Exactly. If you have already outperformed the market, then this is the same as p-hacking through survivorship bias. Which tend to result in hubris. > P(excess

Exactly. If you have already outperformed the market, then this is the same as p-hacking through survivorship bias. Which tend to result in hubris. > P(excess returns | skilled) This is not at all clear. In fact, unusually high returns may simply be a result of a string of lucky, possibly correlated, gambles. It may very well be that what separates a skilled investor has just as much or more to do with the ability to restrict the downside. Meaning that even when they lose money, they consistently lose less than the amateurs.