OceanKing 3y ago

From the link: > "While we can definitively say this weakening is happening, we are unable to say to what extent it is related to climate change or whether it is a natural variation," [the first co-author] Piecuch said. "We can see similar weakening indicated in climate models, but for this paper we were not able to put together the observational evidence that would really allow us to pinpoint the cause of the observed decline." but also... > [The second co-author] Beal added, "The Gulf Stream is a vital artery of the ocean's circulation, and so the ramifications of its weakening are global. I used to think of the ocean as our last remaining frontier, wild, pristine, and indomitable. It saddens me to acknowledge, from our study and so many others, and from recent record-breaking headlines, that even the remotest parts of the ocean are now in the grip of our addiction to fossil fuels." (emphasis mine) Seems a little disingenuous to state in the publication that you cannot conclude the cause of the decline, and then in the press release go about definitively blaming it on fossil fuels, including stating that this conclusion is supported by your study.

aCoreyJ 3y ago
The thing is it's impossible to prove any single event or change is caused by climate change because we have no way of showing what would be happening if humans hadn't altered the planet. With weather we can show that severe events have become more common. I'd have to read the study thoroughly to know for sure but it seems they can show certain effects of the fossil fuels industry but not actual causation of the overall slowdown, which may be impossible to prove.
- jncfhnb 3y ago
  Everything is impossible to prove. However fossil fuels are demonstrably casual factors in mechanics that generate the exact effects we see. Effects which correlate extremely well with the timing of our emissions and we’re largely unchanged on such time scales previously.
- kergonath 3y ago
  “Prove” has different meanings for most people compared to scientists. As you say, it is impossible to prove that something like this, which results from a complex set of conditions and most likely a complex set of causes, results from a single thing. So we speak in probabilities, confidence intervals, and significance. That’s just science speak. This results from human-made global warming in the same way as a smoker’s lung cancer results from smoking. The conclusion is also the same in both cases: “don’t do it”. Nobody can prove that it will kill, but it drastically increases the odds. Also, note that this is not at all unexpected. I remember articles in scientific vulgarisation magazines in the 1990s discussion this and the fact that, counter-intuitively, global warming could result in local cooling in Western Europe because of a weakened Gulf Stream. We are still far from that.

happytiger 3y ago

I’ll take “Things that make me go Oh Shit” for 1000, Alex.

bloopernova 3y ago

I know it's naive of me to hope, but I hope that if a large part of the "western" world is affected by the gulf stream weakening then more definitive action will be taken against climate change. Something related in the novel Project Hail Mary affected me greatly: "I've run the best models I have. Crops are going to fail. The global staple crops are wheat, barley, millet, potatoes, soy, and most important of all, rice. All of them are pretty sensitive about temperature ranges. If your rice paddy freezes over, the rice dies. If your potato farm floods, the potatoes die. And if your wheat farm experiences ten times normal humidity, it gets fungal parasites and dies." Sure, we may not be looking at freezing rice paddies, but flooding is absolutely affecting people all over the world due to the warmer air holding more moisture. Not at all a happy thought, I'm sorry.

myshpa 3y ago
> more definitive action will be taken against climate change a) our problem is not only the climate change, but overshoot / polycrisis b) there is a profit to be made even from the collapse, maybe bigger than ever Nothing will get changed, because solving the problems would mean dismantling the system.
- lacrimacida 3y ago
  > Nothing will get changed, because solving the problems would mean dismantling the system Oh well, the system may simply collapse and not be able and it won’t be pretty. But that will be a starting point for rebuilding.
- bloopernova 3y ago
  > Nothing will get changed, because solving the problems would mean dismantling the system. I don't want you to be correct, but I fear that you are. My heart breaks thinking about it. My stepdaughter is 23, and she's going to live through some very tough times. People in positions of power and influence seem to think they can flee to New Zealand and life will continue as before. I don't know how to disabuse them of that notion.
  - 3y ago

anonymousiam 3y ago

This is an El Niño year. https://www.weather.gov/news/230706-ElNino https://www.weather.gov/news/230706-ElNino El Niño can cause these effects. https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/ninonina.html https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/ninonina.html

beowulfey 3y ago
El Niño has nothing to do with ocean currents in the Atlantic?
this_steve_j 3y ago
The study looked at almost 40 years worth of observational data from multiple correlated sources. That is one of its contributions relative to similar studies that looked at fewer sources of measurements, or used different methods.
- anonymousiam 3y ago
  Given that polar sea ice peaked in 1979, but decades before had minimums below anything recorded since, and this study begins with 1982 data, I don't see how they can claim such certainty.
  - isthatafact 3y ago
    > "but decades before had minimums below anything recorded since" I am skeptical of your claim.
    - anonymousiam 3y ago
      Skepticism is good! 15.9 million square kilometers was the recorded antarctic sea ice coverage in August 1966. https://ntrs.nasa.gov/api/citations/20140017193/downloads/20140017193.pdf https://ntrs.nasa.gov/api/citations/20140017193/downloads/20...
      - 3y ago